Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Big changes @ 500 on nam, such a better look so far 

Trending better but looks like it'll miss hopefully by not much.

[nycsnow]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Trending better but looks like it'll miss hopefully by not much.

It’s going negative tilt I think

[golfer67]

15 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Pretty sure this was written before every model caved to it.


.

That's kinda the point...making definitive statements about model solutions this many days out still ...

[Rjay]

Nam has a wicked h5 setup 

[nycsnow]

Nam surface low is way west at 00z Monday  

[SACRUS]

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Nam has a wicked h5 setup 

Looks much better yes but why is it a close miss? Not enough phasing?

[Rjay]

Idc what the end result is but wow.  To me this looked better than the gfs or euro as early as hr 45

[mob1]

Just now, SACRUS said:

If we can clean up that funky lead energy that is elongating things to the east initially, we'd really be in business. A massive improvement overall as it is. 

[SACRUS]

[nycsnow]

Nam is so much better

[mob1]

Snow moves into the city proper at hour 78. Very nice start to the 0Z suite.  

[SACRUS]

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

Looks much better yes but why is it a close miss? Not enough phasing?

Not sure tbh 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Rjay said:

Not sure tbh 

Huge improvement can’t expect things to show a hit right away but the improvements were there 

[Mail Man]

Just now, Rjay said:

Not sure tbh 

I'm not the best at reading h500 maps but it's definitely much better though.

[Rjay]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Huge improvement can’t expect things to show a hit right away but the improvements were there 

Phase looks to be slightly off

[SACRUS]

 

[nycsnow]

There wasn’t even a storm here at 18z

[njwx7]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not sure tbh 

really need this energy to drop in sooner

 

[EastonSN+]

Needed to gain more latitude. Got to the Delmarva then almost moved due east.

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Phase looks to be slightly off

Great run. H5 looks good and yes we need a deeper phase.

[Rjay]

Just now, njwx7 said:

really need this energy to drop in sooner

 

It's just a beast of a vort on the nam too.  Crazy

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Looks much better yes but why is it a close miss? Not enough phasing?

Looks like not all the energy from the northern stream phased.

[nycsnow]

Long range Nam with a positive trend can’t ask for more tbh

[EastonSN+]

40/70 benchmark made a great point with the AI that it closed off later. I think the nam closed off too soon allowing it to stall and move east.

[Mail Man]

FWIW Icon is running 

[Rjay]

Just now, Mail Man said:

FWIW Icon is running 

Not a real model

[Rjay]

Just now, Rjay said:

Not a real model

Neither is the nam though lol

[Northof78]

Just now, Rjay said:

Not a real model

Unless it comes way west...