SWFE. Feb 20-21. Good BETTER Best

[dryslot]

We will have tonight if we can't get Monday far enough to the west, Still like 3-5".

[jbenedet]

I’m taking the under on this one. It’s evolved from the 6” type scenario with good coastal transfer, and mostly a SWFE with weak players all around - surface high, primary, secondary are all weak…

It’s also a much more progressive scenario — short duration. 

Ratios look 10:1 at best also. I’m going 3” here and calling it a day.

[tavwtby]

looking at maybe an inch here and maybe a glaze to boot, meh, I'd sacrifice today for a better Monday outcome.

[jbenedet]

Radar looking like it starts around 1pm here  

Earlier than progged start times do happen with these but jeeze…

[jbenedet]

The best rates look at onset and some of the short term guidance is flagging a loss to rain or white rain before transition to accumulating snow. Another reason to hedge against the 5”+ amounts 

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Glad I went lean for CT probably would go down further but not gonna bother for that sliver in N CT 

Maybe 1 or 2 tonight and another 1 in morning? I think we might have a lot of sleet too.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe 1 or 2 tonight and another 1 in morning? I think we might have a lot of sleet too.

ill be lucky if i see a few flakes

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ill be lucky if i see a few flakes

Wouldn’t be shocked if its mostly pellets and a few drops here too.

[UnitedWx]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe 1 or 2 tonight and another 1 in morning? I think we might have a lot of sleet too.

My area can be sneaky for sleet. Kind of looks like that sort of setup somewhere around the MA/CT border 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This could end up pretty flaccid for anybody under 1000’ elevation.  
Hoping for 2” here, but not holding my breath.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

We will have tonight if we can't get Monday far enough to the west, Still like 3-5".

https://youtu.be/iKlD0fOg-sc?si=nGKgj9nXTig6ogHB

[wx2fish]

Dendy mentioned it yesterday, but the biggest issue I see for the MA/NH border region is the dgz dries out pretty fast after the initial thump. It does stay saturated 700 and below, but well see if thats crappy flakes or fzdz for a while before the upper levels moisten up again. Thinking 3-5" here south of MHT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I just be leery of the pivot point tho.  

This thing's going to move east but as it on whole crosses ~75 W longitude, it starts pivoting cyclonically... that's not a "stall" per se, but it does lengthen the time that a would-be moderate, albeit narrow band of production is caused to momentarily situate closer to the axis of rotation... probably southern VT/NH, then slides south while fading kind of thing.  The sounding stuff is valid, but I see that drying aspect as being gradate steeply S of that W east oriented band. 

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just be leery of the pivot point tho.  

This thing's going to move east but as it on whole crosses ~75 W longitude, it starts pivoting cyclonically... that's not a "stall" per se, but it does lengthen the time that a would-be moderate, albeit narrow band of production is caused to momentarily situate closer to the axis of rotation... probably southern VT/NH, then slides south while fading kind of thing.  The sounding stuff is valid, but I see that drying aspect as being gradate steeply S of that W east oriented band. 

Yeah I see what your saying. Nams are both pretty solid, uptick in qpf on both

[ineedsnow]

NAM is close to.all snow here.. wouldn't mind a bit of mixing though to get some more meat into the pack..

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe 1 or 2 tonight and another 1 in morning? I think we might have a lot of sleet too.

That seems pretty bold

[WxWatcher007]

Need that SE flow at 850 to slacken some. Models trying to put me in a screw zone. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

100% rain here a few sleet pellets mixed in 34 degrees.. sacrificing this storm being warm to get Sunday night better

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM is close to.all snow here.. wouldn't mind a bit of mixing though to get some more meat into the pack..

I call bullshit.

[Damage In Tolland]

DXR started as snow 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DXR started as snow 

No way. They are at least sleet now.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No way. They are at least sleet now.

I looked at their 9 AM ob it said light snow 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I looked at their 9 AM ob it said light snow 

Maybe a mix but no way all snow. Sometimes those ASOS stations can mistake ptype.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No way. They are at least sleet now.

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I looked at their 9 AM ob it said light snow 

They're rain now, but did have a period of light snow reported.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

They're rain now, but did have a period of light snow reported.

CC was dirty over them so I’m assuming some mix at least. 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like vis got down to 1 and a quarter briefly so they might have been mostly snow for a brief time or at least a lot of large aggies mixed in to drop the vis....but it was like 10 minutes of vis under 2 miles.

[The 4 Seasons]

Massive Sleet Fest

[Damage In Tolland]

Won’t be more than an hour of snow here before sleet . Maybe get an inch of sleet before zr ?

[jbenedet]

Winter storm warning here? 
 

[Prismshine Productions]

This could end up pretty flaccid for anybody under 1000’ elevation.  
Hoping for 2” here, but not holding my breath.

Yep, another system that looks good on paper but me and you get hosed by elevation

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