2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold 500mb lows spinning out over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days. In my opinion, until we break the Arctic Ice melt record from 2012, we are going to be in decadal -PDO. July has also been super wet here in this post-2017, 60-90N -SLP pattern. It will be very interesting to see what the Arctic pattern is next Summer after the Super Nino warms global temps, and the Solar Cycle wanes. 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hell Yeah! Let's go set us a 300,000 year record with this Nino!

I want to get so much rain in Texas! I want moisture feeds straight from the Equator and storm systems to just stall over south central Texas for days and days and days and days!

I want a truly BROBDINGNAGIAN amount of rain from this thru June 2027!

July has been a really wet month since 2017, so it might have less to do with the El Nino and more to do with the pattern. We'll find out after this month I think. 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

CFS has a huge trend bias. I would like to see cooler subsurface waters start to appear. 

It significantly precedes. I remember seeing an image of Dec 1972 where the whole subsurface was extremely cold during Super Nino. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

[mitchnick]

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino. 

[mitchnick]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino. 

This is December.  Loop through it. They're not bad thanks to lower heights.

Edit: NNE is obviously warmer as in most moderate or strong Niños 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

2nd Edit: Here's the link to 850 temps starting December 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator. 

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas.

You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998.  This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño.

The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. 

The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019.

Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon.

So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s? 
 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas.

You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998.  This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño.

The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. 

The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019.

Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon.

So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s? 
 

Plenty of ocean heat to be re-distributed, as ocean heat content increased at a rapid pace in the first quarter. The ocean as a whole is warming much faster now vs 97/98.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

We will all take this.  Yes this will be a strong El Nino but its way too early to say what this upcoming winter will be like. 

How will the NAO, AO , PNA and EPO be ? MJO ? Alot of factors. 

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

@donsutherland1

 

It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe. 

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe. 

The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak:

Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) :

 

3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35  (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)

 

 

[bluewave]

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast.

 

 

 

Correlation 

 

Verification 

 

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. 

 

 

 

Correlation 

 

Verification 

 

Don’t they pretty much always do that?  The last two winters defaulted to a Nina look. That didn’t turn out too well either. 

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, roardog said:

Don’t they pretty much always do that?  The last two winters defaulted to a Nina look. That didn’t turn out too well either. 

Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I pointed this out a couple of months ago and got roasted for it.

Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast.

 

 

 

Correlation 

 

Verification 

 

CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast.

 

 

 

Correlation 

 

Verification 

 

Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times.

Honestly, I  seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point. 

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule. 

I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times.

Honestly, I  seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point. 

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

[mitchnick]

Just now, qg_omega said:

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

Temps and snowfall aside for a second, my beef is this utter delusional weenie crap that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow magically overwhelm a historic ++ENSO is by far and away the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life, hands down. Pure stupidity, fantasy and Land of Make Believe garbage. It completely defies the laws of physics and reality 

[LakePaste25]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy 

Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao. 

[LakePaste25]

Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October. 

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times.

Honestly, I  seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point. 

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns.

We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events

This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts.

With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well.

The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.  But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015.

2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. 

The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. 

During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern.

Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing.

19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. 

So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. 

Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the  1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. 

My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

Too many variables, too many different areas of forcing, PDO signal is a total mismatch from a super Nino. Climo is out the window