SACRUS Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, bluewave said: I believe this would be a first for the GFS being the most tucked in near the coast among the other globals and being correct. The NAM has done it numerous times. But the only other big GFS coup was being more east in January 2015. yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw. But not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The GFS just out-NAM'd the NAM! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/20 18z Summary Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24 SFRE F: 1.0 NAM: 2.3 RGEM: 0.6 ICON: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.5 GFS: 2.2 Updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The tree damage is going to be profound The wind isn't going to help things. Even the GFS has sustained winds of 20-30kts well inland Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 8 minutes ago, mob1 said: Not as wet as you think (verbatim). Said this earlier. Going to be better than 10:1 ratios at times during this storm. Assuming things progress as currently indicated. You can get some high ratio snows in these deformation bands. Has much more to do with temps in the column and not just surface temperatures which at the peak of the storm should be in the mid to upper 20's. Again, assuming everything stays on track as indicated. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Potentially historic: GFS NAM To a little lesser extent GFS AI but still a biggie. Heavy: RGEM Moderate to heavy: ICON. EURO will be interesting to see where it falls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Could see the GFS was going for the full phase since 06z this morning. The vibes are good in here; we deserve this. Even warlock is slowly coming on board…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw. But not here. Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well perfect rack for nyc to be in heavy snowbanding with no dry slot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Lets see if the GEFS is even more tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago If only it started tomorrow afternoon. Another harrowing day of model runs before the whole picture comes together 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt. Ai EPS not looking good 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well Normally I'd like to see the 850 low a little further west to nail interior NJ. The fact this is bombing as it goes by will help offset that somewhat eastward displacement. 850 low as shown is text book material for NJ coast, up across NE NJ, NYC and LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Lets see if the GEFS is even more tucked. It is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, qg_omega said: Ai EPS not looking good Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt. Barely Still has alot of snow. Gefs is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: Lol Is he serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 12 minutes ago, wxman said: And what's to say it's done trending. Each runs been adding like six inches area wide! Yes....the GFS tends to suppress these types of setups a bit...so it may even improve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, EastonSN+ said: Is he serious? it has a slightly slower phase and capture like bluewave says but who cares 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Ukie improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Is the 18z AI EURO even out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Gefs slightly west 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, Wxbear25 said: Is the 18z AI EURO even out yet? 615 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago GEFS look really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: 615 That’s what I thought, I saw reference to it not being good and did a double take, thanks Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: Easy now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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