2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

Speaking of down south, you're going to love that last few runs of the Cfs2, especially February. 

[GaWx]

On 5/7/2026 at 1:01 AM, GaWx said:

 Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009.

 Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low:

18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti

 

 But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12).

 I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs.

 This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.

 We did finally get another 1012+ mb today at Darwin though only barely (1012.15) helping to bring today’s SOI down to -9.25, lowest in a week though still not a strong -SOI. However, Darwin SLP is forecasted to fall back very shortly.

 Looking ahead, the GFS not surprisingly (being that no other model had it) took away that tiny sfc low near Tahiti from its 5/12-13 maps and thus there won’t be those very strong -SOIs that an actual low would have generated. However, all of the models have general notably low pressure at Tahiti 5/14-6. That should result in notable -SOIs for those days. But because Darwin SLPs are also then progged to be somewhat BN, these won’t be as low as they could have been.
 

 Although Tahiti SLPs have been El Ninoish (- SLP anomalies) and will continue to be overall, Darwin SLPs still aren’t progged to be notably El Ninoish (+ anomalies). To get that, the N portion of the cold sfc highs coming from the cold regions to the south needs to extend more strongly further N into N Australia to get Darwin SLPs to go AN. They are forecast to rise back up modestly mid to late next week in N Australia on the N end of chilly high pressure, but it remains to be seen if they’ll rise that much at Darwin to result in a notably -SOI period then.

[GaWx]

On 5/9/2026 at 8:01 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

 Today’s weekly release has about as expected (due to the temporary pause in the warming) Nino 3.4 steady vs the prior week at +0.4. Nino 4 also remained steady at +0.5. Nino 3 rose slightly from +0.5 to +0.6. The more volatile (because much smaller) Nino 1+2 bounced back from +0.7 to +1.0:

Midweek date…..1+2……..3…..….3.4..…..4
 

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. 

That one hugged South America

The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west

Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. 

[bluewave]

No surprise that the El Nino is beginning to couple with a westward lean close to the +30C warm pool. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

We may be running back 23-24 as far as the Pacific pattern goes

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^That EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

The westward lean is closer to the +ENSO MJO 7 composite with the ridge from coast to coast. But notice how the troughs are weaker in the coming forecast near the Aleutians and Baja.

Similar to the weak La Niña this past winter when the ridge out West was stronger than the trough in the East.

While it may be too early to draw conclusions about next winter, this would result in a weaker Aleutian Low and possibly a weaker low in the Southeast like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 relative to 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. 
 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We might need a +5c El Nino to get that North Pacific High area - low pressure strong and persistent anomaly like 82-83 and 97-98. Right now I think the North pacific 500mb pattern may match 23-24 going forward more than other Stronger Nino's

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
 

This is the first that the  +30C warm pool near the Dateline made it down to 100m in April with a developing El Nino. Notice how much warmer in all aspects we are than 2023 during the same time.

You have to wonder if this continues leading to a slower cold pool formation than we typically see toward the later stages of the El Nino in the Western Pacific. We probably wouldn’t know until next winter whether it could cause this one to wind down more slowly than usual during the spring.
 

 

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see what the westerlies/WWBs, +IOD and TC’s do over the next few months….how far east do they push that warm pool?
 

There’s no guarantee that any of that stuff happens as modeled. I think it’s increasingly likely we are headed toward another -PDO type El Niño IMO. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2:
 

 

^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”

 

 Here’s the raw (rather than relative) anomaly for the daily OISST in Nino 1+2: ~+1.5C (relative is ~+1.0C)

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 8 driest El Nino's with a RONI peak >+1.1 came out ... 2 El Nino - 3 Neutral - 3 La Nina the year after [27-28] ... the average RONI that next year is -0.15/yr. 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, the ERA 5 dataset doesn't have velocity potential...I hate that. @bluewave Do you know of any resources to plot VP?

[snowman19]

If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C
 

 

^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher.

This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”

 

[GaWx]

Latest CFSv2 ens AAM prog: nothing notable

[GaWx]

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, the ERA 5 dataset doesn't have velocity potential...I hate that. @bluewave Do you know of any resources to plot VP?

JMA has the current velocity potential and an archive with 5 day to 3 month means.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

 

[snowman19]

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

I will be honest, I am looking forward to energy savings. Also, 2 of the last 3 super events had a KU event. Conscious that this is a very small sample size, however I would roll the dice winter with the active sourhern jet.

Perhaps I am just greedy after the tri state area experienced 2 KU events this past winter.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

This tweet is a bit deceptive because whereas 2026 ONI is, indeed, warmer than ‘97 and ‘15, ‘26 RONI is actually slightly cooler than both at the moment. Stay tuned to see what lies ahead!

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

JMA has the current velocity potential and an archive with 5 day to 3 month means.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

 

Thank you.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thank you.

Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice 3 day run of -SOI

14 May 2026	1009.81	1010.30	-15.45	-5.70	-0.07
13 May 2026	1010.40	1010.50	-12.47	-5.50	0.32
12 May 2026	1011.99	1012.00	-11.78

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave Here comes the next WWB/DWKW
 

 

^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.”

 

I like focusing on where the +30C warm pools are. Since the actual forcing driving our sensible weather follows those areas. The current forecast is for split forcing centers near the Dateline and off of Mexico in late May.That Dateline forcing is closer to near record Nino 4 and MJO 7 and the forcing further east is with the record +PMM.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO vs PNA VP