Wednesday Feb 18 Mixed event. NoP refresher?

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could you see all rain or several inches of snow ?

I don’t think you’ll have either one. But it’s possible snow could be an inch or less. We’ll see what wobbles happen at 00z

[ineedsnow]

we 18z Euro 

[ineedsnow]

warning snows here

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think you’ll have either one. But it’s possible snow could be an inch or less. We’ll see what wobbles happen at 00z

How 'bout lightning ?

[ineedsnow]

really upped qpf

 

[dendrite]

You can walk across the street and cross that stripe of .75

[dendrite]

I see why you posted qpf. Pivotal starts as rain or slop.

[dendrite]

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I see why you posted qpf. Pivotal starts as rain or slop.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Those are terrible maps

[Damage In Tolland]

00z had no snow south of 90 

[CoastalWx]

Stormvista has the weenie-ish algorithms. Tossed. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, take the under on 10:1

[radarman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

00z had no snow south of 90 

Yeah the euro has been probably the worst model for this one.  Still playing catchup.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those are terrible maps

ya that's why I posted qpf.. I'll take the 5 pivotal has though

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You’ll probably waste a little qpf to start…0.05-0.10” before it really starts stacking? There will be a little wetbulbing down initially before you reach a near isothermal 0C

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

You’ll probably waste a little qpf to start…0.05-0.10” before it really starts stacking? There will be a little wetbulbing down initially before you reach a near isothermal 0C

thinking 3 to 5 here a little more if we get lucky

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

thinking 3 to 5 here a little more if we get lucky

This should be the first sloppy stuff in a long time here. 

[WxWatcher007]

Ugh that sucks here

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This should be the first sloppy stuff in a long time here. 

Low level cold advects in after 00z…should be a nice ice up as temps drop into the 20s with snow.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This should be the first sloppy stuff in a long time here. 

yup get some meat in the pack

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, radarman said:

Yeah the euro has been probably the worst model for this one.  Still playing catchup.

You’re definitely in a good spot.. but it’s nice to see it continue colder . I don’t think 3-6 you to SNH and 2-4 HFD north is a bad idea at this point 

[ORH_wxman]

I’m thinking 2-4” here…maybe 1-3”. Well see how quickly things cool. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Divide by 3 on those maps. I'd take an inch, this is all a bonus if we can score either Saturday or Monday 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Divide by 3 on those maps. I'd take an inch, this is all a bonus if we can score either Saturday or Monday 

Best lift looks below DGZ on most guidance too so I don’t love it. But some of these runs have very intense rates for 2-3 hours. So if someone gets a surprise 4-6”, it will be because they prob ended up in a narrow area of very strong lift/rates. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best lift looks below DGZ on most guidance too so I don’t love it. But some of these runs have very intense rates for 2-3 hours. So if someone gets a surprise 4-6”, it will be because they prob ended up in a narrow area of very strong lift/rates. 

Where’s the ice zone likely to be ?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the ice zone likely to be ?

Almost nowhere. Maybe a very thin zone of it for about 3-4 hours once the low level cold starts advecting in during the second half of the event…so any glaze should be pretty minimal. Obviously untreated sidewalks and roads can get nasty with just a little, but overall ice will be very minimal imho. 

[JACKASS]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the ice zone likely to be ?

Check your freezer.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

thinking 3 to 5 here a little more if we get lucky

You and Hubdave look good at this time.

[Kitz Craver]

Not much ice or snow to speak of for this one in CT albeit the extreme northern areas along the MA border