2026-2027 Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, Jebman said:

Man I wish they had a live webcam - They make Mammoth Ski Resort look like the DMV in a La Nada winter.

I am SOOOOOOOO damn Jealous of all their snow.

I'd love to kick back on a Texas lawn chair on their ski parking lot and watch that snow pile up all around me lol.

There was lots of snow left in the mountains when I went to Alaska last month! The last flakes of the season at Detroit were May 2nd. So if we can squeeze out early flakes in October, there will only be 3 calendar months in 2026 I don't see snow of some kind.

[snowman19]

The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027

The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb




And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.