“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Greg]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That March 2018 event was also progged to jack SE MA on the clowns.

I remember that! Some mets where very stubborn on air to move the banding from the Southshore further northwest which as we know it did.

[MuddyWx]

GEFS a tick east (like OP) but actually beefed up QPF

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The differences between the 18 Z and the 06ZGFS are attributable to noise and are essentially meaningless. 

i’m not even sure this one counts as stopping the trend Northwest.  we need to get another cycle because this looks like it’s almost an identical track. It’s too close to judge. The defining difference is that QPF distribution;  it’s probably splitting hairs when the pressure is actually deeper on this solution,below 970.  

Agreed.

00z GEFS are actually more robust than 18z GEFS.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The differences between the 18 Z and the 00z GFS are attributable to noise and are essentially meaningless. 

i’m not even sure this one counts as stopping the trend Northwest.  we need to get another cycle because this looks like it’s almost an identical track. It’s too close to judge. The defining difference is that QPF distribution;  it’s probably splitting hairs when the pressure is actually deeper on this solution,below 970.  

Yes first thing I thought of was about 20 years ago Will pointed out that QPF is often under modeled on the KUs

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The differences between the 18 Z and the 00z GFS are attributable to noise and are essentially meaningless. 

i’m not even sure this one counts as stopping the trend Northwest.  we need to get another cycle because this looks like it’s almost an identical track. It’s too close to judge. The defining difference is that QPF distribution;  it’s probably splitting hairs when the pressure is actually deeper on this solution,below 970.  

GEFS amped up even more 

[SeanInWayland]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

There's a method at work here. His map at 11 just upped the 6-10 to 8-12, and the 10-14 to 12-18. Baby steps...

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS amped up even more and moved NW

Yeah, I don’t think the northwest trend is really done until we can verify that across two complete cycles
Still plenty of time folks 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

GEFS a tick east (like OP) but actually beefed up QPF

Keep in mind places north and west of BOS-BDL line are seeing precip. Down SE MA way we’re pretty much done 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

There's a method at work here. His map at 11 just upped the 6-10 to 8-12, and the 10-14 to 12-18. Baby steps...

He’s probably waiting on NWS to pull their trigger

[Prismshine Productions]

GEM and Ukie both came NW

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, 00z GFS very noticeable tick back...of course, right as I go apeshit on my call.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

GEM and Ukie both came NW

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Sobering up after a holiday in Bermuda 

[NeonPeon]

I don't mind a tick back. Some of the more tucked solutions, like ukie start to bring ptype issues into play, and I don't like that. The logic is always that you make up for it on the back end,but where I live, you usually don't. 

[Fozz]

37 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

1z Feb 21 NBM output

48 hours ending 1am Tuesday.

Yeah we're going there. Box will likely have big headlines Saturday.

I remember not very long ago the exact spot that’s now in the 24”+ dark red was a nasty snow hole that kept getting screwed so many ways in December.

But in the end, snow holes get filled up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I don't mind a tick back. Some of the more tucked solutions, like ukie start to bring ptype issues into play, and I don't like that. The logic is always that you make up for it on the back end,but where I live, you usually don't. 

I'm glad everything else kept coming NW...GFS was due for kickback...It had come west like 10 consecutive runs, at least.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, 00z GFS very noticeable tick back...of course, right as I go apeshit on my call.

I looked at it. It’s not that noticeable.
Put it this way it’s within a margin of air of noise and it doesn’t make any difference. It’s actually deeper so it’s splitting hairs

The biggest difference is the QPF distribution, but we’ve already been over that. There’s more guidance source is still doing the northwest ticking so I don’t think it means anything yet. We need more than one cycle that and it has to be more obvious than what I’m seeing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I looked at it. It’s not that noticeable.
Put it this way it’s within a margin of air of noise and it doesn’t make any difference. It’s actually deeper so it’s splitting hairs

The biggest difference is the QPF distribution, but I’ve already been over that

I was just on the phone with Cory and I called it noise, too....but the QPF did piss me off lol

Where was your post on the QPF distribution?

[Pennfisherman]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed.

00z GEFS are actually more robust than 18z GEFS.

These include .1-.3 from tonight’s event. 

[CT Rain]

GEFS look better 00z to 18z at least in terms of QPF. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just on the phone with Cory and I called it noise, too....but the QPF did piss me off lol

Where was your post on the QPF distribution?

We talked about it last night or maybe it was a night before?  QPF is not nearly as important as identifying the machinery the cyclone at this range cause that’s gonna get moved around like kids with finger paint for the next 24 to 48 hours.

[8611Blizz]

[hooralph]

38 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You mean……. Cory is….. FINALLY going to get to live…….. What he Missed while stuck i with the gf on the Florida Keys and be even Better…?    

 

Oh wait I’ll be in NYC.  

Go get lost in Central Park. Will be a top tier experience.

[Henry's Weather]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Resemblance

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GEFS look better 00z to 18z at least in terms of QPF. 

Awesome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

DT haha. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He’s probably waiting on NWS to pull their trigger

He is literally the worst meteorologist I have ever seen....I don't which prominent politician impregnated his sister for him to end up in that position. 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Resemblance

Close but not quite in the final quantity. In the that 1978 analysis the 1.5" was the equivalence around 23.0" of snow due to ratios which they stated was a crude estimate at the time but one should get the point. The Cape got less in that due to the track and dry slought of the storm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

That looks like pure trash 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s get those NJ probs up and into CT.