Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Interstate]

Just now, GreyHat said:

You don't know me and I don't care to know you. 

I think someone needs a timeout

[GreyHat]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I stuck up for you getting a hard time from people a few weeks ago, but this morning you’re bringing the heat upon yourself…

Thanks, but I didn't start with the negative comments on anyone. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

I seriously think this guy hates snow he's always a downer .   Every model could be showing a blizzard and he's gonna  say"  well because  the butterfly's in China are flying upside down it's probably gonna rain but that's ok everyone's water tables will be good "

[ifindppl]

So, what about the weather?

[LordBaltimore]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

Wet ground matters because it increases conducivity. But then that becomes a factor of ground temperature which is still quite cold because of the snowpack. It's not nearly as much of a factor as it normally is

[GreyHat]

Just now, Interstate said:

I think someone needs a timeout

Nice to see a picture of you.

How this went from talking about the weather. To negative comments on someone who didn't say anything negative to anyone. 

 

If you all stop I go away again.  May only ask a question here and there.

[Interstate]

The NAM at H5@15 is more robust out west

[osfan24]

It’s NAM time. Let’s see if it can push west a little more from 6z.

[Duca892]

Can a brotha buy a NAM'ing please. 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, LordBaltimore said:

Wet ground matters because it increases conducivity. But then that becomes a factor of ground temperature which is still quite cold because of the snowpack. It's not nearly as much of a factor as it normally is

Thank you for the additional info.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It’s NAM time. Let’s see if it can push west a little more from 6z.

6z was a good move, need to keep the beat going. 

[GaWx]

6Z SV AI-Weathernext 10:1 mean (see below) as well as the 0Z and 18Z have been consistent on going with ~5” for DC: perhaps that would imply ~4” Kuchera, which seems to be a reasonable possibility at this stage (significant event if it verifies)

[winter_warlock]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

6z was a good move, need to keep the beat going. 

Amen brother!!!

[Interstate]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

6z was a good move, need to keep the beat going. 

Looks better to me on the H5@18

[LP08]

Temps in this scenario are all driven by rates/coastal.  If we miss the main coastal, wherever the IVT sets up is going to be big winners and losers.  Under it? 31/32 and pounding, edge of it? 34/35 and snizzle. It wouldn’t be a broad accumulation.

[mappy]

Okay that’s enough yall. The back and forth with GH is stupid. Ignore and move along 

[MacChump]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs 

best use of this gif in history of the interwebs

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Temps in this scenario are all driven by rates/coastal.  If we miss the main coastal, wherever the IVT sets up is going to be big winners and losers.  Under it? 31/32 and pounding, edge of it? 34/35 and snizzle. It wouldn’t be a broad accumulation.

I think this is broadly right but I think after dark it won’t be quite that bad…but yes on the general winners and losers gist 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Shortwave over the midwest look better consolidated at 33, I would think that's better, but I am not very intelligent so I may be very wrong. 

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

You don't know me and I don't care to know you. 

I am inconsolable.  Thanks for ruining my morning. 

[psuhoffman]

Sorry if it’s been posted but the SREF said folks this morning 

Went from this….

to this! 

 

[psuhoffman]

@GreyHat can’t even blame me this time I laid off ya.   But when it’s everyone else maybe it’s just you!  

[LP08]

At 42. Trough not quite as sharp as 6z. Coastal might climb a bit before capture?

[EstorilM]

18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Temps in this scenario are all driven by rates/coastal.  If we miss the main coastal, wherever the IVT sets up is going to be big winners and losers.  Under it? 31/32 and pounding, edge of it? 34/35 and snizzle. It wouldn’t be a broad accumulation.

This has been my thought all along, which is why I haven't even looked at this thread till right now.  We need the phase, the block, the trough to go negative, blah blah - even then temps are going to be close. I'm not being a "downer" but statistically the odds of everything coming to fruition are almost zero, and we literally need every element for this to be snow - otherwise it's (beneficial) rain, and / or wet snow melting on contact. 

I'm trying to stay grounded here; I've been blown up on social media for the last 24hr about a 3' monster snowstorm because of what the GFS showed lol. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, LP08 said:

At 42. Trough not quite as sharp as 6z. Coastal might climb a bit before capture?

Yeah heights higher out front but broader trough. Not sure how it will respond

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@GreyHat can’t even blame me this time I laid off ya.   But when it’s everyone else maybe it’s just you!  

Not blaming you, you didn't start with negative comments. 

Maybe everyone would be better off following Mappy advice.

 

mappy

Posted 4 minutes ago

Okay that’s enough yall. The back and forth with GH is stupid. Ignore and move along

[winter_warlock]

    Storms 2 days away.. I wonder how long LWX waits to issue watches. I'm thinking maybe after the 12z model runs runs

[rjvanals]

NAM does have snow here at 54 but not sure if the storm ends up coming together 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

NAM does have snow here at 54 but not sure if the storm ends up coming together 

Good chance with this, but anything is possible. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

    Storms 2 days away.. I wonder how long LWX waits to issue watches. I'm thinking maybe after the 12z model runs runs

They think we only get 1-2”. But the uncertainty is there.  I’d issue a CYA watch and downgrade to Advisory if necessary.