2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall.

This was one of our most -WPO winters in years. Maybe it’s related to the warm pool east of Japan extending all the way across to California. When the warm pool was there and we had a cold pool near California it lead to the 22-23 winter and the strong +WPO. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of our most -WPO winters in years. Maybe it’s related to the warm pool east of Japan extending all the way across to California. When the warm pool was there and we had a cold pool near California it lead to the 22-23 winter and the strong +WPO. 
 

 

Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.

It’s interesting that the CFS is also showing a -WPO at least in December. 
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works.

The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience).

Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs? 

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

This is where I’m at as well. Until I see a more supportive evidence in the SSTA/MJO/WWB evolution that supports a CANSIPS-like outcome, I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Modelology vs. Meteorology. 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works.

The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience).

Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.

 Thanks.
1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected.

 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE.

3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

[LakePaste25]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.

The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong. 

[snowman19]

[MarcmmKU]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah shutout may not be the best choice of words, I took it literally lol.

2015-16 was a better snow season here than 1997-98 or 2023-24. 

I do think uber strong ninos tend to me more negative for us than for you. Midwest is pretty resistant to terrible snow years. Not the case on the coast, even interior NE.

[LakePaste25]

Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks.
1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected.

 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE.

3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

Its my understanding that the pre-1950 ENSO years are more subject to debate re: strength, but still cool to see which years were which. 2002-03 was another cold moderate Nino. 2009-10 was funky but cold in spots. And several others hovered near climo temp-wise.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I do think uber strong ninos tend to me more negative for us than for you. Midwest is pretty resistant to terrible snow years. Not the case on the coast, even interior NE.

Strong Ninos are still generally the worst-case scenario for winter here, but again, we still get winter. Ironically, the strong Nino you guys would pick out of the big guns would probably be 1982-83, and that was the worst one here. Each still has different patterns, some big storms, and often decent spells of winter....its just the mean over the whole season is subpar relative to climate. 

The east is more feast/famine. The Great Lakes always save us to an extent. Even in the worst case scenarios we get plenty of mood flake days to feel like winter.

Detroit and Boston average near identical seasonal snowfall. In the past 50 years....both places averaged 44". Yet, look at the top and bottom 5 in those 50 years at each location.

Detroit			  Boston
20.0” – 1982-83	    9.3” – 2011-12	
23.4” – 1997-98	    9.8” – 2023-24
23.5” – 2023-24	   12.4” – 2022-23
23.7” – 1999-00	   12.7” – 1979-80
24.1” – 2003-04	   14.9” – 1994-95

94.9” – 2013-14   110.6” – 2014-15
74.0” – 1981-82   107.6” – 1995-96
71.7” – 2007-08	   96.3” – 1993-94
69.1” – 2010-11	   86.6” – 2004-05
65.7” – 2008-09	   85.1” – 1977-78

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its my understanding that the pre-1950 ENSO years are more subject to debate re: strength, but still cool to see which years were which. 2002-03 was another cold moderate Nino. 2009-10 was funky but cold in spots. And several others hovered near climo temp-wise.

 2002-3 and especially 2009-10 were cold in the SE.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting that the CFS is also showing a -WPO at least in December. 

That's a little more of a -EPO than WPO. Same with CANSIPS

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again, since the extreme March 2026 +NAO is leading the May pattern very well, here it is rolled forward to the following Winter:

1B — Postimages

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong. 

I dont really follow on Twitter too much. I mostly follow on here (this early on at least) and obviously several on here DO have an inherent warm bias. But once we get closer to Fall and I follow more closely, one of the first things I look for is the input from those who dont have a bias either way.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Again, since the extreme March 2026 +NAO is leading the May pattern very well, here it is rolled forward to the following Winter:

1B — Postimages

Do you have a list of years?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Do you have a list of years?

It's the whole NAO dataset. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

March 2020 being +1.01 = x+1.01 weight

March 2023 being -1.11 = x-1.11 weight

March 2025 being +0.20 = x0.20 weight

It's like that for the whole thing 1948-2020. That's why I like the tool. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not a huge lag between ONI and RONI at the moment (roughly 0.3C):

 

That is what we want to see to avoid the dreaded cool-ENSO-like se ridge during the coming season IMHO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May usually has a pretty strong pattern correlation in El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

A bit of snow is falling tonight. This is the 5th year since 2016 to see May snow. Chuck called a cool May 2 months ago.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.

 

 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond

The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.

 

 

 

 

My guess is that the ultimate peak we see in the fall will probably be influenced by how much WWB follow up we get. The recent models back off a bit for early May. They now forecast the next larger one by mid to late May. Could make the difference between a peak in the 2.0 to 2.4 range vs 2.5+. 
 

New run

Old run

 

[MarcmmKU]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Strong Ninos are still generally the worst-case scenario for winter here, but again, we still get winter. Ironically, the strong Nino you guys would pick out of the big guns would probably be 1982-83, and that was the worst one here. Each still has different patterns, some big storms, and often decent spells of winter....its just the mean over the whole season is subpar relative to climate. 

The east is more feast/famine. The Great Lakes always save us to an extent. Even in the worst case scenarios we get plenty of mood flake days to feel like winter.

Detroit and Boston average near identical seasonal snowfall. In the past 50 years....both places averaged 44". Yet, look at the top and bottom 5 in those 50 years at each location.

Detroit			  Boston
20.0” – 1982-83	    9.3” – 2011-12	
23.4” – 1997-98	    9.8” – 2023-24
23.5” – 2023-24	   12.4” – 2022-23
23.7” – 1999-00	   12.7” – 1979-80
24.1” – 2003-04	   14.9” – 1994-95

94.9” – 2013-14   110.6” – 2014-15
74.0” – 1981-82   107.6” – 1995-96
71.7” – 2007-08	   96.3” – 1993-94
69.1” – 2010-11	   86.6” – 2004-05
65.7” – 2008-09	   85.1” – 1977-78

 

Our variance is certainly very high.... Always makes the winter forecast a nail biter if you like snow lol

[roardog]

On 4/27/2026 at 8:32 AM, snowman19 said:

Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
 

 The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.