Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

You guys in DC land (and others) deserve this and I am fucking pulling for y'all. Not only a warning event but a HECS AND you finally might but a blip in the void of late feb no snow land. LFG

[baltosquid]

Earlier today we got there on the GFS depiction via the waves phasing nicely. Now, while it isn't as gaudy (read: as insane), it works WITHOUT the perfect phase which is nice. Get enough energy into the southern wave and back off the NS just enough and it still can get a great pass that brings the coastal in. I'll be honest, the ticking east has my permission to stop! But seriously, we had to come down from the insanity of 12z anyway.

 

Edit: to be clear, this is still insane. And no one should expect this yet.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Interstate said:

But is not is not... it gets to that solution a different way... not like it was doing the last 4 or so runs... hopefully it does not keep shifting south and east... but I am still all in.

Agreed. But we have to be all in at this point. What’s left to bet on when you have 2 feet of snow 60 hours away?

[weathercoins]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Windy too....WB 0Z GFS 

 

Super blizzard on the coast    

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

We’re 60ish hours out and GFS calling for two feet of snow.  And everyone else mostly saying maybe we get a solid advisory storm.  Just lol 

There’s consensus for a coastal but the difference is the gfs wants the impacts to be on land which makes it seem like it’s a lot more different than it is lol

[wxmeddler]

Oh man, that's pretty.

[Weather Will]

NWS office

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Man, my 2 feet is down to like 14-15 inches.

Pass. 

NEXT.

There actually has been a slow bleed here. This is what the Gfs did last week when Friday's 12z had 6", and then it bled down to 1.5" only to end up with no snow. Just sayin'.

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

There actually has been a slow bleed. This is what the Gfs did last week when Friday's 12z had 6", and then it bled down to 1.5" only to end up with no snow. Just sayin'.

You must be a blast at parties. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

NWS office

lol for real though. They have to be like wtf as much as we are. 

[NorthArlington101]

maybe a tenth more… all but final 

[Amped]

It hit the 40/70 benchmark this run, so its a perfect track.

[weathercoins]

Has weather.com given this thing a stupid name yet?  Is Jim Cantore coming to DC?  Has Joe B said something ridiculous? 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There actually has been a slow bleed. This is what the Gfs did last week when Friday's 12z had 6", and then it bled down to 1.5" only to end up with no snow. Just sayin'.

This run gives me 4-6 more inches than 18z

[rjvanals]

While the end result was what we wanted are we just going to ignore the significant synoptic changes from 18z in how it got there? 

[Terpeast]

Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west

i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There actually has been a slow bleed here. This is what the Gfs did last week when Friday's 12z had 6", and then it bled down to 1.5" only to end up with no snow. Just sayin'.

I’ll take a very slow bleed if my starting point is three feet and I’m 72 hours out 

[ravensrule]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

This run gives me 4-6 more inches than 18z

It gave him considerably less, if you couldn’t tell by his lovely comments. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, rjvanals said:

While the end result was what we wanted are we just going to ignore the significant synoptic changes from 18z in how it got there? 

Idgaf how it got there. It got there.

[Nomz]

Whoever's on the desk for LWX after seeing that GFS run:

[mitchnick]

Just now, ravensrule said:

You must be a blast at parties. 

It's the truth. Gfs is sneaky when it wants to do a rug pulls. You're in a much better spot, along with all the metro areas since you can afford a loss. I'm not saying it will happen, just pointing out out recent history. 

[Scraff]

@stormtracker Hope you enjoy this! You truly have earned it. Safe travels! Be sure to report back on how much fun you’re having. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west

Fair, don't see a lot of these things even modeled (beyond one off runs in fantasy land)... I don't have much of a reference point for the noise threshold on these things!

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This run gives me 4-6 more inches than 18z

It is all where your backyard is

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

While the end result was what we wanted are we just going to ignore the significant synoptic changes from 18z in how it got there? 

I wouldn't say I'm worried, just perplexed tbh. How are we nowhere close to resolving this at like 60 hours from first flakes??

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You must be a blast at parties. 

He’s not wrong though lol. At this point I might be able to run errands on Sunday while oc gets a blizzard.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Whoever's on the desk for LWX after seeing that GFS run:

I don’t envy their jobs right now that’s for sure

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west

i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation

It's just a different evolution

[winter_warlock]

Cmc looks better so far

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Has weather.com given this thing a stupid name yet?  Is Jim Cantore coming to DC?  Has Joe B said something ridiculous? 

If they do, it should be Lazarus because this thing has risen from the dead.