2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. 

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

[mitchnick]

13 hours ago, roardog said:

I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do. 

I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. 

Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.

 

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

December 2023 wasn't in the 30s most days. It rained a lot, but it was a really warm December. It was either the 2nd or 3rd warmest December (along with 2021), both behind 2015.

I think it was December 2022 that was in the 30s most days but hostile for snow, although December 2024 could fit that profile as well.

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

 Related to what you’re saying:

 As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. 
 

 Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?

[A-L-E-K]

lots of denial itt

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do.

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2

[snowman19]

Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino

Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's:

6-14 day CPC forecast

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years. 

[roardog]

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. 

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions. 

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs.  >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

Exactly the type of analogs I was speculating on. 2002 is similar, but obviously weaker. I think the issue will be the NAO...1991-1992 was awful because it was the only strongly positive NAO/weakly -PDO, which we may very well have this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[GaWx]

 This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast:

 

 Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957 is best subsurface map in terms of placement AND intensity of subsurface warm pool. It's also a good polar analog in terms of solar and QBO.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, roardog said:

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. 

Probably related to the big expansion of the +30C warm pool in the Pacific which is several degrees warmer than we would get back in the old days with the strongest El Niños before the oceans warmed so much.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably related to the big expansion of the +30C warm pool in the Pacific which is several degrees warmer than we would get back in the old days with the strongest El Niños before the oceans warmed so much.

 

 

This is why we are seeing less of an Aleutian low/se trough response.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why we are seeing less of an Aleutian low/se trough response.

Yeah, could be related. Same for the El Nino trough in the East which was much weaker in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024.

I also think the much warmer adjacent off equator and subtropical oceans could be warping the response also. Those subtropical seas were so much warmer this winter that the weak La Niña ridge in the Southwest was so much stronger than the 1995-1996 weak La Niña response.

It’s a bit challenging to give a specific value to just how much each individual marine heatwave is contributing. I have also been noticing discussions already taking place about the new RONI index. I went back and reread the paper on RONI and seems like most of the value was with La Ninas where the off equator warmth was masking the La Niña response.

But when it comes to the strongest El Niños they can appear weaker than the past ONI. But as we saw from 2023-2024, the weaker RONI didn’t correspond to a weaker ridge over Canada and the Northern Tier and any less warmth. Plus the global temperature jump was even more impressive than past even stronger ONI higher end El Niños.

But we could make an argument that the weaker RONI and warmer off equator to subtropical SST warmth could have weakened the Aleutian trough and the trough in the East under the big ridge. This could also warp the rainfall response in some way than we normally get with such strong El niños related to the Southern Stream response.

This is why we should probably still use the traditional ONI for the actual El Niño intensity and incorporate the RONI for the finer details like how the Aleutian Low and other troughs are responding.