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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread


Maestrobjwa
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's definitely not the same vs 12z run.  It doesn't look like either the GFS or Euro.  Maybe something in between

I meant between it and the GFS.  Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska.

gfs-500hv-conus-2026021912-63.png

nam-500hv-conus-2026021918-57.png

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To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW.

Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1632000.thumb.png.1c1b80dfc58e0000e4dfcc220f4d795f.png

In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro

1771632000-xou28HnP9OI.png

This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward

By hour 51 the writing is on the wall

1771686000-K6o44YYr5lI.png

1771686000-slbE7PfEfqw.png

Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter.

1771761600-iRURHj3KFzg.png

1771761600-8jvCCjZsy74.png

By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. 

Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW.

Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1632000.thumb.png.1c1b80dfc58e0000e4dfcc220f4d795f.png

In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro

1771632000-xou28HnP9OI.png

This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward

By hour 51 the writing is on the wall

1771686000-K6o44YYr5lI.png

1771686000-slbE7PfEfqw.png

Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter.

1771761600-iRURHj3KFzg.png

1771761600-8jvCCjZsy74.png

By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. 

Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. 

Yep... it doesn't take long to know where the model is going to go.  It happens early.  We will know if you have something to track in about an hour.

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@SnowenOutThere  nice synopsis. People were saying it merges the two, Not really it just partially phases them early on enough that the main energy rounds the base and is focused on the lead SW.  At 72hr you can see the trailing SW still there but unlike all other guidance because of what happened around hr24-36 the lead SW is the more amplified one and taken on a negative tilt. The trailing wave being the main one is useless because the timing is all wrong. The lead wave takes the surface low way OTS with it and there’s nothing for the trailing wave to amplify. It does activate the IVT connected to the departing coastal and we could score a consolation that way but unless the lead SW becomes the main player any surface wave will be long gone OTS. 

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably going to Houston.  I can use the NAM's inch to get out of that

NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. 

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