Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: People here really live and die by model outputs lol It’s insane especially this close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its true Mesos can pinpoint banding and small details this close unlike the globals. But the globals are still better with surface and upper-level low location even at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EW9616 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For sensible weather impacts to the public if areas get 8-12” vs 15-20” it won’t matter to most, it will have similar impact, especially with most of this falling at night. I’m on north shore of Nassau on Long Island and schools are already cancelled for tomorrow. Would be the case if 8” or 18” fall. The high or low busts will determine if Tuesday school is cancelled. Will be a nice storm for most. Would just enjoy. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: No one I95 or south and east is seeing less than 10 inches. 10 inches is not a big snowstorm, not in the northeast. its fine, but not what was advertised. it's like the idiots who bought cheap tickets to see the red hot chili pipers thinking it was the red hot chili peppers....they got a great show but it wasn't the real thing, or even the same music....the pipers do have an awesome bagpipe show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow in Astoria Queens. It's starting to stick to tree branches and parked vehicles. Pleasantly surprised. I was prepared for only white rain till later this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: “Historic” was the kiss of death. However, It would have been a lot more painful if this was the only opportunity for snow this winter. Mother Nature is one fickle “bleep”. What is "painful"? This is a 12-18" storm areawide, some of you need to gain some perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still snowing in Manhattan. Surprised to hear JFK is still rain. I am from NC and up here this week for business, but Ive been tracking this storm since it showed up. I still think, and always have, that 12-18" is most realistic for Manhattan. Hoping for more so I dont have to actually commute to the office this week but it's still gonna be a good time tonight. I'm super excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're getting a storm... I don't care about senses of loss whether it's historic or even just pedestrian. It's likely to be somewhere in between. It's funny, there are two competing concepts ( synoptic ) that are both true. The -PNA never really correlate(d)(s) with this. But, there was a relative +d(PNA) which contains this system. Both the standard EOFs and the rotated PCAs at CPC versions, show this latter nested anomaly. It can get the deed done. It seems these very recent global version are wavering toward the former, more non-linear/transitive forcing. Why that is trying to usurp now just 18 hours before go - that's maybe just the state of the technology. From NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: The main part of the storm hasn’t even happened yet..jeeze people become so negative!! This will be historic for someone another thing i always read when a storm doesn't pan out as expected.....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 First flakes in Elmhurst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The models with the huge totals had the low further north than the others. Yeah it kicks east earlier now verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 been snowing on UWS for an hour + but not even sticking to cars yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: People here really live and die by model outputs lol This happens before every storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Very light snow falling. Tiny flakes. Temp slowly falling, 31.4F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow is picking up here 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, weatherpruf said: another thing i always read when a storm doesn't pan out as expected.....we'll see. go take a walk in the snow or something, youre stuck on repeat lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still snowing at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 32 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Literally zero support for this If you're going say that say where you're talking about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: It’s insane especially this close It's funny how some people say we shouldn't look at models as the event gets very close. Models get more and more accurate the closer you get to the event. They'll be the most accurate right before the event is starting, so of course we should look at them. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Isn’t the hrrr what you want to use right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: 10 inches is not a big snowstorm, not in the northeast. its fine, but not what was advertised. it's like the idiots who bought cheap tickets to see the red hot chili pipers thinking it was the red hot chili peppers....they got a great show but it wasn't the real thing, or even the same music....the pipers do have an awesome bagpipe show.... NYC has gotten 10 inches of snow 18 times in the last 25 years. Not rare, but its a big event. And 10 inches is the bottom threshold here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VlinderF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, hooralph said: been snowing on UWS for an hour + but not even sticking to cars yet. I thought it was just white rain here on the UES (right by the East River) but actually it’s starting to stick nicely to grass, cars, awnings, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah it kicks east earlier now verbatim Also if it were further north off southern Delaware like the NAM was showing yesterday that mega band now over the ocean would have been over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: If you're going say that say where you're talking about.... Fair. I’ve explained in detail in several subsequent posts. The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: go take a walk in the snow or something, youre stuck on repeat lol oh please. i can't take a walk in the snow here....it's raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I already take meds for anxiety but it seems like alot of you guys need it too. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, KrummWx said: Still snowing in Manhattan. Surprised to hear JFK is still rain. I am from NC and up here this week for business, but Ive been tracking this storm since it showed up. I still think, and always have, that 12-18" is most realistic for Manhattan. Hoping for more so I dont have to actually commute to the office this week but it's still gonna be a good time tonight. I'm super excited. Once it drops another degree, JFK should flip. The above freezing layer from the surface extends to around 975 mb. That's a bit too thick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The Mesos might be right but they also might be wrong,,,,,,,it's nowcast time as we really won't know which guidance had it correct or wrong until tomorrow,,,,,just my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It's funny how some people say we shouldn't look at models as the event gets very close. Models get more and more accurate the closer you get to the event. They'll be the most accurate right before the event is starting, so of course we should look at them. Of course models are useful and should be looked at. My point is 1 bad model run after 10 good ones and people line up to jump off a cliff. It's just funny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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