Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[paulythegun]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

The Raleigh wiff for D.C. 

if you think 12z NAM 3k is a whiff, check out 13z HRRR! it shows 0" of snow through the end of the run!!!!!

[WVclimo]

The NAM twins are decent for the I-81 crew.  3k gets precip in before dawn, which would be great for laying down a base.  12k holds off until 10 a.m.  Both seem to have the inverted trof out this way.  Even a bit west of my location, which I haven't seen on any model in a couple of days.

[Duca892]

If i had to venture a guess including areas like SE Pennsylvania, Watches will go up either around 12pm or the 4pm update. It is warranted at this point and can always be downgraded especially in the SE PA regions. 

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Agree - just the NAM has 3-5" OTG for DC proper at the time. Stuff to resolve there. Willing to blend the two for now and rely on 3k tomorrow

Could always make it a heckuva chase... start in the Shenandoah's, drive to assateague... 

I’ll be honest….we here near dc need to wait for nighttime for any real shot.

[WxUSAF]

3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z. 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Nah IMO with the temp profiles and this thing looking very coastal (I don't think we get the tilt early enough to bring it too far west of I-95) I think this is more of an advisory event for us unfortunately. 

Criteria for LWX is 5" - then again a watch means it only needs to be "possible" so... 

yea a watch dude--not a warning. 90% of watches get downgraded anyway in our area

[WxMan1]

As y'all have noted, it will all come down to the rates. While not quite the same sfc low track (at least what's being forecasted), the Sun night-Mon morning snow Feb 22-23 1987 was one that I remember where rates overcame surface temps around 33 during the storm in the metros. The high was actually a balmy 48F at DCA 7 or so hours before the snow started. Areas north and east were able to cash in much better in this event because of their thermals. I believe this event gave parts of southern PA over 20".

Low was more tucked towards the VA Capes initially. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM looks like it’s really starting to crank as it ends. Temp drops fast the last couple hours of the run approaching 0z Monday. Shows snow for a lot of the area all day Sunday but with temps of 35-36…that won’t do it. So white rain during the day except for coldest spots and then accumulating after 22-0z. 

im actually okay with that. I am playing electric guitar at church sunday and dont want to miss that @Maestrobjwa

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’ll be honest….we here near dc need to wait for nighttime for any real shot.

Then we need to get the GFS to slow down or we need to create our own cold air

Or drive west 

[MillvilleWx]

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times. 

[Ji]

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times. 

Paint those pretty colors right over HoCo plz. TIA!

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times. 

[WxMan1]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times. 

Agreed. I also think most of the accumulation would come after 22Z anyway, when sun angle won't be as much of a factor, coinciding with that backside deformation/CCB. That 22-12Z timeframe is when we can cash in the most, not coincidentally, when the sun is down. 

I'll see you tomorrow morning at work! 

[Shad]

Cautiously optimistic down here on the northern neck, VA   This coastal really needs to get cranking to crash the temps for us here in eastern VA......models seem to be in good agreement that we at least get 2-4 inches of wet snow............thankfully this will not be an ice event.  We just dethawed from the Jan 25 ice storm a few days ago 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Man issuing his own watches.  I love this hobby 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

im actually okay with that. I am playing electric guitar at church sunday and dont want to miss that @Maestrobjwa

This one is legit mixed feelings for me...as the pastor at my current church is retiring and this is her last Sunday (and we were already out for 4 Sundays before this week largely because of the lack of street parking). And the thing is, we have a lot of older folks at the church that get spooked if there are flakes--sticking or non-sticking alike...and they end up canceling. Definitely gotta keep an eye on this.

[Interstate]

The ICON is too late with the negative tilt

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Interstate said:

The ICON is too late with the negative tilt

It’s a progressive model 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The ICON is too late with the negative tilt

It shifted the right way for us though.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The ICON is too late with the negative tilt

Seems like things like a bit of a broader trough that takes some more time to tilt at 12z. I’m not too concerned, could shift back and we’re still waiting for the GFS, UK and Euro… those will be telling. But I’d like to see something narrower. Wall to wall broadening would be a pretty tough look for any coastal action.

[paulythegun]

16 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Nah IMO with the temp profiles and this thing looking very coastal (I don't think we get the tilt early enough to bring it too far west of I-95) I think this is more of an advisory event for us unfortunately. 

Criteria for LWX is 5" - then again a watch means it only needs to be "possible" so... 

I kind of love these debates. I guess with Monday rush hour potentially in play (albeit barely), they can use their discretion and go under the 5" floor for a warning? Rare that they'd do that with the watch though. But yeah the actual NWS forecast right now is 1" through 7am Monday so gotta see that move up first....and it's going to FLY above freezing so fast monday....

[Shad]

improvements on the ICON but still going to be a couple degrees too warm for too much of the storm.......up next King GFS

[baltosquid]

RGEM is pretty much steady as she goes.

Edit: drier but really looking at the h5 and low track (former very similar, latter a bit west) it’s hard to say it’s not noise. IVT is gonna be tough to nail down.

[rjvanals]

RGEM has a narrow corridor that the IVT hits pretty hard 

[RickinBaltimore]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This one is legit mixed feelings for me...as the pastor at my current church is retiring and this is her last Sunday (and we were already out for 4 Sundays before this week largely because of the lack of street parking). And the thing is, we have a lot of older folks at the church that get spooked if there are flakes--sticking or non-sticking alike...and they end up canceling. Definitely gotta keep an eye on this.

Yeah and like I said before MMEA All State is at Morgan on Sunday and there are 4 performances. Those kids are already in Baltimore for the weekend, and go hoem after those shows. Will make for an interesting call.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

RGEM has a narrow corridor that the IVT hits pretty hard 

IVT after dark is probably the best non-GFS solution that's on the table

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Yeah and like I said before MMEA All State is at Morgan on Sunday and there are 4 performances. Those kids are already in Baltimore for the weekend, and go hoem after those shows. Will make for an interesting call.

Ohh they're at Morgan this year? Awesome! (I live not far from there). Yeah certainly one to watch...although on a weather note I'm not sure I like the idea of relying on that IVT...

[paulythegun]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

improvements on the ICON but still going to be a couple degrees too warm for too much of the storm.......up next King GFS

Wetbulbs for Sunday 7pm, DC: 

• ICON: 34F
• RGEM: 35F
• NAM3k: 33F
• ECMWF (6z): 33F
• GFS (6z) 32F

[baltosquid]

ICON-EPS ticked west with member lows.