2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I felt like it did, too, so the monthly numbers are incorrect?

Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies comes out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers.

link to daily WPO:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[GaWx]

Dec daily WPO: every day was negative and yet that table has +0.08. So, that table is looking at something else. The monthly table url has “wp” in it. Is “wp” the same as “WPO”?

2025 12 01 -163.44
2025 12 02 -139.59
2025 12 03 -103.12
2025 12 04 -115.00
2025 12 05  -37.98
2025 12 06  -31.37
2025 12 07  -48.33
2025 12 08  -84.47
2025 12 09 -106.99
2025 12 10 -130.04
2025 12 11 -192.25
2025 12 12 -316.04
2025 12 13 -347.69
2025 12 14 -304.25
2025 12 15 -259.07
2025 12 16 -205.71
2025 12 17 -191.49
2025 12 18 -190.96
2025 12 19 -200.61
2025 12 20 -183.89
2025 12 21 -135.08
2025 12 22 -127.59
2025 12 23 -138.14
2025 12 24 -130.99
2025 12 25 -113.55
2025 12 26 -107.01
2025 12 27  -95.19
2025 12 28  -71.08
2025 12 29  -82.61
2025 12 30 -127.57
2025 12 31 -123.82

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies come out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers.

link to daily WPO:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portrayal all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portray all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.

Is “WP” (monthly table) the same as “WPO” (dailies, which we know were negative most of the winter)? That table has positives in each of D, J, and F! Can’t be the same thing! It has +.08, +.07, and +0.23 lmao.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).

January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2023 had an early late November/early December reversal??

It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times).

You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb

Nov didn't have the warming like 2025

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times).

You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.

This is why it is important to get a solid Wave 2 attack on the SPV like we would typically like to see for that winter potential is you need to have the pacific pattern also in conjunction with the developing -NAO. As I see above the talk about the NAO and the lack there of, at least with consistency, is a huge factor in just continuing with the large scale wave 1 patterns attacking the SPV. The 500mb pattern is important in that regard not necessarily the overall warming/+GPH that takes place in the Strat.

[GaWx]

Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6:
2025 Dec 0.08
 2026 Jan 0.07  Feb 0.23

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data
 

Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, GaWx said:

Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6:
2925 Dec 0.08
 2026 Jan 0.07  Feb 0.23

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data
 

Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge". 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb

That is why it is important for the 500mb to react in the proper manner so things do actually connect. Just because a precursor occurs to create this Strat warming/+GPH pattern but nothing actually sticks at 500mb than you just get warming aloft and nothing connecting. In my mind 23-24 had all the right things going for it but the 500mb atmospheric pattern was flat out wonky given the upper atmospheric pattern taking shape.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

New Cansips doesn’t really have a strong Nino pattern for winter at least not starting in January. It looks more like a late 70s cold weak Nino like pattern. 

Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26. 

January 2024 actually was a decent winter month here. It was shockingly (for a strong nino) the wettest january on record at Detroit. Which jives with what you mentioned about strong ninos being wetter. There was a big cold snap mid month and the Plains actually finished the month colder than avg. It was the warm and very low snow December and February that made it such a bummer.

This is a pic from Jan 2024. Much of the month resembled what winter in MI should. The problem is Dec and Feb didnt.

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

[BlizzardWx]

One thing to keep in mind with the PDO is that depending on how you calculate it, it's not necessarily balanced. By that I mean that the main area east of Japan, depending on how you calculate it, can be both larger in area and have a stronger weighting than the half ring around it. This matters, particularly in a warming climate. As warm conditions everywhere can bias the PDO calculation negative for these reasons. In fact I think this already happens with the NOAA calculation. My page and the WCS seem to handle this a bit better but likely not adequately. 

@bluewavehas talked about how the PDO is becoming less useful with time and this is part of the reason why. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm. 

You are right that it should be that way, but my suspicion is that the NOAA numbers are so low because its imbalanced. But yes, I don't know that, just a theory. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83

March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min)

0-time is very slight correlation

+1year is stronger

+2years is stronger!

^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry there is a gap around the 8th of April TAO never updated for me

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, bncho said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

We had a great blocking pattern for about a few weeks in January, right around the time of the snowstorm.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI looks weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. 

Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past.

Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low and a more neutral WPO that we typically see with such strong El Niños.

We know these long range model forecasts are often full of errors. If they can just get one thing right like the WPO, then I would consider it a valuable contribution. But it’s still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

I guess the one takeaway is that most of the models are now at or above +2.0 for at least ONI.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.

Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI looks weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. 

Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past.

Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low and a more neutral WPO that we typically see with such strong El Niños.

We know these long range model forecasts are often full of errors. If they can just get one thing right like the WPO, then I would consider it a valuable contribution. But it’s still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

I guess the one takeaway is that most of the models are now at or above +2.0 for at least ONI.

 

1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall. While I could see something like that, I do have a hard time envisioning a cold season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season. 

Okay, this is what I focus on...the reversal, which is why 2023 didn't register with me. I know February 2023 had a reversal.....but wasn't under the impression that the 23-24 season did.

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times).

You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO. 

Yea, I mentioned that in my March recap...there is often a bonafide Pacific trough regime about 10 days following PV splits. Showed up in two of my primary analogs:

 

This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming.

 

This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs? 

Very clever ploy in editing in the shout out to me, so as not to exhaust 1/5th of your daily allotment of posts!!

 'Cmon, dude....you know I'm not a JB.