Presidents' day Snow potential

[Brian5671]

RGEM leading the way it never bit.

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

RGEM leading the way it never bit.

No its not 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

No its not 

it's never had anything and other models are now backing off...

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

it's never had anything and other models are now backing off...

This was always a minor event if anything. Take the 1-3" an run. It came out of nowhere 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This was always a minor event if anything. Take the 1-3" an run. It came out of nowhere 

yep-especially with end of week looking wetter vs white now...

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's never had anything and other models are now backing off...

But at least the 18z RGEM run was an improvement. It now gives us close to an inch after showing nothing for so long. RGEM jumping aboard for a light snow event gives more confidence that we're at least in for 1 to 2 inches. HRRR is about the only model showing nothing now. Hopefully that will jump aboard tonight. 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Interesting

Notice that the social media influencer posted a single water vapor map. That makes it difficult for readers to verify the accuracy of the claims being made. There is no reference point for comparison. Therefore, no structural validation is possible. But that's life on social media today where anyone can slap "wx" into their handle and then forecast. 

In fact, based on the 6z, 12z, and 18z cycles, the opposite has been true through the course of much of today. That's why the models have pulled back somewhat on the northern extent of the QPF and track of the relatively weak system. It will likely remain weak, as the environment is not conducive to phasing, as has been a recurrent theme over several days of 500 mb vorticity maps. The NAM, Icon, and GFS have all pulled back, with the NAM and Icon continuing their evolution through the 18z cycle. The 18z GFS has yet to initialize. With the 12z GFS having been above the consensus and the ongoing evolution of the synoptic environment, I wouldn't be surprised if its forecast is trimmed at 18z, though that's not guaranteed. 

Overall, taking into consideration the guidance, inter-cycle shifts in the guidance, and EPS individual members, a 1"-2" snowfall still seems reasonable for the NYC area and immediate suburbs. A strip of somewhat higher amounts could cut across central NJ and parts of Long Island. Overnight into tomorrow, I suspect that the guidance will begin to consolidate at a consensus. 

[Brian5671]

RGEM a coating to an inch

[Brian5671]

18z GFS

[jm1220]

Minor stat padder. Better than nothing. 

[Snowguy66]

Amateur posting in the New York City forum

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z GFS

Nice refresher 

[RU848789]

Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations.  This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".  

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM leading the way it never bit.

The 18Z RGEM just showed the most snow it has showed this week.  Much more likely that it's catching up to this being a minor event than "leading the way" in any way.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The actual progression in real time is looking much better for us down stream then what the models are showing rn. Also alot of moisture pretty far north on radar. The suppression doesn't look as bad either since its moving out the way.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations.  This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".  

Thats because actual real time atmospheric conditions are not being included in to these models. Everything is playing catchup rn. We snow!!