“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dendrite]

heh

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, dendrite said:

heh

toxic 

[bristolri_wx]

53 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Hoping for a 3k rather than hrrr

Gotta remember that the HRRR is a good short range model.  The extended runs have a greater margin of error in general than other models 48 hours out.  If they scored better in the extended range, then the NAM's would have been shut down a while back.  Doesn't mean the HRRR is wrong, but take it with a grain of salt.

[Spanks45]

Just now, dendrite said:

heh

yikes...just as I was praising the mesos earlier, now I'm definitely feeling a bit uneasy out here in the SW

[Masswx]

Hate this enjoy the snow south of me

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

heh

Holy smokes. Hope that’s wrong 

[Masswx]

Hate coastals I want the swfe s back screw this 

[ScituateMA]

Just now, Masswx said:

Hate this enjoy the snow south of me

 

[Masswx]

Hoping all models are wrong never works

[Torch Tiger]

wonder if we can morph this to a light/moderate event N MA/SNH?

[JJBASHB]

There’s still time for this to trend back.  Did the energy get sampled that well even?

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, Dalmatian90 said:

1938 my grandfather walked 10 miles to report the death of a neighbor from the hurricane to the state police barracks. They knew the roads wouldn't be open by the next day, forget about the telephone grid. I use neighbor somewhat loosely -- the unfortunate soul lived a couple miles away, my grandfather was one of the folks in the larger neighborhood summoned to try and help rescuing him from the collapsed barn; I imagine there were 10 and 12 year old boys quickly dispatched in all directions to spread the word. 

Chainsaws were rare, highway departments didn't have payloaders, and every suburban farmer wanna be didn't have 30 horsepower tractors with front end loaders. You can open roads up pretty fast when you're pushing most of the debris out of the way, and only need to make the minimum cuts when necessary to make something small enough to push. (I'm a suburban farmer wannabe.) 

The electric companies didn't have digger-derrick trucks. They certainly didn't have the ability to mobilize thousands of crews in advance and stage them just outside the expected impact area. Nor any interstates for the crews to travel over -- once they started to mobilize they were driving through the downtown traffic of every city in slower and less reliable trucks. 

Now people today would be much more bent out of shape -- our dependency on electricity is certainly more. 1938 Connecticut hadn't completed rural electrification (that would come in 1941), so a lot of folks were able to fail back to things like well hand pumps they had grown up using. But the response, especially in the first few days, will be far better than 1938. 

Doesn't seem like Florida takes more than a couple weeks to get the vast majority of power restored, and the places it takes longer are mainly the relatively small ground zero of the storm coming ashore. 

Heaven help us when the next hurricane make a direct hit on SNE.  Even a weak hurricane like Belle from Aug 1976 would be really bad.  Look at what Irene did in 2011 and that was only a 50 kt TS.  And any of the hurricanes that hit from 1938 to 1960?  We'd be talking 50-75% of the population of MA/RI/CT alone w/o power, that would be 6.5 to 9.8M in a relatively small area, by far the biggest outage for the region.  Sandy had about 8M w/o power, but that was stretched from BOS to DCA, big difference!

Since it has been since 1991 for the last direct hurricane strike, the trees have not been "taxed" hard by big wind for a long time while they are in full leaf, esp. inland sections, so that is going to make it that much worse when we do get one.  Sure, going a record 34 years w/o a direct strike has its positives, but there is a flip side as well.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Hate this enjoy the snow south of me

you'll get 15-18". enjoy

[Masswx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

you'll get 15-18". enjoy

Nope

[Masswx]

Just now, Masswx said:

Nope

Take the less-   8-12

[dendrite]

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Nope

NAMs are still 1.7"+ for you

[TripplePhaser]

Observations support the west camp. The center would have to be 50-100 miles east for the eastern solutions to verify.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, JJBASHB said:

There’s still time for this to trend back.  Did the energy get sampled that well even?

At this point, you just have to hope guidance is wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thread is turning into a troll-job by TT and all of those on the outside looking in.

[dendrite]

Almost every meso slashed qpf…fv3, rufus, arw

[DomNH]

00z HRRR looks like the 3km NAM. Arctic sand inbound. Blah.

[Masswx]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

NAMs are still 1.7"+ for you

Right on the gradient take the under and you’ll do better form a forecast standpoint 

[Boston Bulldog]

Pre-storm anxiety is through the roof in this thread as flakes begin to fall. As it always seems to be with these coastals. Models deserve cursory consideration at this point; the most important data right now is radar, surface analysis, mid-level analysis, and SPC mesoscale products. The ground truth, not simulation.

It's easier to toss solutions now than just 12 hours ago or so given the ability to nitpick initialization of features in the storm. All models are wrong, some are useful. I think the latest NAM did a crap job taking a glace around the system, that's not useful

[Masswx]

7 minutes ago, TripplePhaser said:

Observations support the west camp. The center would have to be 50-100 miles east for the eastern solutions to verify.

I can only hope but when every model comes east at the last second with new data it will take a lot and I just don’t believe 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Almost every meso slashed qpf…fv3, rufus, arw

NAM was more like a deep center cut than a slash.

I don’t know, radar still looks pretty good for CT to E MA.  

[Diggiebot]

Harwich cape cod mass ain’t happening Jimmy jackpot 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, RAD looks fine....agree. Just wait and see at this point. Only thing is I do recall when the storm was modeled to be more LBSW, there was a minimum in CT before it bounced back in E MA...wonder with the tick east, if CT is getting the LBSW blob, and why E MA is now looking like more of a min. Perhaps just a casualty of the nuances of this thing's evolution.

[JJBASHB]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At this point, you just have to hope guidance is wrong.

It’s still going to be fun watching the storm evolve.  Definitely lessons to learn from a forecasting standpoint.  I’m still not sure whether to expect 6 or 18, obviously leaning less now.  It seems rare to have such changes so close to the event, though, which is interesting in its own right.