“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yet again the eps is a bit wetter than the op .. red flag in my opinion that op is out to lunch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hold on…..

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

??

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

??

Just posted. That’s a cool image though.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yet again the eps is a bit wetter than the op .. red flag in my opinion that op is out to lunch 

Toss the legacy Euro into Long Island Sound

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just posted. That’s a cool image though.

Does that jive or am I off?

[MegaMike]

HREF and NBM be honking. Still not completely in range of the HREF though (still snowing):

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Toss the legacy Euro into Long Island Sound

How has that trended?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that jive or am I off?

Yeah where it’s colder at H7 that’s where your lift is and heavy snow. Good approximation anyways. 

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

Actually, '78 had 79 to 83 MPH Gust in Boston recorded at the time.

I am just saying officially recorded at Logan in their obs.  I'm sure it has exceed 70 kt in the BOS area a number of times 1955-1992 and 1994-2025.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

posted 6z here's 12z

[Cyclone-68]

The low pressure seems to be trending a bit stronger the last few days. Down to 965mb now 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

So much to archive, we're living another museum piece...

Didn't see @Ginx snewx post this earlier, KBOS and KPVD Bufkit from 12z GFS:

KBOS

KPVD

35 omg

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How has that trended?

Tick west generally. This was 00z. I don't have 06z. 

 

And now

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How has that trended?

incrementally better for several runs .. EPS is 100 miles west from 00z with the 1" 24 hour qpf line.. HREF and NBM are honking too , I have zero doubts our maps look great this will be EPIC.. some far west leaners on EPS, mean would be even better if not for some random lows that are 500 miles east 

[TheSnowman]

I’m out at the end of Long island now with the Accordionist from Maldova who has a concert at 2pm and Then has one tomorrow in NJ at 4pm.  

 

I keep trying to tell him that there’s NO WAY that concert is happening.  Then he has a flight Monday night.  And I keep telling him there’s NO WAY that’s happening Either haha.  He doesn’t get it.  

[ineedsnow]

woof!  starting to converge 

 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is your back bent WF on euro. Goes from center of H7 low and curls near ack and off Chatham. Can see that on the kinks of the height lines. 
 

on the 3k Nam check out that moisture train feeding into SNE. The real mid level dynamics verbatim on this snap shot are in NJ, but that is a pure gravy train on the 3k Nam. Eventually you do get the mid level forcing, but with such a deep cutoff…that moisture train looks impressive. 
 

it’s just something I noticed. There will still be deformation bands etc. 

 

 

Winds over 100 mph near that center on 3k

[bristolri_wx]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still to conservative 11-15” seems way too low 

I feel like the Euro holding back is the cause.  It's always hard to fully commit to the GFS.  Blending the two gets you that number right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, DomNH said:

 

At least this was never really "our" storm with a big rug pull at the end like you describe or like the Boxing Day boning. I have little doubt that it won't top last month's for totals around here, but if we can get into a fronto band or two it could still be a lot of fun. 

I''m not as sure about that....

[deathstar9]

 

 

The 15z Sref is insane, parks the low about 75 miles south of LI for 12 straight hrs.  Allows 30-35 mph sustained winds to get way inland.Truly a solution that gets close to Feb 78 (not quite of course).

[Cyclone-68]

Literally looks like a winter hurricane with Cat 2 pressure 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

incrementally better for several runs .. EPS is 100 miles west from 00z with the 1" 24 hour qpf line.. HREF and NBM are honking too , I have zero doubts our maps look great this will be EPIC..

Doesn't look like much of a trend at all at my latitude...

[ma blizzard]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

just split the difference and call it a day 

[CoastalWx]

The euro and ai ensembles increased QPF over the Mid Atlantic into NJ. Shaved a bit near and north of NH border. Maybe it’s trying to mature it down there more. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

I feel like the Euro holding back is the cause.  It's always hard to fully commit to the GFS.  Blending the two gets you that number right now.

Euro is a 11-15" plus ratios for southern CT gfs 20-30"+  so that can't be it.. Just a really conservative forecast .. especially considering how NBM and HREF are juiced and they usually hug the NBM

[bristolri_wx]

[weatherwiz]

I do hate how intense the low gets and if it does occlude too quickly. What could happen in this case is there will be screw zones but its really impossible to know where those would be and how bad they would be. Like even on my map I am fully expecting there will be areas which probably barely get to the low amount of my ranges. Confidence is much highest NE CT into NE MA in meeting or exceeding forecast

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

One of these things is not like the other. Expected - 7". P&C: 8-14".

 

You're under a watch now.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I''m not as sure about that....

Another 20" and we finally get to an above normal season for first time in 7 years.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Blizzard warnings creeping inland. All of southern CT now. 

They’ll be to the border at least by morning . 50-65 mph and S+