The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Tatamy]

Regarding the output from the RDPS, it’s similar to the run at 12z.  This is the CMC ensemble run from 12z. If someone can explain the difference between these I would be interested to know.

 

[Prue11]

This will clearly rival feb 2013 in Suffolk. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Can’t believe I’m missing this one. Shame 

I know it sucks. It would eat away at me.  This isn't the last one we'll see though. 

[North and West]

I have to take this with me into the bathroom for a minute… 

A whole minute? Mr. Romantic.


.

[SnoSki14]

Rgem sucks ass

[coastalplainsnowman]

28 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I personally experienced winds of this force in February 1983 on the north shore of Suffolk Cty. and had good equipment to measure it.  It has happened before and can happen again.

Thanks - I'm sure and I wouldn't doubt you at all.  I'm just saying that I haven't seen that pan out much, just like the elusive rain that changes back to snow,  and the 'this storm will be going strong for 36 hours' which seems to always fall short.  Maybe I'm really asking for it though making this argument with this particular storm.

[Nibor]

[SACRUS]

 

 

2/22 00z WRF

 

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

 

10:1 Snow

[liwxfan]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

This will clearly rival feb 2013 in 

That's what I'm thinking too.. didn't know if that would ever happen again.  If it's going to this is as good a chance as any. 

[hooralph]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm gonna try to be objective from a normie perspective but the amount of damage that would occur from the NAM verifying would be extreme. 

We're talking major coastal flooding, major power outages, a shutdown for days. Something out of this world. 

[nycsnow]

Have to see if other mesos start picking up on the stalling idea… would be epic 

[coastalplainsnowman]

25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I should go to bed I got work at 6 am but I can't pull away... must watch.... models

I can't tell you how many times I've broken away to catch up on emails only to find myself back here scrolling, not remembering ever making the conscious decision to flip back here..

[TriPol]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think I have ever seen a snow map from the ICON displaying that much snow. It’s usually very conservative on every storm 

Maybe the ICON is being conservative.

[Prue11]

3 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

That's what I'm thinking too.. didn't know if that would ever happen again.  If it's going to this is as good a chance as any. 

Agree 100%. I’ve never been more confident in potentially breaking those totals. 28” IMBY during that storm so we shall see. Either way this storm has the possibility of potentially being deadly. Hope the general public stay off the roads. Many of cars were abandoned on nicolls road and the LIE Feb 2013

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Have to see if other mesos start picking up on the stalling idea… would be epic 

Occluding low, kinda checks out.

[nycwinter]

https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social

[liwxfan]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Agree 100%. I’ve never been more confident in potentially breaking those totals. 28” IMBY during that storm so we shall see. Either way this storm has the possibility of potentially being deadly. Hope the general public stay off the roads. Many of cars were abandoned on nicolls road and the LIE Feb 2013

Where in suffolk are you? I'm up in sound beach. Was in mount sinai in 2013.. got about 32 inches.  Constant lightning coming off the harbor in that death band.  

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social

That guy is trash person

[nycwinter]

Just now, Mail Man said:

That guy is trash person

he was in youtube chat tonight arguing his point. about the models..

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social

He said no chance earlier this week and that monkeys will fly if the gfs is right.

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He said no chance earlier this week and that monkeys will fly if the gfs is right.

he claiming the gfs and nam with 30 inches will not be correct and he is probably right but he makes excuses for how bad the euro was with this storm from the onset 

[wthrmn654]

Here's a little behind the scenes of what is going through a nws head tonight...

Forecasting potential extreme events ("black swan" events as some call them) is always a psychological as well as scientific challenge. Yesterday I hemmed and hawed about mentioning blizzard conditions for Long Island for the upcoming storm and went with it in the end, the signal was too much to ignore. Now I'm confronted by the latest shorter term models, which refuse to back down from extreme snowfall amounts from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. How much do I accept those amounts?? I think those models are seeing what the European model still isn't, and that's the potential for heavy thundersnow with rates of 2-4 inches per hour for several hours, preceded and followed by additional snow at lesser rates. The European never gets hourly snowfall rates above an inch per hour, and with an intense storm like this that makes no sense. But if I bought the extreme numbers verbatim I'd have to forecast at least 2 feet of snow for nearly the entire NYC Tri-State area, Long Island, and all of NJ, and locally as much as 30-40 inches for parts of the Jersey shore up into western and central Long Island. Nope that's too extreme. I can be conservative and say as much as 20-25 inches for the former and 25-30 inches for the latter, there is still time to zero in on the right amounts. If the extreme numbers don't back down with the daytime Sunday model guidance and I can still provide a rationale for why they might happen, then I may have to keep trending toward them. For now time to get some sleep

[DreamBig]

4 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

That guy is trash person

100%. Clicked because I didn't know. Most models consistently showing some sort of bullseye over central jersey coast, but his 'last call' doesn't have it. And last call my foot...

[mikeysed]

Dynamic ratio wxnerds spitting out a 2.5 hour period of 7 to 8 inch an hour snow. 

 

Has the northeast in general ever seen 8 inch an hour snow?

[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rgem sucks ass

I don't even pay attention to the RGEM in advance of a big snowstorm, it always runs low

[Santa Claus]

remember to get on facebook and post the NAM or you are not a true weenie

[NJwx85]

29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Can’t believe I’m missing this one. Shame 

I feel your pain. I was in Daytona for PD2.

[shadowsintherain]

remember to get on facebook and post the NAM or you are not a true weenie

Bahaha


.

[TriPol]

GFS is late.

[Northshorekid]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

he was in youtube chat tonight arguing his point. about the models..

He was indeed trolling their show tonight. You could tell Joe C was annoyed with DT. Can't understand how DT could rub people the wrong way...

On a more important note, Joe and Joe had on Bill Goodman from the NWS Upton office. When Cioffi had his final call board up of 15-20 along Central/Eastern NJ and Long Island,  Bill said that was too low in his mind, his thinking was 18-24.