February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[SnowDaze]

They used the B word.

 

[The Iceman]

Winter storm warning for 10-16” in my backyard, can’t wait to see the map in the morning 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

PAZ070-071-101>106-212100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1200Z-260223T2300Z/
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Morrisville, Kennett Square,
Pottstown, West Chester, Oxford, Norristown, Media, Philadelphia,
Collegeville, Chalfont, Perkasie, Lansdale, and Honey Brook
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
  hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and
  drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[Ralph Wiggum]

Appears guidance is converging on a solution now somewhere between the CMC and the GFS camps. Euro being the extreme eastern/least snowy outlier and the NAM being the extreme on the opposite side.

Pretty much what @Newman and I have been talking about for a couple of days with Central DE to S NJ and shore points being the bullseye and points N and W still a MECS thru SE PA.

If Im guessing right now at this hour, 'around a foot' seems a reasonable call imby in Warminster/Ivyland. My folks in Cape May otoh....1-2' easy.

[Fields27]

6z gfs is noise level change im terms of track. However it did cut back totals a smidge. How far west that CCB gets is going to cause chaos. Verbatim with kutchera, western Berks get 7" and eastern gets 2 ft lol.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[Fields27]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS

 

[snowwors2]

Ralph, I too, woke up to go pee BUT, did more than I bargained for, IN MY BED,  after reading your initial NAM “poo” post…

THANKS‼️

[Fields27]

Nam kutchera is just stupid insane totals. But again has the edge of Ccb in a similar spot to gfs. Western Berks 9" and eastern 26". Kutchera of course. 

[The Iceman]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Appears guidance is converging on a solution now somewhere between the CMC and the GFS camps. Euro being the extreme eastern/least snowy outlier and the NAM being the extreme on the opposite side.

Pretty much what @Newman and I have been talking about for a couple of days with Central DE to S NJ and shore points being the bullseye and points N and W still a MECS thru SE PA.

If Im guessing right now at this hour, 'around a foot' seems a reasonable call imby in Warminster/Ivyland. My folks in Cape May otoh....1-2' easy.

I think mt holly is spot on, 10 to 16” in SE PA seems right. 16-24” in Jersey with largest totals towards the coast. 

[Roger Smith]

If the GFS verified verbatim there would probably be 60-70 mph wind gusts along the NJ coast, when you get pressure falls that rapidly the wind tends to overperform the usual gradient rules which might suggest 40-50. 

There could easily be 30 inches of snow in parts of central NJ also (if there is 100% verification). I would expect that to taper off to 15" by Allentown to n/c MD, so PHL around 24". What is the all-time record snow (storm total) for PHL or any other location in the vicinity? I would be grateful if anyone could post a top ten, partly for comparison and then I could look at analogues (I know there's an analogue list available but they tend to cut those off after a lot of historic 100-150 year storms, for which there are still maps available). I can see some similarity in the track evolution of this with the Blizzard of March 1888 but the heaviest snow with this could fall earlier in the cycle (meaning NJ instead of CT). 

[ncforecaster89]

29 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

If the GFS verified verbatim there would probably be 60-70 mph wind gusts along the NJ coast, when you get pressure falls that rapidly the wind tends to overperform the usual gradient rules which might suggest 40-50. 

There could easily be 30 inches of snow in parts of central NJ also (if there is 100% verification). I would expect that to taper off to 15" by Allentown to n/c MD, so PHL around 24". What is the all-time record snow (storm total) for PHL or any other location in the vicinity? I would be grateful if anyone could post a top ten, partly for comparison and then I could look at analogues (I know there's an analogue list available but they tend to cut those off after a lot of historic 100-150 year storms, for which there are still maps available). I can see some similarity in the track evolution of this with the Blizzard of March 1888 but the heaviest snow with this could fall earlier in the cycle (meaning NJ instead of CT). 

Here’s the data corresponding to the only two locations whereby I personally compiled top 10 lists a couple of years ago for this general area:  

Philadelphia, PA: 

1) 31.0” Jan. 6-8, 1996 

2) 28.5” Feb. 5-6, 2010 

3) 23.2” Dec. 19-20, 2009 

4) 22.4” Jan. 23-24, 2016 

5) 21.3” Feb. 11-12, 1983 

6) 21.0” Dec. 25-26, 1909 

7) 19.4” April 3-4, 1915 

8. 18.9” Feb. 12-14, 1899

9. 18.7” Feb. 16-17, 2003 

10. 16.7” Jan. 22-24, 1935 

 

New Brunswick, NJ: 

1. 26.9 inches January 2016
2. 22.6 inches January 1996
3. 20.9 inches Feb 2003
4. 20.8 inches Feb 1961
5. 20.7 inches Feb 2006
6. 20 inches Feb 1899 
7. 19.5 inches December 1947 
8. 19.5 inches Feb 2010
9. 18.5 inches Dec 1948
10. 17.9 inches Feb 1983
11. 17.0 inches Jan 2011 

[Voyager]

50 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Nam kutchera is just stupid insane totals. But again has the edge of Ccb in a similar spot to gfs. Western Berks 9" and eastern 26". Kutchera of course. 

My second water load goes to Lucerne Dairy near Lansdale on Monday. Should get there around 1pm. I wonder how that's going to be if the crazy totals verify...

[Newman]

I have a very hard time believing the Euro would be as east as it is with what it's giving us at the upper levels. It's essentially lock step with other guidance now, perhaps 20-25 miles further east with the h7 low passage. For folks in the Lehigh Valley and Berks, yes those 20-25 miles could be the difference between 6-8" or 12-16". For Philly SE, I think the Euro is still catching up

[Heisy]

Starting to think the euro/cmc blend is right and we’ll start to see the gfs/nam start trending towards them. They’re just the better models especially at this range. Still a 5-10” snow event for Philly with 10-16” E NJ.

I don’t buy the NAM when it’s now all alone. The 00z models probably the high mark of the event.

In the end though Boston will get the most snow out of everyone, as always, bastads

[MickeyTim6533]

why does it always feel like as the event gets closer, the scaling back of  totals begins?

[Newman]

Really the only difference between the models is how quickly do the mid level/upper level lows fully close off. Euro is the slowest, meso models/GFS the fastest. This is exactly why I had a fear of it slipping east... Because more often than not these are "late" and end up being NYC -> Boston hits.

I'm 100% not calling for whatever the hell that 0z Euro run was, in fact I'm still leaning towards a more GFS solution. But it is a valid concern and we will see at 12z here what happens.

[Lucy Pull]

7 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

why does it always feel like as the event gets closer, the scaling back of  totals begins?

Down to interpretation mostly. Always going to have a zonked run or two…ahem NAM that puts the back thought of 30” into your head. If you look at this from the perspective of 24 hours ago it’s a completely different outlook.

In other news 6z Euro and EPS look better. Some EPS members that definitely get the job done for the sub forum. Minuscule differences at h5 causing quite erratic surface depictions. 
 

 

[Newman]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Starting to think the euro/cmc blend is right and we’ll start to see the gfs/nam start trending towards them. They’re just the better models especially at this range. Still a 5-10” snow event for Philly with 10-16” E NJ.

I don’t buy the NAM when it’s now all alone. The 00z models probably the high mark of the event.

In the end though Boston will get the most snow out of everyone, as always, bastads

I would personally take the 12" line right up to Philly right now, just northwest of Philly 8-12, and Berks/LHV 5-8". Points along the Jersey coast will see localized 24"+. I'm leaning heavily on the Canadian guidance which is right in the middle seemingly of the GFS/Euro. I think the final solution is 20 miles west of the Canadian.

[Lucy Pull]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Really the only difference between the models is how quickly do the mid level/upper level lows fully close off. Euro is the slowest, meso models/GFS the fastest. This is exactly why I had a fear of it slipping east... Because more often than not these are "late" and end up being NYC -> Boston hits.

I'm 100% not calling for whatever the hell that 0z Euro run was, in fact I'm still leaning towards a more GFS solution. But it is a valid concern and we will see at 12z here what happens.

Was it winter storm “Juno” that did this last second? NWS had widespread 24-36 forecasts in and around NYC 2 days before I believe.

If I recall the EURO and its ensemble was amped and GFS was progressive and east.

[Duca892]

I’m very comfortable with a 4-8in swath for the Lehigh Valley

[Newman]

12 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Was it winter storm “Juno” that did this last second? NWS had widespread 24-36 forecasts in and around NYC 2 days before I believe.

If I recall the EURO and its ensemble was amped and GFS was progressive and east.

Yes it was Juno in Jan 2015. Different storm evolutions and scenarios though, that was a Miller B with a late capture. Still, a similar final outcome is still on the table though not likely.

[Newman]

SREFs coming in even more tucked and amped!

[anthonyweather]

6z euro reverted back.


.

[Heisy]

NMB sref member runs off same stuff as NAM. This is its 9z run, and the NAM usually follows it. Expect the NAM to go nuts at 12z (right or wrong)

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

6z euro reverted back.


.

6z euro operational looked to be on the eastern envelope of its ensemble. Do you have ensemble mean by chance?

[anthonyweather]

6z euro operational looked to be on the eastern envelope of its ensemble. Do you have ensemble mean by chance?

.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Finally got the UKIE and its ens MOGREPS fully on board:

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Finally got the UKIE and its ens MOGREPS fully on board:

I mean is it just me or are all these models showing very small noise level shifts and other models still seem to be catching up.  At this point it’s time to bring up the water vapor map circle the northern stream and southern vorts and extrapolate. 

[MickeyTim6533]

Bernie Rayno says 

 

3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Bernie Rayno says 

 

3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

Looks like January 28-29, 2022 all over again.

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Looks like January 28-29, 2022 all over again.

yeah, seems like the cut backs are beginning