WEATHER53 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday. I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside. You go for bf birthday but not his friends bday. Sorry for the sternness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 EPS AIIt’s rebounded. The Ai still has a long way to go I guess in being reliable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 35 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Correct! I do think there’s a limit right now for west of the Bay, but sky is the limit for the Delmarva. I would kill to be on eastern LI or Souteast Mass for this sucker. I really like the look for DE. They should be preparing for an onslaught Sunday evening into the overnight. Tons of mashed potatoes. OMG...this is becoming real. Holy shit 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Effects of the warm Chesapeake Bay are obvious. 33 minutes ago, bncho said: Track is trending NW but big totals are shifting SW... Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? Marginal temps? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18z EPS looks really good. Getting there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: That’s a leannnn NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: While it's the SREF, trends are trends are trends... love that the most striking cluster is on the boom end of things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest NBM pushes double digit snowfall west to I-81. . . NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, LeesburgWx said: That’s a leannnn NW The mean output is going to be ridiculous with that look… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MillvilleWx said: NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. Excellent. Thank you for the information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I’ve been out hiking and adventuring all today so what did I miss? Generally seems like guidance is shifting to a 70% GFS 30% Euro solution from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z EPS looks really good. Getting there. 100% of 4”+ at DCA on it. Caveat 10:1 ratios. But that should still mean a solid 2-4”+ for DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, bncho said: Man we are so close…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? Marginal temps? Yup, while the upper atmosphere is plenty cold for snow we have a shit surface temp to deal with. Heavy precipitation will cool us down and then we'd basically be pinned to around 32 degrees. We'll lose some accumulations to white rain and ratios will suffer early even after accumulations begin until that happens, and then the ratios will be "fine", nothing insane. So the instantaneous ceiling is probably 10:1 but the event ceiling depending on where you are could be 5-8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I’ve been out hiking and adventuring all today so what did I miss? Generally seems like guidance is shifting to a 70% GFS 30% Euro solution from last night Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder… 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Man we are so close…. IMO, 12z tomorrow is go/no go suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Man I tried to get out of it. I tried. I'm miserable. I'm on my 3rd Tequila shot while they are outside smoking up. Still, I'm not a sore loser. I hope yall get mauled. The stormtracker out of town index, or SOOTI, was crucial to these trends. We will build a monument to your sacrifice. But in all seriousness, thanks for all you do and wish you could be here if this does go HECS. Hope you're building massive karma to get mauled yourself soon enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Welcome back Nor’easter’s! We missed you 10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'm never doubting the GFS again when it's insistent. If this happens, it really is the coup of the year. Every model trended toward it 10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thinks that fair. Will NW trends stop now or continue is the big question. What’s nice for the metros right now is that the euro has the best IVT right through the area and the gfs gets us coastal love. So I feel we’re in a pretty good spot. Wish it was 3-5F colder… Nw trend never seem to stop in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nw trend never seem to stop in these parts. Watch the NWs trend stop just enough to put DC in the precip minimum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch the NWs trend stop just enough to put DC in the precip minimum. Could be wrong but I have a feeling these ticks don’t stop, it’s been ticking for many cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I believe In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago In a storm nobody thought was possible In a Nat 20 out of nowhere In models that are trending in the right direction for once In a chance for an HECS 00z is when we're going to reel it in. @bncho's riveting pbp Bring it home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios. Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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