“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well it's more than just faster flow. It's more about competing influences that don't mesh together and a lot of that is due to multiple areas of forcing in the Pacific. 

We've also had a dearth of southern stream systems. 

Yes, exactly.

[Hazey]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.

Well whatever is causing these systems to be so progressive, It's irritating...They need to wind up sooner. Turn the corner. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

06z euro improvement seems tied to that douchy feature over New Brunswick.  Let's see that injection continue to withdrawitserlf to the NE.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a ton of coastal storms until recently. It was always due to CC more moisture etc. Now we have a darth of them and we still blame CC. I’m all for CC and it has a fingerprint in our weather…..but I feel this is an easy scapegoat with recent confirmation bias. 

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

C+ winter potentially ending with a thud unless mid March delivers (MJO phase 7). 

April is the absolute worst month of the year (55 44 rain breezy).

 

 

[Kitz Craver]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I swear I’ve never seen something like that in my life.

What a convoluted mess

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is nothing to do with fast flow, it’s just a messed up block, pressing south.

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled.   The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far.  That's not it.

Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise.  Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing.   Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density.   I'm inclined to think there's still room to question?  not entirely sure, tho.   But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings.  When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids, the assimilation may be caused to miss/under assess momentum where there is a lead system in between.  Symbolically casting a shadow.

This would be a candidate for that in 2006.   Not so sure in 2026.  In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation.  

Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday.  Maybe I'm 40/60 now?  say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled.   The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far.  That's not it.

Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise.  Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing.   Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density.   I'm inclined to think there's still room to question?  not entirely sure, tho.   But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings.  When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids  Those assimilation may be caused to miss momentum where there is a lead system to consider first.  

This would be a candidate for that in 2006.   Not so sure in 2026.  In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation.  

Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday.  Maybe I'm 40/60 now?  say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99 

That loop Dendrite posted is telling. Good God is that a mess to sort out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Way too many cooks in the kitchen

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That loop Dendrite posted is telling. Good God is that a mess to sort out.

Heh.. didn't see Brian's post but yeah.  Related to that for sure

[ORH_wxman]

Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west. 

[Golf757075]

Imo, its a brief pna spike. Always about timing, but this time its a little bit more tricky 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously track is one issue, but I would also like to see this close off later.

[ineedsnow]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west. 

Just saw the 6z EURO hopefully a trend

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd love to see a slightly shallower trough with the N energy phasing in more aggressively. 

[MJO812]

Great trends at 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Great trends at 6z

One cycle is not a trend…you know this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z GFS appears as though it's struggling with the convection, as it has like 8 different lows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

06z GFS appears as though it's struggling with the convection, as it has like 8 different lows.

Shocking development lol…

[Cyclone-68]

Weird that it seems the late evening model trends this winter has been poor but the morning after they rebound a little bit (for ultimately both hits and misses later) Just something this novice has noticed 

[ineedsnow]

6z CMC would have been better but only goes out to hr84

[SJonesWX]

I would like to suggest that this thread be closed and have @HoarfrostHubb get the party re-started, since he has the hot hand and well, the accordian guy does not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I would like to suggest that this thread be closed and have @HoarfrostHubb get the party re-started, since he has the hot hand and well, the accordian guy does not.

Yea, hot, steamaing pile of excrement lol

 

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, hot, steamaing pile of excrement lol

 

 ok so maybe that one was a bust lol

[brooklynwx99]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to see a slightly shallower trough with the N energy phasing in more aggressively. 

this isn't what one would call far off

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this isn't what one would call far off

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

yeah it's prob a grazer but hey, we track

[codfishsnowman]

What a weird winter. An almost continental SWFE produces a huge Snow event for us as warmer air overrides below zero temps and single digits. Much of the rest of the seasons snow delivered on southerly winds,

Which I will never forget Charley Bagley saying how hard it was for it to snow on southerly winds. It would follow the seasonal tenor to miss Monday.

Too bad for pack enthusiasts bc I think region wide almost everyone would have a good chance of a huge pack if Monday planned out close enough to crush region wide. That's the last shot this season.

[Cyclone-68]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

And if it hits in the afternoon between 3-5 it’ll be the blue-PLATE special 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

What a weird winter. An almost continental SWFE produces a huge Snow event for us as warmer air overrides below zero temps and single digits. Much of the rest of the seasons snow delivered on southerly winds,

Which I will never forget Charley Bagley saying how hard it was for it to snow on southerly winds. It would follow the seasonal tenor to miss Monday.

Too bad for pack enthusiasts bc I think region wide almost everyone would have a good chance of a huge pack if Monday planned out close enough to crush region wide. That's the last shot this season.

It's now that time of year where the pack decays quickly in the absence of replenishment.