Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[baltosquid]

Either way it is better than 18z even with the surface low rejecting a capture.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

RGEM is perplexing. I feel like the surface SHOULD be further west with that look? Better h5 look than the ICON I think. But it's further east. Idk. I really like the h5 changes. Just perplexing.

We blame convective feedback. Weenie handbook chapter 6 section 2 titled "but the low should be closer to the coast shouldn't it?".

[TSSN+]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Either way it is better than 18z even with the surface low rejecting a capture.

Yup keep on improving till game time 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Either way it is better than 18z even with the surface low rejecting a capture.

Good trends nevertheless. A gfs hold or close to it would really actually be a massive momentum boost now.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

RGEM is perplexing. I feel like the surface SHOULD be further west with that look? Better h5 look than the ICON I think. But it's further east. Idk. I really like the h5 changes. Just perplexing.

Like an old man resisting diapers?

[Nomz]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

We blame convective feedback. Weenie handbook chapter 6 section 2 titled "but the low should be closer to the coast shouldn't it?".

I learned my lesson however many weeks ago that last fail was

[rjvanals]

All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle 

[TSSN+]

Just now, rjvanals said:

All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle 

Cool thanks for the info 

[Chris78]

Just now, rjvanals said:

All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle 

Yes but there seems to be more connection between the 2.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, rjvanals said:

All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle 

Notice on the models that were “out out”earlier at 18z, as the low moves more west, the IVT is more prevalent. 

[Random Chaos]

What’s with the ptype on RGEM. Feels like the 540 line is too far south for it to be rain that far north on hr 69.

[baltosquid]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Notice on the models that were “out out”earlier at 18z, as the low moves more west, the IVT is more prevalent. 

Yup, bringing the coastal closer should juice that up. I think the only ways it would die completely are if the low goes too far OTS (trends seem optimistic that won't happen) or the coastal comes so far west it's just, well, a coastal.

[Solution Man]

How we doing  @stormtracker you up

[baltosquid]

ICON ensemble also comes quite decently further west.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle 

Ehhhh NAM is blurring those lines. Frankly, we need some form of coastal in order to maximize our IVT. Even if the best dynamics and lift is provided by the IVT it needs to coastal moisture fetch to actually precipitate.  

[SnowenOutThere]

Anyways, I’m hopefully checking out for tonight. Everyone else I hope you can bring us home. 

[Ji]

the new experimental nam==horrible run

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

the new experimental nam==horrible run

Just a truly objective observation, it has been horrendous on just about every storm this year. Had the storm last week still bringing snow and heavy precip to us 2 days out. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the new experimental nam==horrible run

Sounds like your posting skills. 

[Wetbulbs88]

3 hours ago, 87storms said:

You must not have been here for that one lol. Light snow was predicted at the 5pm newscasts. 6-10” was on the ground by the morning.

I’ve said it once I’ll say it again. By far my favorite storm of all time.

[Scraff]

Are we ready? Most important GooFuS run of the year. Let’s do this!! Prepare for a nuke.  

[bncho]

It has started.

[stormtracker]

GFS time.  Probably gonna crash after.  Should be prime cave time.

[wxmeddler]

I'm not a fan of the FV3 core at sub-10km-ish scales. Glad the plan is to drop it in favor of MPAS. However, we're gonna loose the NAM and have the RRFS FV3 only for a year or two before the switch to MPAS apparently.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

#HoCoBullseye

Whelp. The mom group is gonna be so mad at me 

[paulythegun]

GFS time.  Probably gonna crash after.  Should be prime cave time.

Looks more amped through 0 hours

[DDweatherman]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

I'm not a fan of the FV3 core at sub-10km-ish scales. Glad the plan is to drop it in favor of MPAS. However, we're gonna loose the NAM and have the RRFS FV3 only for a year or two before the switch to MPAS apparently.

That’s a scary thought for a year, our best short term model will quite literally be the Euro and then…the rgem? Hopefully we get a higher res AI item to help out.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

I'm not a fan of the FV3 core at sub-10km-ish scales. Glad the plan is to drop it in favor of MPAS. However, we're gonna loose the NAM and have the RRFS FV3 only for a year or two before the switch to MPAS apparently.

If the GFS wins this... FV3 Euro for 1 year. I don't make the rules. If the Europeans are so meteorologically talented, they can make it work! 

[bncho]

OK it's super early but NS looks a bit better at hour 18

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS time.  Probably gonna crash after.  Should be prime cave time.

when the GFS shows 2-4 inches---there willl be no need to stay up for the euro