2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Oaul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

Yep good point we are warmer today. And AGW is increasing the frequency of super El Ninos

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You guys have has a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think that

all this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which  seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change

I dont really keep track of severe (other than my own daily weather obs), but what I do know is we've had a lot of pretty dull severe seasons, so we were overdue. 

[snowman19]

Yet another WWB is loading up for early May….

[GaWx]

 It is no surprise to those of us following and posting the dailies that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2:
 

08APR2026         1.0       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6

 How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April? 

- 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start

- 1997: +0.3

- 1982: +0.3

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[PhiEaglesfan712]

How 2026 compares to the strong (but not super) pre-nino composite

1986

 09APR1986        -0.8       -0.2        0.0       -0.4
 16APR1986        -0.8        0.2        0.1       -0.4

1991

 10APR1991        -0.9       -0.3        0.3        0.6
 17APR1991        -0.5        0.3        0.7        0.7

2009

 08APR2009         0.0        0.0       -0.1       -0.2
 15APR2009         0.1        0.1        0.0       -0.3

2023

12APR2023         2.3        0.0       -0.3       -0.3
19APR2023         1.9        0.2       -0.2       -0.3

Matches best with 2023 for Nino 1+2, 1986 for Nino 3, and 1991 for Nino 4.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Thanks, snowman.
 Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3:

 This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. 

This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate. 

[snowman19]

 

^”See the magenta in the middle of the map? That’s alert level 4 of 5 for bleaching in the #Galapagos. Common in El Niño (or in this case developing) where cool water upwelling slows/ stops and surface waters significantly warm. The sea surface temp anomaly is +3-4°C (~6°F). That’s why life suffers there every El Niño, esp. east based episodes Thanks @NOAACoral”

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cooler May?

NAO was 2nd highest monthly all time in March 2026. 12 weeks x 75 years = 900 analogs. The following May in totality of analogs is surprisingly cold:

CPC has it at least starting out this way

May before a later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino is pretty Neutral historically, except in the PNW

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. 

This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate. 

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. 

Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young. 

[LakePaste25]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

As per that research: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year. 

[snowman19]

Here comes the next WWB and downwelling KW for May. It is also likely to spawn more big TC’s with the associated WWBs behind them…..
 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. 

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. 

Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young. 

I'll be shocked if we get through the early 2030's without a flip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. 

Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway.

[bluewave]

FWIW, the April dynamical mean came in at 2.06 for the ONI. This is significantly ahead of 2023 and 2015 at the same point. 2023 was at 1.54 and 2.10 verified. April 2015 was at 1.30 and 2.80 verified. So for the two most recent El Niños reaching an ONI of 2.0 or greater, the spring predictability barrier resulted in too weak a forecast. 
 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

April 2026

Average, Dynamical models	0.764	1.120	1.438	1.709	1.763	1.951	2.060	1.856	1.810

 

April 2023

Average, Dynamical models	0.460	0.785	1.098	1.328	1.406	1.481	1.547	1.473	1.386

April 2015

Average, dynamical models	0.8	1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.1

 

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile.