“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to throw shade, but NWS is gonna have a lot of work to do in the morning

They have to do a sweeping headline revamp, almost propaganda, expressed to try and catch up with this thing.  And it’s not just snow I mean, we have got a real problem with marine interests due to the lunar tide cycle coinciding with this beast. And then there’s the wind problem too. There’s gonna be borderline high wind, warning criteria gusts

[MuddyWx]

Talk about a trend

[Henry's Weather]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because I think it be less than 31" but more than 17".

Banding...I think it will be batshit extreme.

These huge pressure gradient setups seem to be banded

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, MuddyWx said:

Talk about a trend

It’s not done until it stops trending too
As far as I can tell all the early models are coming out on average and in blend still ticking northwest

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Talk about a trend

I seem to recall this threat being on life support roughly 30 hours ago… never throw in the towel until 72 hrs out. My wishlist from two days ago came mostly true

[MuddyWx]

Take off the stuff from tonight.. 

[Greg]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

These huge pressure gradient setups seem to be banded

Always the toughest part of the forecast will be where the heaviest banding actually sets up. It can sometimes take it all the way to the day the storm starts to see how they really end up. They can surprise many people. Models do have a tough time with these mesoscale placement features.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

yup general public has no idea what's coming

Perfect example… this is my text chain with my Dad in Brockton. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to throw shade, but NWS is gonna have a lot of work to do in the morning

They have to do a sweeping headline almost propaganda, expressed to try and catch up with this thing.  And it’s not just snow I mean, we have got a real problem with marine interests due to the lunar tide cycle coinciding with this beast. And then there’s the wind problem too. There’s gonna be borderline high wind, warning criteria gusts

They should treat it as a hurricane and prepare swiftly. One day is not a lot of time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

These huge pressure gradient setups seem to be banded

I don't think the "have nots" will get boned as badly due to the 850 inflow, though.....save for the CT RV and to a lesser extent, west slopes of the hills.

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They should treat it as a hurricane and prepare swiftly. One day is not a lot of time. 

I was out of cell range for several hours and came back and … they are still pooh-poohing this in the AFD and headlines. This is 10 hours out of date, 45 hours before the start of the event! 36 hour by morning, on a weekend. This is going to be a surprise for a lot of people.

(The airlines have had travel waivers up for a day.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to throw shade, but NWS is gonna have a lot of work to do in the morning

They have to do a sweeping headline almost propaganda, expressed to try and catch up with this thing.  And it’s not just snow I mean, we have got a real problem with marine interests due to the lunar tide cycle coinciding with this beast. And then there’s the wind problem too. There’s gonna be borderline high wind, warning criteria gusts

Yea, part of me felt like an ass putting out what I just did, but it's where I feel we are headed now.

Awesome job staying ahead of this, John.

[Go Kart Mozart]

ICON a rainer east of Canal Zone.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Talk about a trend

[The 4 Seasons]

We're back to where we were Tuesday 12Z with those inane runs 

Even better for a lot of the models for the most part

[Ginx snewx]

Y'all happy now Grasshoppers. Patience is a virtue. I knew we were in good odds for a KU when the cold average since Dec 1 was top ten. The other 9 winters only 1 didn't have a KU now hopefully 2 can we do 3? March looms. Buckle up this one looks like a beast 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS through hr6 ridge out West already a tick taller, slightly less confluence over NE

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[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Take off the stuff from tonight.. 

Which is zero here

[The 4 Seasons]

Gotta do it. It's only tradition when a big dog is on the way.

We're talking big time stuff

 

 

[Pennfisherman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Y'all happy now Grasshoppers. Patience is a virtue. I knew we were in good odds for a KU when the cold average since Dec 1 was top ten. The other 9 winters only 1 didn't have a KU now hopefully 2 can we do 3? March looms. Buckle up this one looks like a beast 

A few days back you said something along the lines of “give this a day and this thread will look like Juno” I did the haha emoji. You nailed it, nice work! 

[Diggiebot]

With all the ice along the coast will that make the coastal flooding worse? 

[MuddyWx]

GFS more LBNE again

[JJBASHB]

GFS S/W quicker diving in, ridge out west a hair east, heights slightly higher in the east 18z to 0z.  Seems like the NAM/GFS both want to speed up the energy diving into the backside of the trough.  

[Chrisrotary12]

Was just looking at the 30-yr archive and landed on March 13-14, 2018 as a decent analog.

[Baroclinic Zone]

AIGFS holding serve. No discernible difference from 18z.

[dryslot]

0z GFS is a tic east, The trend has ended.

[Henry's Weather]

Any ideas about best analogs? After a brief search, best I could find at H5 is ‘78 and Jan 2015, not trying to be a weenie. 1978 was a more potent s/w and antecendent was colder, and 2015 didn’t feature an omega block. But Jan 2011 was much more miller b ish, 2013 was much tigher with the s/w trajectory, as was Jan 22

[TheSnowman]

Wait 4 Seasons - WHO made that Great video??  And it says Scriabin Etude which only Classical Musicians would know haha, Great Tune and Great compilation!  Is it from 1 storm?

 

The Pictures of the NWS and Provincetown 1-14 are Cracking me UP as I’m leaving Berklee and ira Still Snowing!!!  

 

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I haven’t been this excited since my ex girlfriend was arrested 

And also - I Know I already Nominated a Post of the Year…. BUT THIS ONE IS TOO!    

 

God Tonight is WHY WE LIVE FOR THIS STUFF GUYS!!  And Ray, after being so not on board all week, IS TOTALLY GAME ON!!  

[Prismshine Productions]

0z GFS is a tic east, The trend has ended.

East but deeper

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[MuddyWx]

yea doesn't gain quite as much latitude at hr60 compared to 18z