Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Long range Nam with a positive trend can’t ask for more tbh

Huge shift in one run. Had pretty much nothing 2 runs ago. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Unless it comes way west...

models that show a good solution are good models.    Euro was trash model until 18z when it became great again

[Rjay]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

models that show a good solution are good models.    Euro was trash model until 18z when it became great again

Gfs/icon/nam are actual garbage though

[Brian5671]

Just now, Rjay said:

Gfs/icon/nam are actual garbage though

NAM is good for rain/snow/ice lines-usually correct 24-48 hrs in

[Rjay]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

NAM is good for rain/snow/ice lines-usually correct 24-48 hrs in

That's literally it though

[njwx7]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Huge shift in one run. Had pretty much nothing 2 runs ago. 

While an improvement, based on 500mb, I don't think that it would have provided the solution that the majority of those here (myself included) are looking for.

I wouldn't weigh the meso model outputs at all right now TBH. This is a synoptic question that is best resolved by the global models. 12z Sunday is a critical inflection point. if we can get that northern piece of energy to phase sooner (alla GFS) then game on.

[Mail Man]

Let's talk about the RGEM then early on looks good 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Navgem?

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's literally it though

But that's very valuable 

[nycsnow]

Icon looks different at 500

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

But that's very valuable 

Which is why I'd like to keep the NAM around for a long time

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Navgem?

I forgot that existed

[JustinRP37]

39 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know:

 

The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS.

 

Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model. 

 

Just looking at the data here those are scientifically significant differences most likely. I’d have to run stats but eyeballing it looks like they are not significantly different among the big models. 

[SACRUS]

 

2/19 00z ICoN

[njwx7]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Icon looks different at 500

There is a little more separation on the northern stream compared to 18z. Not what we want to see

[nycsnow]

Icons about 300 miles n/w from 18z

[nycsnow]

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

[nycsnow]

Icon way better 

[SACRUS]

[nycsnow]

[njwx7]

3 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

There is a little more separation on the northern stream compared to 18z. Not what we want to see

Spoke too soon - Initially looked like it was lagging but it ended up digging deeper. good start to 00z!

[Mail Man]

RGEM looks close

[SACRUS]

 

 

2/20 00z ICON Total QPF

 

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

[WeatherGeek2025]

can we see this LOW pressure tuck the coast more? What's stopping it from going more north? Nothing in my opinion this will only trend north! Luckily it's a strong storm so I don't think anyone should be worried about rain but only snow and a lot of wind!

[SACRUS]

 

RGEM 

 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

Spoke too soon - Initially looked like it was lagging but it ended up digging deeper. good start to 00z!

Happens. This is not the most straight forward setup.