psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Ji said: NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. He got jokes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Rufus looks more amped through 60 hours than 12z It’s honestly pretty close to a substantial solution. 0.5”-1.2” QPF extending from DC southeast with more still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itselfThe last panel of the NAM has it turning back west (994 to 990), what’s that about?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Cobalt said: It’s honestly pretty close to a substantial solution. 0.5”-1.2” QPF extending from DC southeast with more still to come. Nice event, we still score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 icon looking better through 42 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Nice event, we still score It's mainly rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably going to Houston. I can use the NAM's inch to get out of that You only need 1" to stay home?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The 344 LWX snip... Unfortunately, the 12z model suites did nothing to help try to nail down a particular solution. On one end with the GEFS ensembles, we have seen an upward trend snow probabilities. However, in the latest EPS, the probabilities have dropped for portions of the area. Looking just at 3" snow probs in this timeframe, EPS dropped around 5-10% on average, while the GEFS jumped up significantly. The 12z Canadian ensembles also trended down, and by a good bit more than the EPS. I think this may ultimately translate to a net-zero change when it comes to the afternoon run of the NBM, but it will take some time to get that information, which may be elaborated more in the evening discussion. As described above, there are a substantial number of very complex variables at play here, and all of them have to come together at just the right time in just the right place in order for us to get snow, and especially significant snow. At present, there are three scenarios at play here. 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. Exactly how all this occurs will be the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. We are firmly in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for at least advisory level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's mainly rain It’s definitely marginal, but much closer to the solution we want than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. Exactly. I don't understand it's totally different than it was at 12 Z why was everybody so negative about the nam (and let's be clear), 84 hours out for Pete sake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: The 344 LWX snip... Unfortunately, the 12z model suites did nothing to help try to nail down a particular solution. On one end with the GEFS ensembles, we have seen an upward trend snow probabilities. However, in the latest EPS, the probabilities have dropped for portions of the area. Looking just at 3" snow probs in this timeframe, EPS dropped around 5-10% on average, while the GEFS jumped up significantly. The 12z Canadian ensembles also trended down, and by a good bit more than the EPS. I think this may ultimately translate to a net-zero change when it comes to the afternoon run of the NBM, but it will take some time to get that information, which may be elaborated more in the evening discussion. As described above, there are a substantial number of very complex variables at play here, and all of them have to come together at just the right time in just the right place in order for us to get snow, and especially significant snow. At present, there are three scenarios at play here. 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. Exactly how all this occurs will be the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. We are firmly in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for at least advisory level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Rgem some marginal steps better, better than getting worse 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 So will the gfs cave all in one run or does it slowly walk back our BECS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So will the gfs cave all in one run or does it slowly walk back our BECS? 50” for the entire subforum 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 uptrend from the 18z icon 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 H5 looked a bit better for both the RGEM and ICON but still letting the surface get away from us before we could capture. Rather this than getting worse but a long ways to go to get anywhere near the GFS of even 06z, let alone 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 50” for the entire subforum That would be hysterical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 both Rgem and ICON get the IVT and both in almost the same spot offshore at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Jake Wx said: uptrend from the 18z icon Babysteps!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Climate175 said: That would be hysterical. I mean it might as well go big before it finally comes back to earth and gives favored areas 3 of slush in the grass 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I mean it might as well go big before it finally comes back to earth and gives favored areas 3 of slush in the grass I agree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run! If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Well the nice thing is this will be quick... one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none. Mathematically that’s an increase of Infinity percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yall ready for the biggest cave in GFS history? Bout to dig into some 90 minute Dogfish and some sushi and watch the modern day Hindenburg. Not even reverse psychology can stop this beast 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Yall ready for the biggest cave in GFS history? Bout to dig into some 90 minute Dogfish and some sushi and watch the modern day Hindenburg. Not even reverse psychology can stop this beast You do not need reverse psychology... this is happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run! If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. not sure its been trending north east more like west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: uptrend from the 18z icon It’s not it’s shifted the axis of the IVT slightly east AGAIN! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The crazy part is we know the gfs is wrong, it’s gotten its clock cleaned all winter, yet here we are awaiting it at 18z. lol something wrong with us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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