2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond

The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

 

Thanks, Chris

 To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least  ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record.

 This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

[snowman19]

 The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.

Incorrect

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Incorrect

 

 

 

 

Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.

[GaWx]

 We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:

[snowman19]

Wow….

[GaWx]

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:

It seems like it could level off for a brief time,the MJO is forecast to stay into the IO for a brief time but this seems like its from the Rossby Wave train into the IO with a Kelvin Wave moving towards the Peruvian coast,you  can see this as 1.2 is starting to rise now from downwelling Kelvin Wave.Another big WWB seems to be coming past mid month somewhere along the IDL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 temp/precip anomaly maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods. I can use the ERA 5 dataset on PSU:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

But it plots temps using degrees kelvin and precipitation in MM. Does anyone have a site that can generate DJFM temps maps using degrees F and precipitation using inches?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods.

I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm  not sure this is what you are looking for

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm  not sure this is what you are looking for

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme

No, sorry...I see why you thought that because this is the ENSO thread. I apologize for the OT inquiry...I am asking about temp and precipitation anomaly map generation. Looking for a site that allows for daily map generation for temps in degrees F and precipitation in inches.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, sorry...I see why you thought that because this is the ENSO thread. I apologize for the OT inquiry...I am asking about temp and precipitation anomaly map generation. Looking for a site that allows for daily map generation for temps in degrees F and precipitation in inches.

Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself  where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself  where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO

I ask questions like that in this thread because this is where most of the seasonal guys like to congregate, so there is a method to my madness haha...not going OT just to be obnoxious.

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ask questions like that in this thread because this is where most of the seasonal guys like to congregate, so there is a method to my madness haha...not going OT just to be obnoxious.

I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 temp/precip anomaly maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods. I can use the ERA 5 dataset on PSU:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

But it plots temps using degrees kelvin and precipitation in MM. Does anyone have a site that can generate DJFM temps maps using degrees F and precipitation using inches?

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then

Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?

[jaxjagman]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

i did some research a couple days ago how a strong Nino effects our area or region.In general Dec can have some strong tornadoes which surprised me because we dont see this  in NINO into winter,in Jan along the Appalachian Mountains has flooding and a freak IP/SN happens in Feb

 

Edit:Other wise its going to be AN with with temps

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the best I have for monthly composites right now..

https://climatereanalyzer.org

Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5.

So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.

 

You can generate on these two sites using ERA 5 dataset, Chuck....only issues are that the time periods are more restricted...ie I can't do DJFM, and there are no daily options....ie March 10-25, etc...

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern

The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring.

 The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring.

Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US.  Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite. 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US.  Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite. 

Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.

Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry

[jaxjagman]

Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards  a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol

Edit:meant westerly WQBO

[GaWx]

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 
 
 In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next few months

 

 

 

 

This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 

Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 
 
 In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..

Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time

Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020.  77% +SOI during that time

Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris

 To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least  ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record.

 This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

The tropical forcing tends to focus in areas where the absolute SSTs approach +30C regardless of the departures getting smaller due to climate change. This is one of the reasons that the forcing was so much further west in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 than in 1997-1998.

But it’s possible that if the RONI remains lower relative to the ONI again like in 2023-2024, we may not get the stronger Aleutian Low development like in earlier El Niños. Same for the trough that usually sets up over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast which was missing back in 2023-2024. 

Still too early to tell if the troughs will be weaker again like in 2023-2024 allowing more Southeast ridge development than usual. It may be that if the El Niño gets stronger than 2023-2024 in both ONI and RONI, we get more of a traditional stronger Aleutian Low and low in the Southeast.

Plus the warm pool east Japan could influence the jet development leading to weaker troughs also even if the SSTs are outside the 20N to 20S RONI range. 

Then we have the expansion of the subtropical ridges which could also come into play. Remember, we had a weak La Niña in 2025-2026 and the strongest subtropical ridge near the SW U.S. ever from November to March. So these ridges are becoming more dominant than the troughs.