2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[bncho]

HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on

[mappy]

Just now, H2O said:

You gonna have great grass in spots come spring with that canine fertilizer 

Correct! 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on

Trailing wave is very intriguing to me. Dives way in compared to 06z. That would be a pretty aggressive change, unfortunately hard to trust the HRRR with that given it is coming in from its boundaries. But would love it if somehow that wasn’t a meso hallucination.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Trailing wave is very intriguing to me. Dives way in compared to 06z. That would be a pretty aggressive change, unfortunately hard to trust the HRRR with that given it is coming in from its boundaries. But would love it if somehow that wasn’t a meal hallucination.

I’ve been watching that, it’s a wildcard as it’s been close on a few runs. 
 

no bullshit my phone just autocorrected when I typed east to WEST. #itshappening

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

HRRR looks good, looks like more neg tilt early on

It wastes .3 of nighttime qpf due to a surface torch 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

You gonna have great grass in spots come spring with that canine fertilizer 

Lol. Picked up  5 weeks worth of bombs yesterday in my backyard  

2 grocery store bags worth. 

 

[MN Transplant]

On one level, this is a mess of a forecast because the models are all over the place.  On another, this is really just a straightforward event where we lean on climo.  It isn't going to accumulate during the day in the metro areas and while the precip blossoms again with the low cranking, the broader shield isn't going to be particularly heavy.  2-4" should cover it for most of us, with less in the unfortunate areas on the tarmac at DCA, and more in the hills.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ve been watching that, it’s a wildcard as it’s been close on a few runs. 
 

no bullshit my phone just autocorrected when I typed east to WEST. #itshappening

It's getting closer to us... maybe the east ticks were making it act more like a kicker? If we get it to phase then I'll believe in this storm again.

[baltosquid]

Just now, bncho said:

It's getting closer to us... maybe the east ticks were making it act more like a kicker? If we get it to phase then I'll believe in this storm again.

Low heights ahead might be the bigger killer at this point, hard to say what’s the worse thing though. But the HRRR improves both here I think.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Low heights ahead might be the bigger killer at this point, hard to say what’s the worse thing though. But the HRRR improves both here I think.

I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. Picked up  5 weeks worth of bombs yesterday in my backyard  

2 grocery store bags worth. 

 

Shitty job and I bet your dog(s) laugh when they see you do it

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR

Absolutely, that’s why I highlighted the 18hr look because past that’s truly beyond the pale for the HRRR lol, and is already shaky. I will take the better result but yeah doesn’t really move things

[Ji]

Is hrrr warm biased this far out?

[baltosquid]

Just now, Ji said:

Is hrrr warm biased this far out?

It’s wrong biased

[baltosquid]

Man I wish it wasn’t a total fantasy. Would actually be quite the forum pleaser. CCB gets decently west and the inverted trough covers people well outside the CCB.

[Roger Ramjet]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.

I lived in Annandale (Fairfax Co.) for that one. Was a Junior in high school. Insane rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour in the middle of the night. Goes down as my favorite snow storm of my life.

[DDweatherman]

Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one.

[MN Transplant]

HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm.  That's our event.

[jayyy]

Kids….this is what desperation looks like.

Even the RAP knows where Frederick is

[Solution Man]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm.  That's our event.

On the sideline again, oh well good luck to the north crew

[jayyy]

Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one.

SREF, HRRR, and RAP are being whipped out. Not sure I feel the momentum sir

[DDweatherman]

Just now, jayyy said:

SREF, HRRR, and RAP are being whipped out. Not sure I feel the momentum sir

We take small wins here remember  hopium is our favorite drug 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, Hrrr looking a lot like Rap

[snowfan]

Yall are blind. The hrrr was awful.

[jayyy]

Fwiw, Hrrr looking a lot like Rap

Anything you can pin-point early on that’s causing the subtle shift?

[mitchnick]

Nam time

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Yall are blind. The hrrr was awful.

WB 12Z HRRR looked pretty good to me.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Anything you can pin-point early on that’s causing the subtle shift?

Nah. Too subtle and I  haven't bothered to look. All comes down to exactly where low sits and spins. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hrr is a blizzard!

12" here

Stalls snowing well into Monday

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM with some ass hair ticks better at 500, maybe it matters for us