2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Maxim]

On 5/25/2026 at 6:20 AM, bluewave said:

Most of the guidance missed the record 100° heat last week from the long range guidance earlier in the month. Models don’t do very well with extremes beyond the week one and week two forecast periods.

My guess is that the guidance beyond 15 days just reverts to whatever ENSO climo applies to the situation. In this case it was the usually cooler May climo it was forecasting to continue.

So it missed the strong MJO 4-6 pulse which is very warm in the East. This was also why the Euro and other seasonal models missed the warmth in the East for the 2023-2024 super El Niño. They had the stock El Niño composite with a deep trough in the East.

Instead we got the record MJO 4-6 pulse with the more Niña-like January 2024 even with the recent +2.1 ONI in Nino 3.4. So the long range model forecasts were reverting to the typical El Niño 500mb composite. 

Something similar happened in December 2015 with the long range model forecasts missing the record warmth in the East due to the record MJO 5. 

So long range models like to forecast just for whatever the ENSO is and they can’t resolve the MJO activity in the IO to WPAC. The record warm pool there has been resulting in more frequent and stronger MJO 4-7 activity than the old days when the SSTs were significantly cooler there. 
 

 

If I recall correctly, something similar happened in Feb 2024 when models were predicting a snowy and cold outcome most of the Midwest/East, but instead ended up being a legendary torch month with Fargo putting up an insane +17.5° departure. Though I can’t remember why exactly the cold/snowy forecasts busted so bad. Not sure if it was MJO related, but it was the warmest Feb on record for numerous cities, including my own. I do know the pac jet extension at the time was ridiculous, so that played a role surely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this is correct, we would smash the current RONI record (1982-83) by an entire degree. It would also smash the traditional ONI record….

EDIT BY LEON:
 

I love how you mock those on Social Media who dare to suggest that the ONI may not top 2.5, and then quote a dude suggesting that his incorrect interpretation of the RONI forecast could trigger "dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years".

'Cmon, Adam...you're better than that.

[snowman19]

“The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system.

The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Maxim said:

If I recall correctly, something similar happened in Feb 2024 when models were predicting a snowy and cold outcome most of the Midwest/East, but instead ended up being a legendary torch month with Fargo putting up an insane +17.5° departure. Though I can’t remember why exactly the cold/snowy forecasts busted so bad. Not sure if it was MJO related, but it was the warmest Feb on record for numerous cities, including my own. I do know the pac jet extension at the time was ridiculous, so that played a role surely.

Feb 2024 was NOT forecast to be a cold month in the midwest.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2024-02/Feb2024_tempoutlook.gif?itok=NFbaJvRE

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 2024 was NOT forecast to be a cold month in the midwest.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2024-02/Feb2024_tempoutlook.gif?itok=NFbaJvRE

Yea, I was thinking the same thing. That was supposed to be a mild winter that ended up even milder than expected.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was thinking the same thing. That was supposed to be a mild winter that ended up even milder than expected.

Exactly. The mean winter temp departures were very impressive considering it was all Dec/Feb. January was a decent winter month.

[LakePaste25]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was thinking the same thing. That was supposed to be a mild winter that ended up even milder than expected.

Pac jet came in stronger than expected in Feb 2024, which pushed the jet exit region well onshore over the western US. One of the few times we got true Nino forcing, we got too much of it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Pac jet came in stronger than expected in Feb 2024, which pushed the jet exit region well onshore over the western US. One of the few times we got true Nino forcing, we got too much of it. 

Yea, what could go wrong, went wrong that season.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, what could go wrong, went wrong that season.

Yeah, a super El Niño can actually be warmer than expected when overlapping with Niña-like influences.

First, the westward lean to the forcing back to MJO 7 probably helped drop the Nino-ridge further south than is typical for El Niño in February.

Then the big ridge east of Japan and the strong +WPO along with the EPAC Nino forcing carved out a trough just off the West Coast leading to the -PDO.  

So the Nino trough typically in the Mid-Atlantic was suppressed out toward Bermuda.

Also note the Aleutian Low splitting with a piece over the Bering and just off the West Coast.

The one bright spot that month was the record STJ streak near DC and narrow snow band into Central NJ. But it was too narrowly focused to extend much beyond the localized geographic region.

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

It wasn't supposed to be as warm as it was, which is the point. It was supposed to be mild, though.

Yea, I def. fell into that trap to a degree.......it's tough to wipe the slate clean an not try to overcompensate for the previous effort's errors. Hey, least we know I don't have unilateral cold bias now. haha I def. thought the polar domain would prevent a 1972 redux that season, but it didn't work out. The other mistake I made was misinterpreting the competing cool ENSO influence as some sort of Modoki influence.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 2024 was NOT forecast to be a cold month in the midwest.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2024-02/Feb2024_tempoutlook.gif?itok=NFbaJvRE

I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic.

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between.

In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West.

[LakePaste25]

Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed  convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

That cansips was from Sept though...pretty far out. 

[forkyfork]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month

[roardog]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

1997. deal with it

[George001]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 and the current subsurface structure (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

 It sad, getting old! All the fine posts by well versed members/meteorologists and the only thing I remember is “copulating anus”. As always ….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming.  Definitely taking on an east-based look

[LakePaste25]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

Curious to see the S hemisphere height anomalies for the ensembles. As they go into the cold season, are we seeing their counterpart to the deep Aleutian/GOA low? Asking because I don’t have access to good SH height anomaly ensemble maps.