2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if it’s a colder conus winter but mild imby. It’s all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

 

Your local area has just finished the warmest 11 year stretch of winters into March following the big warmer shift in 2015-2016. Since the winters have still averaged below freezing, it still feels cold. But just not as cold as it had been in the past.

So every local area has been affected to varying degrees by this warmer shift. This is why global and national temperatures are important since it shapes which will be felt locally. 

Places closer to the East Coast that have seen their averages climb to the mid to upper 30s over this period have definitely have felt warmer. It’s why this past winter felt so cold.

This winter would have been closer to average in the old days. But relative to the post post 2014-2015 period it felt much colder even though many areas saw no record cold this past winter. It was great to see a return of the benchmark snowstorm tracks which had been absent for the past 3 seasons. 

The Detroit average 11 winter temperature through 2026 is 30.3°. The previous warmest 11 year stretch had been 28.9° ending in 1957. The earlier arrival of spring over this period resulted a 32.6° December through March average vs the previous highest 31.0° max in 2007.

The biggest benefit of these warmer run of winters has been in the lake effect snow favored areas like Marquette. Warmer falls into winters boosted the Great Lakes temperatures and slowed the arrival of ice. So a great set up if you are a big lake effect snow fan.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A little dip the past 2 days

+1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

 

If you were following the seasonal forecasts last November, then you would have seen the ones keying in on the early stratospheric warming and easterly QBO influence warming were on the right track.

But it took about 3 months to finally deliver the big KU event. Would have been nice if we didn’t have to wait 11 years for a both cold and snowy winter in what has become a sea of warm. 
 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A little dip the past 2 days

+1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent

Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

As Ben is pointing out, we could be dealing with some convection further west than the typical super Nino configuration due to warm waters extending further west. Makes sense to me unless we can get some actual cool SSTAs in the west pac. Same theme we’ve been dealing with where it may cause split forcing or alter the standing wave forcing to some degree. 

 

[snowman19]

The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak:

And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak:
 

 

And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:

 

 

 

 

 

Yup, but this exact issue that Ben points out is what many of us believe contributed to the super torch of December 2015, where you had the Nino-like pac jet extension, but then systems cut in a Nina - like SE ridge. Will be interesting to see if Aigle is right, and thus the forcing is so overwhelmingly strong that we see a more broad pacific jet-southern stream connection similar to 1997 instead of 2015. 

[LakePaste25]

FWIW, whether it’s more like 1997-98 or 2015-16 doesn’t really change the odds of a big NE snowstorm or two between breaks of the pacific jet IMO. Just really getting into semantics here of what more closely defines a super Nino pattern in the western hemisphere. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Your local area has just finished the warmest 11 year stretch of winters into March following the big warmer shift in 2015-2016. Since the winters have still averaged below freezing, it still feels cold. But just not as cold as it had been in the past.

So every local area has been affected to varying degrees by this warmer shift. This is why global and national temperatures are important since it shapes which will be felt locally. 

Places closer to the East Coast that have seen their averages climb to the mid to upper 30s over this period have definitely have felt warmer. It’s why this past winter felt so cold.

This winter would have been closer to average in the old days. But relative to the post post 2014-2015 period it felt much colder even though many areas saw no record cold this past winter. It was great to see a return of the benchmark snowstorm tracks which had been absent for the past 3 seasons. 

The Detroit average 11 winter temperature through 2026 is 30.3°. The previous warmest 11 year stretch had been 28.9° ending in 1957. The earlier arrival of spring over this period resulted a 32.6° December through March average vs the previous highest 31.0° max in 2007.

The biggest benefit of these warmer run of winters has been in the lake effect snow favored areas like Marquette. Warmer falls into winters boosted the Great Lakes temperatures and slowed the arrival of ice. So a great set up if you are a big lake effect snow fan.

 

I was only referring to the comment about 2013-14...I said it in spring 2014 and ill say it to the end...there will never be another 2013-14. Goes far beyond just being the snowiest winter on record. A retired local climatologist did a writeup at the time how it was the most severe winter on record and all the things that made it that. Not repeating that winter has nothing to do with warmer globe or anything like that. It was a winter that defied local climo.

As for 2015-16 thru 2024-25, ive discussed it several times as well as how it differed from the warmth of the east. Here it was a product of 5 very mild winters (15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24) and the rest around avg (+/- a minimal amt) whereas the east was consistent mild each year.

I will say though that 2025-26 was solidly colder than avg. Its colder than the longterm avg and its colder than the coldest 30-year normal in the entire period of record. The departure would be even more impressive if not for a sharp rebound the 2nd half of Feb. 

Lastly, what has intrigued me more than anything is how the past several decades, milder winters have less correlation to low snowfall (not just les but synoptic too) than they used to. Its more of a crapshoot now.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

 Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8:

 But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

[winter_warlock]

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

[GaWx]

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year.

1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8:
 But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... 

Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super

57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May

65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May

72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May

82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May

91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog

97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May

15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far

This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

 Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, pre-1950 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and especially 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

Here’s the RONI plumes that Ben tweeted that @snowman19just posted:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/2053479903761498266/photo/1

 -4 of these 10 would be a new record RONI (goes back to 1950): CMCC, BoM, JMA, NCEP (CFSv2 keeps rising and is now +2.7 for seasonal peak as Prof. Eliot just tweeted). 

-Euro is close to a 1982-3 redux

-OTOH, the UKMET, which has performed as one of the better models over the years, doesn’t even reach +2.0 for RONI monthly and peaks at only +2.3 for ONI monthly. So, the UKMET still isn’t even close to the record +2.7 monthly/+2.5 seasonal record RONI peaks of 1982-3 even though it appears to be a couple of tenths warmer than its prior run.

-So, whereas the majority of the better models suggest at least a 1982-3 redux is a good possibility, the UKMET is still ~0.7 cooler than 1982-3 on a RONI basis even with this slightly warmer run. That along with certain May model runs (like Euro longterm and BoM more recently) still being subject to notable warm bias are enough to still keep me wary of the admittedly rising possibility that 2026-7 will at least get close to 1982-3. The chance of a 1982-3 redux or even warmer is rising but is still very far from a slam dunk. OTOH, getting a RONI super-strong peak is now ~60% chance in my mind. I’d have it higher than 60% if the UKMET weren’t still not reaching super even for a single month.

[jaxjagman]

We seem to headed towards a WQBO into summer,while the AAM and even SOI  is still not coupled quite well,they both look NINA and not NINO ATM

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still seems kinda strange why you dont see the AAM and SOI synced up.Im not saying this wont be a strong NINO,even CPC  today shows some pockets today of +8 down  into the subsurface.The next WWB seems to be  caused by a ERW into the eastern PAC,whicH we havent seen these strong WWB so far

[jaxjagman]

These westerlies the models have been showing has been countered with strong easterlies,so they have failed to get much past the IDL,maybe its gonna be different this time,probably could be the strongest ERW east of the IDL yet in this event

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not really seeing much of a N. Pacific low or negative anomaly in the NPH area (-NOI) thus far.