stormtracker Posted Thursday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:35 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Little bit higher heights out front, little bit more interaction between streams over the upper midwest. Yup, but it's not the same as Euro or GFS, but will be more Euro than GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Thursday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:36 PM 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's definitely not the same vs 12z run. It doesn't look like either the GFS or Euro. Maybe something in between I meant between it and the GFS. Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:37 PM Just now, LP08 said: I meant between it and the GFS. Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Gotcha. But yeah, it's closer to the Euro than GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:37 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Gotcha. But yeah, it's closer to the Euro than GFS so far such little differences make a difference between 33 inches of snow and 3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM Seems like every model wants to pop a legit coastal. The problem is gfs is like 150 miles west of the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM Rufus looks more amped through 60 hours than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM Just now, bncho said: Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol If it's wrong the moonwalk backwards is gonna be epic, lolol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:39 PM To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW. Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players. In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward By hour 51 the writing is on the wall Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter. By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:40 PM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: such little differences make a difference between 33 inches of snow and 3 lol And out to sea it goes on the NAM. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Thursday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:41 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: To show what I mean we gotta watch how the vort dropping out of Canada interacts with the vort coming out of the SW. Lets take the GFS as an example of our two important players. In my opinion these are the main things we need to watch to see if anything close to the GFS will happen. Vorticity lobe 1 is the main factor IMO, so lets focus on that in comparison to the Euro This is merely at hour 36 but we can also see the seeds for why the Euro sucks. The NS lobe is angled worse, and the SW is being chopped in half by the NS and not phased. Now lets run this forward By hour 51 the writing is on the wall Night and day difference with the NS handling. The GFS stretches it out and begins positively interacting with the vorticity of player 2 (our SW); meanwhile, the Euro balls up the NS and lets the SW go it alone. This results in it being unable to capture our surface low latter. By the 72 hour mark the differences which began within a day and a half come to roost. The GFS has one consolidated system with the NS stretched lobe helping amplify the SW energy and the Euro instead has two separate vort maxes. Since this initial deviation is now within a day and a half I expect it to be resolved by 18z tonight... where the GFS probably gives a half cave to the Euro. Yep... it doesn't take long to know where the model is going to go. It happens early. We will know if you have something to track in about an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Thursday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:43 PM Can't even get a NAM'ing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM At least it throws a little something at us at the end there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM and nam is on board 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Moderate snow on NAM through 81, still snowing through 84. It went from nothing at 12z to a little something something 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM 7 minutes ago, bncho said: Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol What if the 18z is even more tucked? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:46 PM Just now, Jake Wx said: and nam is on board Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: What if the 18z is even more tucked? Then it's too tucked for me and great for you. Who knows, maybe by 0z tonight it'll be too far west even for aldie 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM 9 minutes ago, bncho said: Like 7 straight runs of west shifts lol why are you guys reacting so positively to this post. it was supposed to be a joke about how the GFS ain't backing down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted Thursday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:49 PM Almost time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted Thursday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:49 PM Not saying it will be the case but this being one of those “stranger things have happened” moment would be quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM Probably going to Houston. I can't use the NAM's inch to get out of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted Thursday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:51 PM WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update 5 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM 2 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Almost time. Mitch is 105 years old and has been on these forums for 42 years, at least get his username right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM Just now, Jake Wx said: WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update Why? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:53 PM 2 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: WPC has placed most of us in a heavy snow risk in there most recent update Looks like a…ahhhhh never mind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM 7 minutes ago, bncho said: why are you guys reacting so positively to this post. it was supposed to be a joke about how the GFS ain't backing down Because people like good trends regardless of the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM @SnowenOutThere nice synopsis. People were saying it merges the two, Not really it just partially phases them early on enough that the main energy rounds the base and is focused on the lead SW. At 72hr you can see the trailing SW still there but unlike all other guidance because of what happened around hr24-36 the lead SW is the more amplified one and taken on a negative tilt. The trailing wave being the main one is useless because the timing is all wrong. The lead wave takes the surface low way OTS with it and there’s nothing for the trailing wave to amplify. It does activate the IVT connected to the departing coastal and we could score a consolation that way but unless the lead SW becomes the main player any surface wave will be long gone OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:58 PM 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably going to Houston. I can use the NAM's inch to get out of that NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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