The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

I agree even though I wish it was true

[SACRUS]

 

I would be riding the radar / obs and as far as guidance:

From past storms and other general feedback 

Weighting (rule of thumb inside 6 hours):
HREF + HRRR (top tier) → RAP (thermals/p-type) → NAM 3km (structure/gradients)

[Jt17]

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

At 9z tmr morning RAP has 13 inches vs 9 for HRRR. Easy to get caught up in every model run, but a 970 low just spinning in the same perfect spot for while is going to go nuts.


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[WeatherGeek2025]

19 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Post with a map, so annoying

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. 

The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. 

[psv88]

Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 
 

70 here in Miami 

[Dark Star]

24 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. 

The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. 

it's the stall/capture that allows that to happen....

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, North and West said:

Someone could drop a million dollars in your lap and you would be concerned about currency devaluation.


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One of the best comments in the entire thread. Literally LOLd

[Picard]

Western parts of the area aren't far from of a 4-6 inch snowstorm if she were to wobble a bit further east, so it's really a nowcasting, watch the radar time.
I am confident some areas will get 18+ and really jackpot, and it will be interesting to overlay actuals with the models when all is said and done.

[Big Jims Videos]

Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. 

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

I'm not that knowledgeable enough to know what will cause them in this particular setup except if there is frontogenesis. And I don't think they can be predicted where they setup shop until it happens. Maybe a pro can explain better

[Irish]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 
 

70 here in Miami 

That really sucks that you're not up here for this. I'd be pissed!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date?

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. 

We're very lucky it's not a new/full moon

[BoulderWX]

35 - very light snow/rain mix 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Irish said:

That really sucks that you're not up here for this. I'd be pissed!

I’ll be following along. Home has lots of security cameras so I am not totally blind 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date?

It was a top 40 *(most recent)

[Rjay]

Flurries

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

	20 Largest Snowstorms
	Central Park in NYC
Rank	Amount	Year & Date(s)
1	27.5	January 23, 2016
2	26.9	February 11-12, 2006
3	25.8	December 26-27, 1947
4	21.0	March 12-14, 1888
5	20.9	February 25-26, 2010
6	20.2	January 7-8, 1996
7	20.0	December 26-27, 2010
8	19.8	February 16-17, 2003
9	19.0	January 26-27, 2011
10	18.1	March 7-8, 1941
11	18.1	January 22-24, 1935
12	18.0	December 26, 1872
13	17.7	February 5-7, 1978
14	17.6	February 11-12, 1983
15	17.5	February 4-7, 1920
16	17.4	February 3-4, 1961
17	17.4	Jan 31-Feb1 2021
18	16.0	December 19-20, 1948
19	16.0	February 12-13, 1899
20	15.3	February 9-10, 1969

[Jimbo!]

Good luck yall. Be watching from my post op room tomorrow, checking moms cams in eb to see. Down here in Va it’s nicer after our record 2 weeks.


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[oceanctyguy]

90% chance this won't happen but still amazing to see these numbers from Mt Holly. 

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

Picking up subsidence in between the 2 heaviest bands

[jm1220]

31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m one of those western sections in this storm

and I’d take that and run! 

It’s worth a New Orleans trumpet lol. 

[mikem81]

NAM back to reality 

[mikem81]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2026022212&fh=31

[North and West]

One of the best comments in the entire thread. Literally LOLd

What do you think by us? I’m guessing a foot give or take, with a large opportunity for more.


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[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 
 

70 here in Miami 

White rain.  WTF. 

[nesussxwx1]

40/36. Moderate to heavy rain. ACY.

[SACRUS]

2/22 12z NAM