2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday.  I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside.

You go for  bf birthday but not his friends bday.  Sorry for the sternness. 

[Ji]

EPS AI

It’s rebounded. The Ai still has a long way to go I guess in being reliable

[AlexD1990]

35 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes. 

OMG...this is becoming real. Holy shit

[Wetbulbs88]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 

 

33 minutes ago, bncho said:

Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... 

 

Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? 

Marginal temps? 

[CAPE]

18z EPS looks really good. Getting there.

[bncho]

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

That’s a leannnn NW

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

While it's the SREF, trends are trends are trends... love that the most striking cluster is on the boom end of things.

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest NBM pushes double digit snowfall west to I-81. . . 

 

 

NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

That’s a leannnn NW

The mean output is going to be ridiculous with that look…

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. 

Excellent. Thank you for the information.

[SnowenOutThere]

I’ve been out hiking and adventuring all today so what did I miss? Generally seems like guidance is shifting to a 70% GFS 30% Euro solution from last night

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z EPS looks really good. Getting there.

100% of 4”+ at DCA on it. Caveat 10:1 ratios. But that should still mean a solid 2-4”+ for DC.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Man we are so close….

[baltosquid]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

 

Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? 

Marginal temps? 

Yup, while the upper atmosphere is plenty cold for snow we have a shit surface temp to deal with. Heavy precipitation will cool us down and then we'd basically be pinned to around 32 degrees. We'll lose some accumulations to white rain and ratios will suffer early even after accumulations begin until that happens, and then the ratios will be "fine", nothing insane. So the instantaneous ceiling is probably 10:1 but the event ceiling depending on where you are could be 5-8:1

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’ve been out hiking and adventuring all today so what did I miss? Generally seems like guidance is shifting to a 70% GFS 30% Euro solution from last night

Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder…

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Man we are so close….

IMO, 12z tomorrow is go/no go suite.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. 

Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol

[baltosquid]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Man I tried to get out of it.  I tried.  I'm miserable.  I'm on my 3rd Tequila shot while they are outside smoking up.  Still, I'm not a sore loser.  I hope yall get mauled.

The stormtracker out of town index, or SOOTI, was crucial to these trends. We will build a monument to your sacrifice. But in all seriousness, thanks for all you do and wish you could be here if this does go HECS. Hope you're building massive karma to get mauled yourself soon enough.

[Terpeast]

Welcome back Nor’easter’s! We missed you

[stormtracker]

I'm never doubting the GFS again when it's insistent.  If this happens, it really is the coup of the year.  Every model trended toward it

[bncho]

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, bncho said:

Beautiful

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder…

Nw trend never seem to stop in these parts.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nw trend never seem to stop in these parts.

Watch the NWs trend stop just enough to put DC in the precip minimum.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch the NWs trend stop just enough to put DC in the precip minimum.

Could be wrong but I have a feeling these ticks don’t stop, it’s been ticking for many cycles now.  

[Snowman.]

18z EPS

[IUsedToHateCold]

I believe

In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago
In a storm nobody thought was possible
In a Nat 20 out of nowhere
In models that are trending in the right direction for once
In a chance for an HECS
00z is when we're going to reel it in. 
@bncho's riveting pbp

Bring it home. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. 

Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe?

[Imgoinhungry]

Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it?


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