“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sure, but by definition a KU is an extreme event. Put all storms on a bell curve and we “define” KUs as those storms well above that +2SD threshold. Everything has to come together to reach those upper limits.

Right.

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just read the entire Juno thread.  

When did you start.. yesterday at noon? 

[mahk_webstah]

Fortunately, up here, we can focus on what looks like a pretty decent storm Friday and Friday night. I would have to think that how that storm evolves in the secondary that develops will have some impact on Sunday and Monday.

[Kitz Craver]

Kind of annoying what looked like a pretty awesome period is failing down here. Yesterday was a non event, Tomorrow looks similar and Monday has its issues as we have discussed 

[Cyclone-68]

I think I’m done with winter if this doesn’t pan out. It’s like breaking up with two women in the same month. Onto 50’s and drizzle if that happens 

[TheSnowman]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just read the entire Juno thread.  Hope you all realize all models were buckshot until hr 84. If we get a monster NAM RGEM once inside 84 buckle up. 

I’m a Gal of Fame Weenie…… Yes……  

 

 But Holy Crap Dude .    

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I know that I should be grateful that we at least had a big one on January 25th but after many dud winters it honestly doesn't feel like that was enough. This hobby has very little reward sometimes.

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

When did you start.. yesterday at noon? 

Evelyn Wood taught me well 

[Ginx snewx]

I agree with Tip all models have continued a NW trend.  Pay close attention to the QPF south of us in NJ MD 

[CoastalWx]

This is not close to Juno

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is not close to Juno

Nope

[TheSnowman]

9 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I know that I should be grateful that we at least had a big one on January 25th but after many dud winters it honestly doesn't feel like that was enough. This hobby has very little reward sometimes.

I missed it.

But at least before that there was the Blizzard of 2022.  

OH RIGHT I MISSED THAT TOO.  

Well at least before that there was the Bomb of March 2018.

YESSIR I MISSED THAT TOOOOOO.  

 

Again.  I’m home 80%+ for Winter.  And still this happens when I’m away, and what’s happening right now happens when I’m home.  I’m going to be in NYC, but I guess the curse is I need to be far enough away in FL or LA.  

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nope

Elliot page?

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM has UL and surface so disconnected....maybe someone gets an IVT, ha ha.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

NAM has UL and surface so disconnected....maybe someone gets an IVT, ha ha.

NAM is an unmitigated disaster in SE Canada for getting any type of storm even close to us. Have to hope it’s just the clown range NAM being the clown range NAM. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

NAM has UL and surface so disconnected....maybe someone gets an IVT, ha ha.

Ya that looks terrible  Hopefully the rest of 12z doesnt look like that

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya that looks terrible  Hopefully the rest of 12z doesnt look like that

If the rest do this, game over

[dendrite]

I was going to post it but 84hr nam synoptics is usually beer.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is not close to Juno

You posted this morning Blizzard. If GFS is what you were referring to 10 mb stronger winds are higher and qpf is equal. So tell me the difference.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Also the euro has a piece of PV east of Maine hanging around last minute on the 00z run to help fook it up too.

 

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

The confluence over N. Maine and the Manitoba energy are turds in the punch bowl 

That been where i have been over the last couple days, The problem lies north of here, Its great to have when you have a hugger so it doesn't go up the Hudson, But in this scenario it flattens the flow over us and shunts this ENE, Maybe its right, Maybe its wrong, Right now if i was a betting man, I think eastern areas have a shot, I Don't feel as good here, I'll stay on until 0z Saturday but we really need to see some hits on the ensembles with some of these lows actually tracking over land up here or adding members to the western cluster.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

If the rest do this, game over

Some are hanging their hats on the gfs since it is the most bullish for EOR. Historically, that hat falls on the floor, just ask the pope. Good luck to those weenies.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You posted this morning Blizzard. If GFS is what you were referring to 10 mb stronger winds are higher and qpf is equal. So tell me the difference.

Setup is way different. Not Juno and probably not even close here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m expecting pretty much zero up this way from Monday.  Hopefully it improves 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Setup is way different. Not Juno and probably not even close here.

Why did you say Blizzard? 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why did you say Blizzard? 

That's what GFS had

[WeatherGeek2025]

how's reggie looking?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how's reggie looking?

No weenie posted it so you have your answer…it sucks. Much worse than 6z.

[MJO812]

Im usually the one to hold out hope but I think the gfs folds. The pattern is too messy for a big phase. We have a decaying block but we need the pacific to cooperate and looks like it might not.

It would be another story if we had blocking and a good pacific to slow this flow.

[CoastalWx]

Early signs suck.

[dendrite]

Less confluence than the nam but not sure it’s any improvement over the globals.