Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Lol.

It was never on the same level as the Euro but it's never been this bad.  

You're right -just messin. Not sure when the cuts happened but if you remember last year right around this date it might've been the day before today as we were heading towards possible snow, the GFS was always two or three cycles behind the Euro. And then it would line up. This is longer than that right now. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

37 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I just laughed out loud. Omg, we all are going down with the ship at 18z

 

31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Ships sink at 00z too

[EHoffman]

I'm sitting here with a horrible cold waiting to be rugpulled by the GFS in approximately 2 hours.  Vibes could not be lower right now.

[Heisy]

WB 18Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 12Z GFS and EURO at HR 54.
 
 
 

That rounding of the shortwave is what I noticed the gfs doing at 6z pretty much every other model doesn’t have that, hrrr on board though!

[stormtracker]

So yeah, as others have pointed out the key is those s/w up in south central Canada.  GFS just merges them, Euro keeps them separate.  So I guess we look for that on future runs of the models

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

That rounding of the shortwave is what I noticed the gfs doing at 6z pretty much every other model doesn’t have that, hrrr on board though!

Yeah, just saw it.  HRRR much closer to the GFS by far.   But you know we're desperate when we're looking at the HRRR rn

[Climate175]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same with 2016! 6 straight days of crushing after crushing and we were squabbling over getting a foot and getting 2, lol

Exactly lol. Run after run of crippling totals. It was routine to expect another dumping in the next run. 

[baltosquid]

NAM seems to only disagree more with the GFS over the Alberta low placement this run. It’s a bit north from 12z and a bit less interactive I think. But idk. This feature is too complex for me honestly.

[Paleocene]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What do the weather betting markets have for accumulation odds and amounts in DC?

My wife doesn't approve of me having this app. I'm gonna lay down some cash after 18z

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So yeah, as others have pointed out the key is those s/w up in south central Canada.  GFS just merges them, Euro keeps them separate.  So I guess we look for that on future runs of the models

It's always the shortwave in Canada. Always. 

Can't we just tell the shortwave to behave? Will simple instructions work? Do we need to scream up into the clouds? Send up a balloon? Write it a haiku? 

[paxpatriot]

33 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

DGEX porn was the best

Couldn't tell what color was which because they all blurred together with Atari-style graphics. But you just knew somewhere in that rainbow vomit were some 3-foot lollies.

[midatlanticweather]

Anyone know if we allow the extra sampling to be fed to the European models as well is American? I guess we do.. Just wondering.. Did the gfs get something the Euro did not or the other way around 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It's always the shortwave in Canada. Always. 

Can't we just tell the shortwave to behave? Will simple instructions work? Do we need to scream up into the clouds? Send up a balloon? Write it a haiku? 

Once we created this thread, it saw and decided to act acoordingly.

[baltosquid]

NAM doesn’t appear as flat as the euro at least. Trough appears a bit sharper as well.

[Lowershoresadness]

7 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I'm sitting here with a horrible cold waiting to be rugpulled by the GFS in approximately 2 hours.  Vibes could not be lower right now.

take a shot of NyQuil anytime "rug pull" is mentioned

[high risk]

1 hour ago, WxMan1 said:

Sorry if already posted, but I heard from a coworker that the new parallel version of the GFS (v17) didn't even have a low last night! Are we gonna go from one extreme to another with this model?

          That's not true.   The 06Z para GFS did have a low, but it was notably offshore and quickly trucked out to sea.   The same is true for the 12Z cycle - it looks nothing like the ops GFS.    And apologies for not being able to share graphics.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Once we created this thread, it saw and decided to act acoordingly.

This is why we can’t have nice things. Premature threadlation

[TowsonTownT]

7 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It's always the shortwave in Canada. Always. 

Can't we just tell the shortwave to behave? Will simple instructions work? Do we need to scream up into the clouds? Send up a balloon? Write it a haiku? 

simple instructions
Canada shortwave, behave
and phase already

[Jake Wx]

Latest NBM para looking nice 

[Jake Wx]

Cant imagine what is was like in here for gfs

[LP08]

Well, through 42, i think the NAM is better than 12z, when it was pretty terrible so not saying much i guess.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

Cant imagine what is was like in here for gfs

 

[stormtracker]

NAM def is a bit sharper out front...still not a match with GFS so far tho

[Interstate]

28 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What do the weather betting markets have for accumulation odds and amounts in DC?

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdcsnowm/dc-monthly-snow/kxdcsnowm-26feb

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM def is a bit sharper out front...still not a match with GFS so far tho

Everything thing is pretty dang similar minus that West most SW in canada/montana.  GFS brings it in and helps the trof tilt.  NAM doing what every other model does.

[SnowenOutThere]

NAM will be solidly in the EURO camp. Differences occur by hour 36 between GFS and Euro

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Everything thing is pretty dang similar minus that West most SW in canada/montana.  GFS brings it in and helps the trof tilt.  NAM doing what every other model does.

It's definitely not the same vs 12z run.  It doesn't look like either the GFS or Euro.  Maybe something in between

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Little bit higher heights out front, little bit more interaction between streams over the upper midwest.

[Weather Will]

NAM runs on an Odyssey game station platform it is so slow....

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NAM runs on an Odyssey game station platform it is so slow....

so real it take forever to come out