Golf757075 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. If the gefs still looks good, then gfs has some merit, albeit not as strong as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said: GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 52 minutes ago, anotherman said: People are stupid. On the way to work this morning I noticed a guy in the lane next to me looking over and taking pictures of my car. But then I looked closer and he had one of those old wooden paper chip bag clips from the 1980s that we used to use and it was hanging from one of his nostrils. People are really stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said: GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says Have you seen how it performed this winter? Has had no systems correctly model outside 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: At least it's been the most consistent last couple days The only thing it’s been consistent about all winter is being wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. One last shot? Did the GFS also show that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, rjvanals said: The only thing it’s been consistent about all winter is being wrong. Right or wrong.. it's been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On the EPS. Pretty big jump to this dual wave look. There was a hint of it earlier if you look at the height lines closely but as you can see, it really took off at 06z. If there’s still more to go on focusing things to the west then we could definitely score. But remain in a look like this and most likely the two waves just get in each other’s way as the op demonstrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, winter_warlock said: Right or wrong.. it's been consistently wrong fixed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, midatlanticweather said: fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Garbage Forecast System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 In case it wasn’t posted, here’s the SV 6Z AI-Weathernext ens: averaging 3” for this area based on 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, GaWx said: In case it wasn’t posted, here’s the 6Z AI-Weathernext: averaging 3” for this area Remember when it showed 15”? Another clunker model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know? Only by the GFS apparently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know? No but I do know that the NAM is running. At this point I trust it just as much as the GFS! Let's get hyped folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB 12Z 12K NAM looks different at HR 63 compared to 6Z. Not sure if it means anything good yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Is @stormtracker ok? Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up. The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ? Because we are data freaks. Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Because we are data freaks. Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow. Very true!! I'd love for the GFS to be right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB 12Z 12K NAM is a complete whiff. Weak low well off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Because we are data freaks. Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow. Plus. it’s a good teaching moment for what a terrible model looks like. Hope everyone has been taking notes. There will be test at the conclusion of winter. So study up for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 BTW - Did the NWS Disucssion get posted? Was well done with all the caveats and summed up well what the mets here have been saying! KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last 3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show significantly higher amounts. There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up. The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it. Been there haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, bncho said: This is due to the change of cores, no? No. Still FV3-based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Very true!! I'd love for the GFS to be right this time If the GFS magically scores a coup on this one I'll be ecstatic for my snow, but may just give up on this tracking hobby altogether because it's truly just model chaos! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, baltosquid said: NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions. FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Remember when it showed 15”? Another clunker model Indeed, the SV AI-Weathernext has been terrible because it’s been all over the place, especially for an ensemble mean! The heaviest I’ve posted was this one, the 6Z 2/17 run giving DC ~10” and ~12” for its Mid-Atlantic max centered over C DE: Compare that to the latest (today’s 6Z): DC ~3” with none of the Mid-Atlantic >4”: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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