powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Greg said: It appears Boston/Norton put us into that even after seeing the GFS. The only conclusion I can come to is that they believe it a glitch or outlier and the mesos have a better handle on it. I would love to post their true thinking here on this board to see if this thinking is true. Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions? Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no? The snow amount is irrelevant. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For the record, the Thompson microphysics scheme is currently widely used in research (WRF). The RAP + HRRR have it. I don't think this would matter too much unless a scheme diagnosis only a few moments (ie... just snow and liquid water). For funzies: https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/wrf_users_guide/build/html/physics.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Funny BOX expanded the Blizzard warnings just as some of the 12z globals really cut back well, blizzard is more about visibility. If you get 6" of snow, and 55 mph routine gusting, your' getting blizzard like conditions. We tend to associated blizzard with big snow depths. There's certainly lap over in how you can get to a terrible visibility and dangerous scenario... but in this case, we still probably have a wind issue. I haven't read their forecast discussions, just throwing this in 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star UMASS LOWELL!!!!! LFG!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard warnings for Hampshire County with 12-22" in the text Don't hold back baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Greg said: It appears Boston/Norton put us into that even after seeing the GFS. The only conclusion I can come to is that they believe it a glitch or outlier and the mesos have a better handle on it. I would love to post their true thinking here on this board to see if this thinking is true. That or they prepared the advisory maybe an hour ago. I can see it now.. in the studio high-fiving, when in comes Larry the intern. He’s running the distance, running for speed, busting his butt across campus with news of the rug of the century. One look at the koochie and papers are flying and people are yelling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, MegaMike said: It'd be a combination of things, but at 3km, the microphysics scheme is the most important. No need for convective parameterization since the resolution will resolve it explicitly. The NAM uses the 'Ferrier-Aligo' which is pretty old (2001), but that's just part of the story. It's performance w/forcing is important too... Looking real quick, it overpredicts specific humidity below 850mb (+ bias). I think that's probably a bigger culprit. I'm sure there are some articles about this somewhere. You'd really need to do a thorough investigation. Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Guess they’re not too worried about the GFS…. We Blizzard. now to get ALY on board and cover the state with the warning... I'm still weary, I've been down this road before, hope it stays course and doesn't rug pull last minute, or we subby suck for hours while it pukes flakes 10 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 14 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It was my understanding that short term/meso models are weighted more heavily than globals this close in? Everyone has their personal beliefs on this. I use them for identifying meso features close in, but I don’t treat the QPF as gospel. The mesos have crapped on themselves so many times close in I can’t even count. Ask @powderfreak 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions? Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no? The snow amount is irrelevant. I’m sorry, are you new here? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions? Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no? The snow amount is irrelevant. Where’s my ground blizzard warning for D-1”? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions? Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no? The snow amount is irrelevant. That is very true that the amount of snowfall is irrelevant, but they just boosted the Boston area into the 18-24" amounts. Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for Nantucket. Increased snow totals across east central Massachusetts and Rhode Island to show a widespread 18-24 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Where’s my ground blizzard warning for D-1”? Plains blizzard warning style for 2-4”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. Looks good…we go with it now. Storm is on the doorstep, we see how it plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, radarman said: Blizzard warnings for Hampshire County with 12-22" in the text Don't hold back baby That seems a little bold based on modeling, especially coming from BOX. They are usually fairly conservative with snowfall amounts over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well, blizzard is more about visibility. If you get 6" of snow, and 55 mph routine gusting, your' getting blizzard like conditions. We tend to associated blizzard with big snow depths. There's certainly lap over in how you can get to a terrible visibility and dangerous scenario... but in this case, we still probably have a wind issue. I haven't read their forecast discussions, just throwing this in The northern plains get blizzard warnings for just a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. Quite the cutoff there at the NH border. Talk about a screw zone! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Greg said: True that the amount of snowfall is irrelevant but they just boosted the Boston area into the 18-24" amounts. Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for Nantucket. Increased snow totals across east central Massachusetts and Rhode Island to show a widespread 18-24 inches. Yeah I didn’t read the warning, just that I’d be confident in blizzard conditions with the winds even at 4-8” and half an inch per hour. Looking at the timing, they probably started that process after the 12z NAM came out like 90 minutes ago anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I do think there’s a shot for my area to get a few hours of decent deformation, which is what will be needed to get us into double digits here. Some of the model showed banding pretty far west over the interior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 looking like between 5-7 start time here, ramps up overnight, meaning I should wake up to over a foot if all holds... that's if I sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Masswx said: What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? Maybe 4-8” and lots of wind. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: If this busts I will spend the rest of my life peeling egg off of my face for spending premium $$ and time returning for 3 days. I Lost $700 AND a National TV Appearance AND a Lap with an F1 Driver In the Netherlands for the 2017 March Event DON’T. GET. ME. STARTED. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Masswx said: What’s everyone’s prediction for me ? Whatever the wheel lands on https://spinthewheel.app/uTL0HqhJgy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Don't know if this makes people feel better but the 15Z HRRR still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 43 minutes ago, shawnmov said: Glad I can go back to hating the Tzachuk brothers now. USA! The way they chew on their mouth guards constantly is annoying. I can't unsee it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 fake Blizzard!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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