GaWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Weekly relative SSTa update: Nino 3.4 slight rise to +0.5 (Nino threshhold): Cal wk midpt…...1+2……...3….…..3.4……..…4 01APR2026 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 08APR2026 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 29APR2026 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982) 5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1 5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right....2018-2019 was la Nino, as well. It's honestly been over a decade since we've had a true El Nino, and the RONI even lagged in that one. Yeah, that 2018-20 period was a disjointed at best. We didn't really have a definitive ENSO or PDO state during those years (the PDO was near neutral for the greater part of almost 4 years after the mid-2010s el nino dissipated), until we got to 2020-21, which was a solid la nina and -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: +IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east…… Hopefully that helps boost the RONI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully that helps boost the RONI. I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out. Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997…… I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year. You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic. What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27) FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re heading for a net small -NAO for May as a whole. Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. 09-10 showed that we can get a good winter out of a strong modoki el nino. We just need a good blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 09-10 showed that we can get a good winter out of a strong modoki el nino. We just need a good blocking pattern. Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s. Kind of interesting that we are batting 0-22 on Winter NAO months > +1.11 starting after just 1 year after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 can we have a separate thread for winter talk? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 https://x.com/peakaustria/status/2056315272852648378?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO. AO and NAO are usually about 0.85 correlated, but they are running apart this year: AO is -1.0 for 2026 so far, NAO is +4.4. March AO was +2 though. It has basically exactly neutral correlation April to May, and March to May [1948-2020]. There is a slight -EPO correlation actually March +AO to May- May is a little cooler temp wise in the CONUS after +AO March, which we have seen at least in the 1st half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/peakaustria/status/2056315272852648378?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 09-10 showed that we can get a good winter out of a strong modoki el nino. We just need a good blocking pattern. This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, roardog said: So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol They dig and dig to find this stuff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO. I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: can we have a separate thread for winter talk? still coping with the winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Just now, A-L-E-K said: still coping with the winter cancel my area is currently in its hottest developing nino may heat wave on record 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO. Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 41 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: still coping with the winter cancel The key is to just roll with it. Fire up the BBQ on Christmas and make something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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