Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Little bit higher heights out front, little bit more interaction between streams over the upper midwest.

Yup, but it's not the same as Euro or GFS, but will be more Euro than GFS at this point.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's definitely not the same vs 12z run.  It doesn't look like either the GFS or Euro.  Maybe something in between

I meant between it and the GFS.  Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska.

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

I meant between it and the GFS.  Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska.

Gotcha.

But yeah, it's closer to the Euro than GFS so far

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gotcha.

But yeah, it's closer to the Euro than GFS so far

such little differences make a difference between 33 inches of snow and 3 lol

[bncho]

Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol

[87storms]

Seems like every model wants to pop a legit coastal. The problem is gfs is like 150 miles west of the consensus.

[Cobalt]

Rufus looks more amped through 60 hours than 12z

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol

If it's wrong the moonwalk backwards is gonna be epic, lolol

[SnowenOutThere]

To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW.

Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players.

In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro

This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward

By hour 51 the writing is on the wall

Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter.

By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. 

Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

such little differences make a difference between 33 inches of snow and 3 lol

And out to sea it goes on the NAM.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW.

Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players.

In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro

This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward

By hour 51 the writing is on the wall

Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter.

By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. 

Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. 

Yep... it doesn't take long to know where the model is going to go.  It happens early.  We will know if you have something to track in about an hour.

[Duca892]

Can't even get a NAM'ing 

[EHoffman]

At least it throws a little something at us at the end there.

[Jake Wx]

and nam is on board 

[Solution Man]

Moderate snow on NAM through 81, still snowing through 84. It went from nothing at 12z to a little something something 

[LeesburgWx]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol

What if the 18z is even more tucked?

[Terpeast]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

and nam is on board 

Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself

[bncho]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

What if the 18z is even more tucked?

Then it's too tucked for me and great for you. Who knows, maybe by 0z tonight it'll be too far west even for aldie

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol

why are you guys reacting so positively to this post. it was supposed to be a joke about how the GFS ain't backing down

[paxpatriot]

Almost time. 
 

[Climate175]

Not saying it will be the case but this being one of those “stranger things have happened” moment would be quite something. 

[Leaking Gut]

 

[stormtracker]

Probably going to Houston.  I can't use the NAM's inch to get out of that

[Jake Wx]

WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Almost time. 
 

Mitch is 105 years old and has been on these forums for 42 years, at least get his username right. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update 

Why? lol 

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update 

Looks like a…ahhhhh never mind.

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

why are you guys reacting so positively to this post. it was supposed to be a joke about how the GFS ain't backing down

Because people like good trends regardless of the model?

[psuhoffman]

@SnowenOutThere  nice synopsis. People were saying it merges the two, Not really it just partially phases them early on enough that the main energy rounds the base and is focused on the lead SW.  At 72hr you can see the trailing SW still there but unlike all other guidance because of what happened around hr24-36 the lead SW is the more amplified one and taken on a negative tilt. The trailing wave being the main one is useless because the timing is all wrong. The lead wave takes the surface low way OTS with it and there’s nothing for the trailing wave to amplify. It does activate the IVT connected to the departing coastal and we could score a consolation that way but unless the lead SW becomes the main player any surface wave will be long gone OTS. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably going to Houston.  I can use the NAM's inch to get out of that

NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS.