Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Starving for attention are we?

He succeeded. It’s the most “popular” post lol

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I see that this hobby isn’t for you

If its meteorologically possible, we track it. Fuck an MJO. It isnt the master of the atmosphere.

[CAPE]

This is very acceptable for a mean at this range. GEFS and CMC ens are decent too. Pretty strong signal.

[bncho]

Take this ensemble as a MAJOR grain of salt, but FWIW

[NorthArlington101]

Anyone still like the WeatherNext 

[Heisy]

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

Except aren’t we in 2-3 until maybe right when the storm hits?

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is very acceptable for a mean at this range. GEFS and CMC ens are decent too. Pretty strong signal.

We have better consensus across the ensembles, and if they hold, the ops will follow in the next couple days. Then we have something legit to track!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone still like the WeatherNext 

That purple pants tent is right over @stormtracker house. 

[pazzo83]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If its meteorologically possible, we track it. Fuck an MJO. It isnt the master of the atmosphere.

bro don't tempt it

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone still like the WeatherNext 

I thought this model was generally doing pretty well, rarely see it posted. 

[Paleocene]

start the thread




jk

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, bncho said:

Take this ensemble as a MAJOR grain of salt, but FWIW

That would be the perfect snowstorm. This week can then be used to continue melting whatever foulness is left as well as attempting to shed a couple lbs (I’ve gained an easy 10 lbs this winter lol).

[winter_warlock]

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone still like the WeatherNext 

Wow... Just curious  How accurate is the "weather next"?? 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow... Just curious  How accurate is the "weather next"?? 

Jury’s still out. Keep in mind that it is a 64 member ensemble

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone still like the WeatherNext 

Looks a lot like the Ukie, which is fine by me.

[Kmlwx]

My big win is that I haven't had to create the 2026 Severe Weather Discussion thread yet. We've done it as early as December for the following year before  - but generally seems to average out to mid-February lately (always a pesky dynamic system threatening to give us a pencil thin and low topped squall line). So if nothing else - seems we are still "wintry enough" to not need my annual installment. Whew. 

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow... Just curious  How accurate is the "weather next"?? 

We were clued into it by a soothsayer I believe from the NE forum.  It was locked in pretty early to the snowy solution to the storm about two weeks ago that we were tracking.  Remember that storm?  Me neither. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow... Just curious  How accurate is the "weather next"?? 

Gemini has frigid cold and dry Feb 23-24 with a major winter storm Wed February 25.

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Jury’s still out. Keep in mind that it is a 64 member ensemble

Oh ok thanks  bro.. . so ud think the more members in the ensemble, the more accurate it would be.. IMO

[WEATHER53]

Analog time frame day a Go and notice how the cold air is coming down from NY State and PA and not rolling off Maine nor plunging down thru ND/SD and rolling eastward where timing of cold air can be a problem 

[winter_warlock]

 

16 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We were clued into it by a soothsayer I believe from the NE forum.  It was locked in pretty early to the snowy solution to the storm about two weeks ago that we were tracking.  Remember that storm?  Me neither. 

Musta been that storm that stayed way south east. 

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks a lot like the Ukie, which is fine by me.

Well at least it has the Ukie  backing it.. better then no model support at all

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 

Musta been that storm that stayed way south east. 

Maybe it was the SE forum.  I think @bncho knew a guy who knew a guy who called for it giving us epic snows.  

[winter_warlock]

Just now, IronTy said:

Maybe it was the SE forum.  I think @bncho knew a guy who knew a guy who called for it giving us epic snows.  

Well that storm was way wide right if I recall. Was good for the  outerbanks, NC

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Maybe it was the SE forum.  I think @bncho knew a guy who knew a guy who called for it giving us epic snows.  

I got the maps from a met in SouthernWX, but since nothing winter related is going on in the south, he's out of comission for now!

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on

Winds DC 15-20 gusting to 35 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said:

One of those times I'd rather not see snow this weekend. Oldest is performing in the Maryland All State Chorus on Sunday. 

Congrats on that. I made All State band my senior year in HS and it’s real tough competition 

[TSSN+]

Not shocking icon h5 is no where near what it was at 12z not even close. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

MJO phase 4-5 isn’t going to get you snow in mid Atlantic. But glad to see everyone jumping for joy on a Monday lol.

MJO is but one possible component among many and a new signal gets introduced every year.  Plus the effects have changed. Nino and Nina used to be very consistent predictors for 50 years but less so now.  AO/NAO still very vital but the rest are largely research in progress 

[stormtracker]

5 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

stalled and tucked. sign me up please

Of course.  Gotta go to Houston (on purpose) this weekend. If that happened, I’d be sick.   If it’s on the map tomm, I’ll start faking the beginning of an illness.