2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We can see why the recently initialized models like the CFS are going higher. This is the first time since 1997 with an OHC reading reaching over 2.0° in April.
Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.
My guess is that the ECMWF release on May 5th will increase its forecast over the April 5th levels once this record kelvin wave and OHC is initialized.
So it appears we are on track for our first two El Nino events with a peak over +2.0 only separated by 3 years. We may not know what the ceiling is on this one until we get into late May or June. But it looks higher than 2023-2024 due to how strong this is becoming early on.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
 

Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

15-16 actually peaked at 1.97 in August:

2015    8     0.99      1.43       1.97
2015    9     1.04      1.48       1.80
2015   10     1.04      1.51       1.91

[GaWx]

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

[GaWx]

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:

Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4

08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[GaWx]

 The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85.
 
 On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7:

BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept:

 

Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):

[PhiEaglesfan712]

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

I have the most recent CFS RONI mean peak at near the 1982-3 record of +2.5 rather than +2.7:

It is the monthly of Nov that peaks near +2.7, which is near the 1982-3 monthly peak of +2.69 (Jan peak):

 

 So, the most recent CFS has warmed to a 1982-3 redux in strength.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23. 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

I like to rely more on the ECMWF Nino plumes model than the CFS but we only get one update a month. My guess is that it will show another increase in ONI with the May 5th release as it initializes the current near record OHC for so early in the season. 

It may be that the Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from the last very strong event in 2023-2024 could have something to do with the El Niño coming on so strong with only a 3 year gap between events.

Notice that 2025 was the first full year following an El Niño so strong that stayed warm off of South America. Go back to the previous higher end events since the early 1970s and you will see they all significantly cooled compared to what happened in 2025. Also note how much warmer the entire North Pacific remained.

 

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/21/2026 at 11:21 AM, A-L-E-K said:

lots of denial itt

 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Get ready 2 not torch in May per latest EW. No denying that!

Next 4 weeks:

 

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east

It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure

It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30-day SOI is below -10 for the first time since Feb 2024. It will need to average -10 for the next 2 days to hold that value for Apr - which is indicative of a healthy developing El Nino. Big switch from anomaly in March, where it was +7 and developing Nino's (>1.2 RONI peak) since 1950 had never been above +2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Get ready 2 not torch in May per latest EW. No denying that!

Next 4 weeks:

I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature

IBKR ForecastTrader

May is currently going for 62F. Over or under?

+NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern

When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of pattern

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure

It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there. 

The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)? 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)? 

2.56 in October 1997

[bluewave]

Nino 3.4 responding to the kelvin wave as it’s now the 3rd warmest for the date since the early 80s.

 

[snowman19]

This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time

[roardog]

I still can’t believe we won’t flip to +PDO this year. It has to happen with this Nino. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, roardog said:

I still can’t believe we won’t flip to +PDO this year. It has to happen with this Nino. 

It will be interesting to see how things play out. But the long range models continue the warm pool east of Japan. We may have to wait until we get closer to the peak of this event to know for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how things play out. But the long range models continue the warm pool east of Japan. We may have to wait until we get closer to the peak of this event to know for sure. 

I always joke about this, but that emboldened line is the kiss of death from you. I read that, and instantly knew that the next line would be something casting doubt on the notion of a +PDO accompanying the El Nino. Haha

I can't imagine this being another 2023 in terms of the PDO. I think if it remains negative, it will be marginal. Just talking about the actual DM mean index reading....not trying to imply that the winter can't still be awful for the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS looks a bit more neutralish to me, since the warmth displaced northward slightly...probably in part why the model is colder in the east next winter.

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CANSIPS looks a bit more neutralish to me, since the warmth displaced northward slightly...probably in part why the model is colder in the east next winter.

What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016? 

[TheClimateChanger]

19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature

IBKR ForecastTrader

May is currently going for 62F. Over or under?

+NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern

When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of pattern

Lol, what's up with these June contract temperatures? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always joke about this, but that emboldened line is the kiss of death from you. I read that, and instantly knew that the next line would be something casting doubt on the notion of a +PDO accompanying the El Nino. Haha

I can't imagine this being another 2023 in terms of the PDO. I think if it remains negative, it will be marginal. Just talking about the actual DM mean index reading....not trying to imply that the winter can't still be awful for the east.

The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lol, what's up with these June contract temperatures? 

It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016? 

Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28?  5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%