“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

It appears Boston/Norton put us into that even after seeing the GFS. The only conclusion I can come to is that they believe it a glitch or outlier and the mesos have a better handle on it. I would love to post their true thinking here on this board to see if this thinking is true.

Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions?

Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no?  The snow amount is irrelevant.

[MegaMike]

For the record, the Thompson microphysics scheme is currently widely used in research (WRF). The RAP + HRRR have it. I don't think this would matter too much unless a scheme diagnosis only a few moments (ie... just snow and liquid water).

For funzies: https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/wrf_users_guide/build/html/physics.html

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Funny BOX expanded the Blizzard warnings just as some of the 12z globals really cut back

well, blizzard is more about visibility.   If you get 6" of snow, and 55 mph routine gusting, your' getting blizzard like conditions.  We tend to associated blizzard with big snow depths. There's certainly lap over in how you can get to a terrible visibility and dangerous scenario... but in this case, we still probably have a wind issue.  

I haven't read their forecast discussions, just throwing this in 

[cut]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star 

UMASS LOWELL!!!!! LFG!!!!

[radarman]

Blizzard warnings for Hampshire County with 12-22" in the text 

Don't hold back baby

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

It appears Boston/Norton put us into that even after seeing the GFS. The only conclusion I can come to is that they believe it a glitch or outlier and the mesos have a better handle on it. I would love to post their true thinking here on this board to see if this thinking is true.

That or they prepared the advisory maybe an hour ago.

I can see it now.. in the studio high-fiving, when in comes Larry the intern. He’s running the distance, running for speed, busting his butt across campus with news of the rug of the century. One look at the koochie and papers are flying and people are yelling. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

It'd be a combination of things, but at 3km, the microphysics scheme is the most important. No need for convective parameterization since the resolution will resolve it explicitly.

The NAM uses the 'Ferrier-Aligo' which is pretty old (2001), but that's just part of the story. 

It's performance w/forcing is important too... Looking real quick, it overpredicts specific humidity below 850mb (+ bias). I think that's probably a bigger culprit.

I'm sure there are some articles about this somewhere. You'd really need to do a thorough investigation. 

Thank you!

 

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Guess they’re not too worried about the GFS….  We Blizzard. 

now to get ALY on board and cover the state with the warning... I'm still weary, I've been down this road before, hope it stays course and doesn't rug pull last minute, or we subby suck for hours while it pukes flakes 10 miles away 

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It was my understanding that short term/meso models are weighted more heavily than globals this close in?

Everyone has their personal beliefs on this. I use them for identifying meso features close in, but I don’t treat the QPF as gospel. The mesos have crapped on themselves so many times close in I can’t even count. Ask @powderfreak

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions?

Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no?  The snow amount is irrelevant.

I’m sorry, are you new here?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions?

Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no?  The snow amount is irrelevant.

Where’s my ground blizzard warning for D-1”?

[Greg]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Did the GFS not show blizzard conditions?

Looks like it had high winds and snowfall, no?  The snow amount is irrelevant.

That is very true that the amount of snowfall is irrelevant, but they just boosted the Boston area into the 18-24" amounts.

Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory
for Nantucket. Increased snow totals across east central
Massachusetts and Rhode Island to show a widespread 18-24 inches.

[weatherwiz]

Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where’s my ground blizzard warning for D-1”?

Plains blizzard warning style for 2-4”.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. 

Looks good…we go with it now. Storm is on the doorstep,  we see how it plays out. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Blizzard warnings for Hampshire County with 12-22" in the text 

Don't hold back baby

That seems a little bold based on modeling, especially coming from BOX. They are usually fairly conservative with snowfall amounts over the interior.

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well, blizzard is more about visibility.   If you get 6" of snow, and 55 mph routine gusting, your' getting blizzard like conditions.  We tend to associated blizzard with big snow depths. There's certainly lap over in how you can get to a terrible visibility and dangerous scenario... but in this case, we still probably have a wind issue.  

I haven't read their forecast discussions, just throwing this in 

The northern plains get blizzard warnings for just a few inches.

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. 

Quite the cutoff there at the NH border.  Talk about a screw zone! 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

True that the amount of snowfall is irrelevant but they just boosted the Boston area into the 18-24" amounts.

Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory
for Nantucket. Increased snow totals across east central
Massachusetts and Rhode Island to show a widespread 18-24 inches.

Yeah I didn’t read the warning, just that I’d be confident in blizzard conditions with the winds even at 4-8” and half an inch per hour.

Looking at the timing, they probably started that process after the 12z NAM came out like 90 minutes ago anyway.

 

[dendrite]

I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I do think there’s a shot for my area to get a few hours of decent deformation, which is what will be needed to get us into double digits here.

Some of the model showed banding pretty far west over the interior.

[tavwtby]

looking like between 5-7 start time here, ramps up overnight, meaning I should wake up to over a foot if all holds... that's if I sleep...

[tavwtby]

Just now, dendrite said:

I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them. 

so true 

[Masswx]

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Masswx said:

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

Maybe 4-8” and lots of wind. 

[TheSnowman]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If this busts I will spend the rest of my life peeling egg off of my face for spending premium $$ and time returning for 3 days.

I Lost $700 

AND a National TV Appearance

 AND a Lap with an F1 Driver

 In the Netherlands for the 2017 March Event

 

 DON’T.  GET.  ME.  STARTED.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

What’s everyone’s prediction for me ?

Whatever the wheel lands on

https://spinthewheel.app/uTL0HqhJgy

[Greg]

Don't know if this makes people feel better but the 15Z HRRR still looks good.

[TalcottWx]

43 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

Glad I can go back to hating the Tzachuk brothers now.  USA!

The way they chew on their mouth guards constantly is annoying. I can't unsee it. 

[ineedsnow]

fake Blizzard!!!!