2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997
 

^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving.

The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection.

Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.”

 

 

 

 

I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.

Why?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why?

A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. 

But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98?

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023.

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

You thinking wall to Wall torch or torch periods? Im not sure on wall to wall.

If I had to rate the strong nino winters since 1972 from most to least desirable, I assume it ranks different than yours.

1991-92

1987-88

1972-73

2015-16

1997-98 & 2023-24 (tie)

1982-83

[Typhoon Tip]

Breakin' records and taken numbers

[LakePaste25]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

Yeah Dec ‘97 vs. ‘15 were night and day especially for the high elevations of NE. There is a difference between mild pacific air from a jet extension and mild pacific air from a jet extension + subtropical Gulf flow from the SE ridge. The former (‘97) is serviceable. 

[roardog]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

I never said that. If you think all that warm water around Nino 4 compared to 1997 doesn’t make a big difference with forcing then I guess we’ll just disagree. 

[roardog]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Breakin' records and taken numbers

For all I know this could be the rate the water flushes out of my toilet. I don’t even know what I’m looking at. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”

[qg_omega]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYh3sZ1xYsK/?igsh=MWNhZjluY2RzeHVlaw==

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx

Here is an English translation of this disco on the super Nino/+IOD effects:

“Look, as I indicated in my pinned tweet's prediction, the analogs are supporting it. The occurrence of very strong El Niño conditions simultaneously with a positive IOD tends to lead to a shift of the tropical convective core along the ITCZ toward the eastern-central Pacific; in this process, deep convection over the Maritime Continent is suppressed. I drew the ITCZ areas on the data.

This structure weakens and fragments the Walker circulation, disrupts zonal (east-west) continuity, and particularly supports the formation of anomalous upper-level divergence over the eastern Pacific basin. The resulting overturning circulation anomalies strengthen convection in the equatorial Pacific while increasing subsidence-induced drying conditions in the Maritime Continent region around Indonesia and its surroundings.

It will significantly affect the mid-latitudes through MJO/BSIO and teleconnections”
 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

^ Regarding region 1+2: “We haven’t seen anything like this since 1997”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think they’re missing a rather ominous thing there and that the replacement water in the western Pacific is a higher launching pad
That’s causing … or could effect rather synergistically warmer scenario overall

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

For all I know this could be the rate the water flushes out of my toilet. I don’t even know what I’m looking at. 

Haha. Yeah, it’s pretty nondescript, huh?
 

It’s actually in reference to the fully annotated and accredited post that I made yesterday I don’t know how many pages ago it is  not more than a couple  the depiction shows that the current exceedances into historic territory is even more so

Source is from climate analyzer and those are the total global temperature means different years presented. The dark brown is 2026 and we are currently in the month of May in that graphical presentation

[raindancewx]

The first big test for the 2023 comparison is the big Mexican heat wave in June 2023. That's very rare in El Ninos back to 1870s there. Only a couple in the 1950s and 1982 had it before 2023 in June, and really the 1982 heat wave core was closer to Texas. May to date is a Warm West / Cold Eastern 2/3 US pattern, while May 2023 was a warm north central pattern / cold east setup. So it's pretty different so far. Models don't really have any excessive heat waves for Mexico in May-June I can see. It's been a bit warm there this month, but more from warm nights with rain and near average highs from what I can see.

The ~98F today in Philadelphia is actually similar to heat waves in May 1991, 1941, 1987, 1939, 2006, 1986 events. No May heat waves present in years like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015 from what I can see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You thinking wall to Wall torch or torch periods? Im not sure on wall to wall.

If I had to rate the strong nino winters since 1972 from most to least desirable, I assume it ranks different than yours.

1991-92

1987-88

1972-73

2015-16

1997-98 & 2023-24 (tie)

1982-83

I Just mean in the aggregate for the season. I haven't really dug in yet.

[snowman19]

Here comes the next WWB round of surface and subsurface warming and strengthening. This is going to spark off another DWKW. Think the June model runs go wild with the peak. And in other news, the ++PMM continues to rage
 

[George001]

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years? My thoughts are this developing super nino is a response to the persistent and intense La Niña background state we have been in (delayed oscillation effect, I know Ray has mentioned this idea in his blogs several times over the years). 
 

I was thinking in March that the super Nino idea might not pan out because we just had a strong event in 23-24, but perhaps that “la nino” was a strong El Niño inside a persistent Nina background state, and this is the real regime changing El Niño (that will compare to previous more traditional super El Niños rather than a La Nino)? I have to say, we don’t see eye to eye often but I have to agree with Adam about how this event is developing. He struggled last winter, but he has been on point about this early developing El Niño. It’s more basinwide than east based right now, but I don’t think it really matters in terms of winter prospects. If he’s right about the strength, the warmth will be everywhere (as is standard in super ninos), and it likely will leak more east anyways like 97-98 because super ninos tend to do that historically. I know there has been some pushback on that analog, but no analogs are perfect. 97-98 is good enough at a high level. My top analogs right now are 97-98, 15-16, and 82-83. 

[LakePaste25]

16 hours ago, roardog said:

I never said that. If you think all that warm water around Nino 4 compared to 1997 doesn’t make a big difference with forcing then I guess we’ll just disagree. 

If you’re talking the difference between 97-98 and 15-16, I don’t think it matters as much as one might think it does in terms of winter prospects. 97-98 could’ve easily had a mid atlantic KU blizzard just like 82-83, 15-16 did. Maybe 15-16 had more cold periods, but that’s it. The reason we prefer a 97-98 outcome is because it will eradicate the W pac warm pool. 

[bluewave]

Definitely more of a La Niña flavor with the forcing moving from the IO into the WPAC.

Places like Manchester, New Hampshire tied their all-time May high temperature. So a first for such a strong developing El Niño.

You will notice how the previous years occurred during developing La Niña summers after El Niño winters. Plus following La Niña winters continuing into the next year.

Earlier in May was more of Nino-like pattern with a stronger +PNA and trough in the East. So a continuation of mixed influences with the developing super El Niño and record warm pool from the IO to WPAC. 

Long range models missed this record warm up and tropical convection moving from the IO into WPAC leading to a very strong Southeast ridge.
 

Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	97	Developing Super El Niño
-	2010	97	Developing La Niña
2	1941	96	Multiyear Strong El Niño start in 1940
3	2022	95	Multiyear La Nina
4	2021	94	Multiyear La Niña
-	2017	94	Multiyear La Nina
-	2016	94	Developing La Nina
-	2013	94	Neutral
-	2007	94	Developing La Niña
-	1889	94	Developing La Niña
5	2024	93	Developing La Niña
-	2018	93	Uncoupled El Niño after La Niña

[A-L-E-K]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be a torch

[LakePaste25]

Can’t wait for the “not a torch!!!” copium on twitter because it’s 45 and cloudy in nyc under a CAD setup while it torches everywhere else 

[buckeye]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You thinking wall to Wall torch or torch periods? Im not sure on wall to wall.

If I had to rate the strong nino winters since 1972 from most to least desirable, I assume it ranks different than yours.

1991-92

1987-88

1972-73

2015-16

1997-98 & 2023-24 (tie)

1982-83

A super nino winter can also hold surprises and extreme events even though the overall backdrop is above normal temps.   I think Cincy had it's greatest 24 hr snowfall in Feb of '98.    Weird cut off low dropping snow to the south and rain to the north.    It probably won't be completely boring and I'm sure there will be some fantasy storms to track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years? My thoughts are this developing super nino is a response to the persistent and intense La Niña background state we have been in (delayed oscillation effect, I know Ray has mentioned this idea in his blogs several times over the years). 
 

I was thinking in March that the super Nino idea might not pan out because we just had a strong event in 23-24, but perhaps that “la nino” was a strong El Niño inside a persistent Nina background state, and this is the real regime changing El Niño (that will compare to previous more traditional super El Niños rather than a La Nino)? I have to say, we don’t see eye to eye often but I have to agree with Adam about how this event is developing. He struggled last winter, but he has been on point about this early developing El Niño. It’s more basinwide than east based right now, but I don’t think it really matters in terms of winter prospects. If he’s right about the strength, the warmth will be everywhere (as is standard in super ninos), and it likely will leak more east anyways like 97-98 because super ninos tend to do that historically. I know there has been some pushback on that analog, but no analogs are perfect. 97-98 is good enough at a high level. My top analogs right now are 97-98, 15-16, and 82-83. 

I would take my chances with another 1997 versus 2023.