bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, H2O said: You gonna have great grass in spots come spring with that canine fertilizer Correct! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on Trailing wave is very intriguing to me. Dives way in compared to 06z. That would be a pretty aggressive change, unfortunately hard to trust the HRRR with that given it is coming in from its boundaries. But would love it if somehow that wasn’t a meso hallucination. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, baltosquid said: Trailing wave is very intriguing to me. Dives way in compared to 06z. That would be a pretty aggressive change, unfortunately hard to trust the HRRR with that given it is coming in from its boundaries. But would love it if somehow that wasn’t a meal hallucination. I’ve been watching that, it’s a wildcard as it’s been close on a few runs. no bullshit my phone just autocorrected when I typed east to WEST. #itshappening 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, bncho said: HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on It wastes .3 of nighttime qpf due to a surface torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, H2O said: You gonna have great grass in spots come spring with that canine fertilizer Lol. Picked up 5 weeks worth of bombs yesterday in my backyard 2 grocery store bags worth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On one level, this is a mess of a forecast because the models are all over the place. On another, this is really just a straightforward event where we lean on climo. It isn't going to accumulate during the day in the metro areas and while the precip blossoms again with the low cranking, the broader shield isn't going to be particularly heavy. 2-4" should cover it for most of us, with less in the unfortunate areas on the tarmac at DCA, and more in the hills. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I’ve been watching that, it’s a wildcard as it’s been close on a few runs. no bullshit my phone just autocorrected when I typed east to WEST. #itshappening It's getting closer to us... maybe the east ticks were making it act more like a kicker? If we get it to phase then I'll believe in this storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: It's getting closer to us... maybe the east ticks were making it act more like a kicker? If we get it to phase then I'll believe in this storm again. Low heights ahead might be the bigger killer at this point, hard to say what’s the worse thing though. But the HRRR improves both here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, baltosquid said: Low heights ahead might be the bigger killer at this point, hard to say what’s the worse thing though. But the HRRR improves both here I think. I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. Picked up 5 weeks worth of bombs yesterday in my backyard 2 grocery store bags worth. Shitty job and I bet your dog(s) laugh when they see you do it 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR Absolutely, that’s why I highlighted the 18hr look because past that’s truly beyond the pale for the HRRR lol, and is already shaky. I will take the better result but yeah doesn’t really move things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Is hrrr warm biased this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Ji said: Is hrrr warm biased this far out? It’s wrong biased 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Man I wish it wasn’t a total fantasy. Would actually be quite the forum pleaser. CCB gets decently west and the inverted trough covers people well outside the CCB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 hours ago, CAPE said: I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic. I lived in Annandale (Fairfax Co.) for that one. Was a Junior in high school. Insane rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour in the middle of the night. Goes down as my favorite snow storm of my life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm. That's our event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Kids….this is what desperation looks like.Even the RAP knows where Frederick is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MN Transplant said: HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm. That's our event. On the sideline again, oh well good luck to the north crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one.SREF, HRRR, and RAP are being whipped out. Not sure I feel the momentum sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jayyy said: SREF, HRRR, and RAP are being whipped out. Not sure I feel the momentum sir We take small wins here remember hopium is our favorite drug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Fwiw, Hrrr looking a lot like Rap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yall are blind. The hrrr was awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Fwiw, Hrrr looking a lot like RapAnything you can pin-point early on that’s causing the subtle shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Yall are blind. The hrrr was awful. WB 12Z HRRR looked pretty good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Anything you can pin-point early on that’s causing the subtle shift? Nah. Too subtle and I haven't bothered to look. All comes down to exactly where low sits and spins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Hrr is a blizzard! 12" here Stalls snowing well into Monday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM with some ass hair ticks better at 500, maybe it matters for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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