nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Current view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Gfs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Gfs That is insane lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 “A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 OKX is now forecasting a top 10 all timer for NYC. This 20" amount would be tied with Boxing Day at #7. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight. quite a remarkable AFD. Never seen them mention 3 feet amounts other than the storm we don't talk about here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 hours ago, Metasequoia said: I would love to know Snowman19's latest thoughts. Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 7 3 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see. I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, dseagull said: Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see. I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'. I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this We shall see. GFS was consistent for days. Unchanged, largely. As always, snow totals are always the focus... which has always fascinated me. This will be a fairly historic blizzard for more, if for no other reason than the speed of pressure drop and potency of the low. This is a textbook storm, and will be referenced for years to come. I see zero evidence that this will be a region wide bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Snowman makes an appearance only to put his cards on one of the least snowy models? Not much of a surprise there. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this Because you like what it says. You can’t believe a storm can be this catastrophic. But we learned with Sandy that indeed, things can sometimes be catastrophic. But the experts who do this professionally are indeed worried and cannot just dismiss repeated modeling showing a widespread catastrophic snowfall. They would be remiss not to. Peace. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this What about the GFS? That owned every other model on this storm? You're such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM 6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Have a Shirley temple. It’s on me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysoner Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this Gonna need more reasoning to dispel the consistency with the majority of all the other models, meso and global. Not saying it's impossible, it just seems unlikely at this point, and an outlier solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I still have snow on the ground around here. With a blizzard on the doorstep. I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen that happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I still have snow on the ground around here. With a blizzard on the doorstep. I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen that happen. Same here friend. Still have at least 6 inches on the ground and grass with bigger piles next to driveways and unused areas. This is going to be a back-breaking experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this that is what something like dtwxrisk would say i see you two think alike . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I guess this is the OBS thread too? It's been flurrying here for a bit with a stiff SE breeze picking up @ 31°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRDPS better than its cousin RGEM and tended better since 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I guess this is the OBS thread too? It's been flurrying here for a bit with a stiff SE breeze picking up @ 31°. I believe so, should add obs at the title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I could sense the sarcasm from snowman lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dmillz25 said: I could sense the sarcasm from snowman lol i truly believe he is not sarcastic but actually believes what he says which is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Somebody should start an obs thread for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: i truly believe he is not sarcastic but actually believes what he says which is scary. If he isn’t sarcastic about this then yes thats a problem for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow already falling. 31.5F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 43 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Snowman makes an appearance only to put his cards on one of the least snowy models? Not much of a surprise there. Well if you keep going with the warmest winter and the least snowiest solution every time you'll eventually end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Holy shit upton bumped up the blizz warning for westchester 16-24” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 People can have their opinions, we don’t need to attack them for not saying what we want them too. Frankly it’s what I dislike about some of the other boards here. What is going to happen is irrelevant to what anyone on here says or thinks, so allow people the courtesy of their own take. I don’t know why that always ends up threatening to some - IE not hearing what you want to hear leads to mocking, which reads defensive. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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