“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2.5” liquid here on the gfs lol. Silly 

18-24" seems likely. Jacks in the 24-30" range 

[RI Rob]

Feels like people still have no idea this is coming. Last storm the grocery stores in Boston were overrun the day before. Today they were no busier than usual.  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, RI Rob said:

Feels like people still have no idea this is coming. Last storm the grocery stores in Boston were overrun the day before. Today they were no busier than usual.  

Ya there's not a mob of people yet! I bet by later today people freak.. btw GFS has another 18 to 24 for some Thursday night  and friday

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thoughts on ORH?

I think ORH is in as good as a position as anywhere for a great band or two. I’d expect something like 15-25” for a forecast there. 1-2 feet at minimum and you could make a case for Ray’s 18-30”. Being on the east side of the spine there will be an advantage in this storm. It sort of “protects” them a bit more from the dry air intrsution that could try and sneak down the CT valley if you get a situation like Jan 2015 where the real meat of the CCB is a bit east. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Feels like people still have no idea this is coming. Last storm the grocery stores in Boston were overrun the day before. Today they were no busier than usual.  

Mike Wankum eased their fears

[ineedsnow]

CMC still kind of meh compared to.others.. state shut down for weeks by Friday is the GFS is right though? 

[SouthCoastMA]

That could be the most ridiculous Kuchera map yet

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC still kind of meh compared to.others.. state shut down for weeks by Friday is the GFS is right though? 

That includes snow later in the week though 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That includes snow later in the week though 

Yeah he mentioned shut down through Friday with the additional snows. 

[ineedsnow]

Another thing to consider.. mesos will probably start doing better with the dynamics. I think this tucks a bit more than globals show

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he mentioned shut down through Friday with the additional snows. 

Ah I missed the end date on that. Probably still ridiculous though 

[cut]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Another thing to consider.. mesos will probably start doing better with the dynamics. I think this tucks a bit more than globals show

I think Tip hit on this earlier today or last night.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

SOME BLIZZARDS ARE SHOWN
THE EURO HAS BEEN DETHRONED
AS WE ARE ABOUT TO SEEEEEE
A BLIZZARD MADE FOR HISTORYYYYYY
EVERY TUCK WE WILL TAKE
FOR SEASONAL IS AT STAKE
AS WE ARE ABOUT TO SEEEEEE
A BLIZZARD MADE FOR HISTORYYYYYY

Hey-ya, ay-hey
Hey-ya...

A BLIZZARD MADE FOR HISTORYYYYYY

The season's sucked at the seams
Unable to phase the streams
Cold press too strong
MJO's been all wrong
Every threat has come a-part
The GFS sucked us all in
Now its about to score a win
This is for Glory, this is for old
For even the mighty Euro bowed and sold!

Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo
Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo

Some blizzards are shown
The Euro has been dethroned
As we are about to seeeeee
A blizzard made for historyyyyyy
Every tuck we will take
For seasonal is at stake
As we are about to seeeeee
A blizzard made for historyyyyyy

Hey-ya, ah-hey
Hey-ya...

A blizzard made for Historyyyyyy

We all now have a chance (chance)
To see (to see) Nature's truth (Nature's truth)
We all love this dance (dance)
For snow like from our roots (roots)


Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo
Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo
Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo
Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo

Some blizzards are shown
The Euro has been dethroned
As we are about to seeeeee
A blizzard made for historyyyyyy
Every tuck we will take
For seasonal is at stake
As we are about to seeeeee
A blizzard made for historyyyyyy

Hey-ya, ah-hey (as we are about to seeeeee)
Hey-ya... A blizzard made for Historyyyyyy

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

WTF is this?

[mahk_webstah]

49 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Going to be quite the gradient in SNH. 

Yes i’m in the five stages of grieving right now

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is this?

Maybe some shrooms? 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

A lot of this is over my head as a non met and more of a causal snow weenie (especially in such a complex setup like this) so I would like to learn more about your process. From what I understand you don’t just look at QPF, storm track, 500mb You see the entire system, notice patterns (eg your Miami rule, phase heavy bias in the mid range, teleconnections, anticipating where the correction vector is pointed based on the ensemble clustering etc) and lean on that pattern recognition rather than ripping and reading QPF and kuchera like people do on Twitter. It’s an old school approach similar to another met I follow, Bernie Rayno. We need more of this and less QPF ripping from twitterologists. Feel free to tweak or correct parts of this that are off base.

About your game of managing nested anomalies idea, I want to make sure I really understand this right. Would things like an extreme arctic airmass, intense thermal gradient, rapid phase shift for NAO, ENSO mismatch (La Nina surface with El Niño subsurface), etc fall into that category? The arctic airmass isn’t as entrenched as it was in the heart of winter, but a 1050ish mb high diving into the Midwest is no joke. Then we have the SE well AN. What about the role that CC as a whole plays in this idea of nested anomalies? On a global scale we are a pocket of cold in a sea of warmth like you mentioned in an earlier post, I’m curious how that ties into this.

 

Pretty much.  Yes. 

The important underlying concept is "restoring"   ...  

Any anomaly is in an unstable state; nature is always trying to restore back to a state of entropy, or inaction.   Thus, action will occur to bring it back to a state of inaction.  That is occurring always, in perpetuo, at all scales.

So, when you have an anomaly, relative to another anomaly ...like this week, like -PNA, inside of which there is a +d(PNA) on the other of multiple SD... the -PNA may blind the advent of an arena, within which favors the production of a restoring event.  

All storms are restoring events.  It's just a matter of how the restoration goes about finding balance.   Global scaled indices, don't produce storms... per se. But, they are indicators for arenas/temporally boundary regimes that are conducive to needing restoration.     

If you get this .. you can immediately intuitively gather that when nesting anomalies within other anomalies, the complexity gets pretty bad pretty quickly.   We have to determine the roots, and balance those.

 

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

WTF is this?

Spur of the moment autism moment that has me parody Centuries

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is this?

We just don’t know 

[weathergoat]

BOX trying to make some sort of point by still holding on to the watches at this late juncture? Maybe that is why some of the public is downplaying this.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

53 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This may be the biggest snowstorm I’ve ever seen. 

[tavwtby]

16 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Feels like people still have no idea this is coming. Last storm the grocery stores in Boston were overrun the day before. Today they were no busier than usual.  

my wife works at s&s in Torrington, was mobbed Fri and said it's getting crazy now... still no warning from ALY, odd

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Spur of the moment autism moment that has me parody Centuries

 

Is that a song? Honest question I’ve never heard of it.

[weatherwiz]

Hold me and squeeze me 

[1985 Polar Bear]

21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The Jan 2005 AFDs were probably his best

Some of those January 2005 AFDs by Walt Drag are on this page of the 2005 reminiscing thread: 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Fallout Boy, gtfoh

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This may be the biggest snowstorm I’ve ever seen. 

Donny boy gives me the weenie…

Jan 2005 was my biggest and that was 28”.

was too young to remember 78.

[Prismshine Productions]

Is that a song? Honest question I’ve never heard of it.

How tf you never heard of Fallout Boy

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[ROOSTA]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Donny boy gives me the weenie…

Jan 2005 was my biggest and that was 28”.

was too young to remember 78.

A compliment of highest degree!

78 I was in AZ. serving in USAF, in 15 I moved to FL.

Talk about luck FTL

 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

that will match what i got last night.

 

ill hope for the wed and Friday opportunities.

[J Paul Gordon]

In Clinton, MA. 12 - 18 here? Are we in a good place for banding? This is our 4th winter here and the first with serious snow. So, still new to the microclimate here compared to Worcester Burncoat. Only a few miles away but we seem to consistently do better at least in terms of snow depth.