2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen.  Going to be a warm November and December.

I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.

[stadiumwave]

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19

Yea, 1807 was up there on my list.

Good stuff, though...he reminds me a bit of Jim Hughes with the space weather focus.

[forkyfork]

 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Newman said:

1982-83 was a rough winter for the Dakotas regarding seasonal snowfall totals:

Grand Forks ND: 16.9" of snow (31.5" below normal)

Aberdeen SD: 18.9" of snow (23.8" below normal)

Fargo ND: 23.2" of snow (28.2" below normal)

Rapid City SD: 24.9" of snow (23.5" below normal)

Bismarck ND: 32.2" of snow (18.3" below normal)

International Falls MN: 46" of snow (26.9" below normal)

 

However, some other places across the upper Midwest ended up near normal to even well above normal like Duluth, Minneapolis, Marquette, other portions of Wisconsin and UP Michigan. So it's important to remember that, even on these maps showing a blazing red torch across the upper Midwest, it's all relative to normal and it can still snow there.

It always snows in the upper midwest and Lakes. The bigger issue in strong ninos for northern areas is ice thickness, snow retention, and potential abnormally dry weather patterns. Winter recreation is big in northern states, and warm nino winters put a damper on the norm....but it certainly snows.

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology. 

1. A lot of it in the South is, indeed, from clouds limiting the high temps and rain leading to evaporative cooling. But there’s also dynamically induced cooling during storms due to the strong ST jet. I realize it isn’t modeling a “cold pattern” with Arctic air dominating, which I never said.

2. CWG referred to an EW H5 map at day 45 and in a blanket fashion said this was a “very warm” pattern. That same model’s 2m maps for weeks 4-6 are literally disagreeing with CWG’s “very warm” pattern. That’s what first got me to post about this. Most (S 2/3) of the U.S. is NN to BN on that model run!

3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain especially for shorter periods within the winter. Even during very strong El Niños, there have been intervals of Arctic cold dominating though Jan/Feb have had them more frequently than Dec. For example at NYC:

-1/18-24/2016

-2/11-15/2016

-1/15-20/1992

-2/9-13/1992

-12/9-14/1982

-1/16-22/1983

-2/5-13/1983

-1/6-13/1973

-2/9-18/1973

-1/25-2/7/1966

-12/12-23/1888

-2/1889 very cold

-1/1-9/1878

-1/28-2/5/1878

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same.

 I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW). OTOH, it often is warm in the E US near and for a couple of weeks after SSWs.

 This is a forecasting discussion, not a crystal ball discussion.

The Euro weeklies were absolutely bullied in this forum last winter for their expected inaccuracy past week 2 (they showed cold), but i have a feeling we will be seeing the same ones posting weeks 5 and 6 often this winter.

[chris21]

I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.

My average temp in December is 31-32 degrees. If I’m 1-2 degrees below average with that much precip, I’m going to be in business. Dec 97 redux


.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.

Textbook year of what you want in a Nina winter here. Well above avg snowfall, well above avg snowcover/snow depth, and well below avg temps.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain especially for shorter periods within the winter.

The big warm signal for this winter was beginning to be outlined as early as last spring when we were getting the first hints at how historic this super El Niño was going to become.

I agree that over shorter one week to 10 day periods throughout an entire 3 month winter season there can be some variation from the seasonal primary temperature departure pattern.

But the one shorter term temperature pattern that has become very reliable has been the warm up from around December 17th to 25th which has occurred every year since 2011 from Philly to NYC.

Many times the longer term models from early in December miss this warm up. So the closer to forecast time we get the models correct warmer.

 

Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	61	0
2024-12-25	63	0
2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	59	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	65	0
2019-12-25	52	0
2018-12-25	65	0
2017-12-25	61	0
2016-12-25	60	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	65	0
2013-12-25	68	0
2012-12-25	60	0
2011-12-25	63	0

 

Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	58	0
2024-12-25	59	0
2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	61	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0

 

Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	59	0
2024-12-25	61	0
2023-12-25	64	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	62	0
2020-12-25	62	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	57	0
2016-12-25	59	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	64	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	57	0
2011-12-25	62	0

[stadiumwave]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

 

A SPV disruption would not affect the troposphere that fast anyway. Usually 2-5 weeks...IF, IF, IF it downdwells into the troposphere. I have doubts of much affect. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

A SPV disruption would not affect the troposphere that fast anyway. Usually 2-5 weeks...IF, IF, IF it downdwells into the troposphere. I have doubts of much affect. 

I agree with your post 100% except that I would substitute 4-6 weeks for your 2-5 weeks for this early in the season per @Stormchaserchuck1if it is going to occur. So, a map at 330 hours is irrelevant. Often the initial 3 week period is actually warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The big warm signal for this winter was beginning to be outlined as early as last spring when we were getting the first hints at how historic this super El Niño was going to become.

I agree that over shorter one week to 10 day periods throughout an entire 3 month winter season there can be some variation from the seasonal primary temperature departure pattern.

But the one shorter term temperature pattern that has become very reliable has been the warm up from around December 17th to 25th which has occurred every year since 2011 from Philly to NYC.

Many times the longer term models from early in December miss this warm up. So the closer to forecast time we get the models correct warmer.

 

Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	61	0
2024-12-25	63	0
2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	59	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	65	0
2019-12-25	52	0
2018-12-25	65	0
2017-12-25	61	0
2016-12-25	60	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	65	0
2013-12-25	68	0
2012-12-25	60	0
2011-12-25	63	0

 

Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	58	0
2024-12-25	59	0
2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	61	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0

 

Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	59	0
2024-12-25	61	0
2023-12-25	64	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	62	0
2020-12-25	62	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	57	0
2016-12-25	59	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	64	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	57	0
2011-12-25	62	0

Absolutely savagely ruthless...I always dread seeing any optimistic prose from you because I know what the nature of the follow up point will be.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-25	61	0
2024-12-25	63	0
2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	59	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	65	0
2019-12-25	52	0
2018-12-25	65	0
2017-12-25	61	0
2016-12-25	60	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	65	0
2013-12-25	68	0
2012-12-25	60	0
2011-12-25	63	0

Pretty funny how this no snow winter is the one oddball year that didn't have a warm up at PHL.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely savagely ruthless...I always dread seeing any optimistic prose from you because I know the what nature of the follow up point will be.

 He should open Ruthless Chris Steak House. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

What A FUCKING RIPOFF. Despite being a super hyper-awesome El Nino, we're in a ever-expanding drought. Models keep delaying the "sure to come" El Nino climatology in perpetuity. It's gonna be in September! No October! JK November! Nah it's actually gonna be December!  Screw off

[BeastFromTheEast]

4 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What A FUCKING RIPOFF. Despite being a super hyper-awesome El Nino, we're in a ever-expanding drought. Models keep delaying the "sure to come" El Nino climatology in perpetuity. It's gonna be in September! No October! JK November! Nah it's actually gonna be December!  Screw off

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What A FUCKING RIPOFF. Despite being a super hyper-awesome El Nino, we're in a ever-expanding drought. Models keep delaying the "sure to come" El Nino climatology in perpetuity. It's gonna be in September! No October! JK November! Nah it's actually gonna be December!  Screw off

Patience 

[chris21]

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology. 

There will be a lot of snow also in the higher elevations of the SE above 3500 feet. It snows in September here, we don’t need arctic air.


.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What A FUCKING RIPOFF. Despite being a super hyper-awesome El Nino, we're in an ever-expanding drought. Models keep delaying the "sure to come" El Nino climatology in perpetuity. It's gonna be in September! No October! JK November! Nah it's actually gonna be December!  Screw off

The wetness in Houston and other S areas in a very strong El Niño typically doesn’t get going reliably til sometime in November.

[Tallis Rockwell]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The wetness in Houston and other S areas in a very strong El Niño typically doesn’t get going reliably til sometime in November.

God I hope it'll come,

[GaWx]

 The AAM has in recent days become more balanced than it was before by latitude: @40/70 Benchmark

[GaWx]

 The relative Oct monthly NOAA OISST was just released: more E based as we already knew

Year…..Mo….1+2…….3……….3.4………4

2026    4      1.16     0.07     0.43     -0.03
2026    5      1.40     0.68     0.56      0.46
2026    6      2.33     1.21     0.75      1.04
2026    7      2.84     1.73     0.34      1.38
2026    8      3.35     2.49     0.10      1.75
2026    9      4.01     3.00     0.00      2.09
2026   10      4.43     3.56     0.11      2.47

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, chris21 said:

There will be a lot of snow also in the higher elevations of the SE above 3500 feet. It snows in September here, we don’t need arctic air.


.

You definitely live in a really beautiful microclimate which many people never get to experience outside vacations.
 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely savagely ruthless...I always dread seeing any optimistic prose from you because I know what the nature of the follow up point will be.

Any tools that aid in long range forecasting are a positive in my book. Reactions to specific weather outcomes are a very subjective experience. While many people on this forum like cold winters, most of the population enjoy low heating bills and milder temperatures.

[GaWx]

 The GEFS PNA prog for the 1st 1/2 of Nov once again looks impressively positive for the 8th day in a row:

 Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.1 (after adjusting a little downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? Only 1997 was the least bit similar:

2023: -0.1

2015: -0.2

2009: -0.3

1997: +1.2

1991: +0.1

1986: -0.9

1982: -0.3

1972: +0.1

1965: -0.5

1957:  0.0

 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

[GaWx]

 The new Euro Weeklies remain mild and even are very slightly warmer than yesterday for weeks 2-3. Regarding the cooler weeks 4-6 vs earlier weeks that we were just discussing, they’re still significantly cooler than weeks 2-3 but came in a little milder overall vs yesterday’s run, especially weeks 4-5. Week 6 is similar to yesterday (only very slightly milder).

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The AAM has in recent days become more balanced than it was before by latitude: @40/70 Benchmark

Need to see it sustained...it keeps trying to do normalize, then reverts back...

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You definitely live in a really beautiful microclimate which many people never get to experience outside vacations.
 

Any tools that aid in long range forecasting are a positive in my book. Reactions to specific weather outcomes are a very subjective experience. While many people on this forum like cold winters, most of the population enjoy low heating bills and milder temperatures.

I'm not gonna lie, I don't mind the warmth right now given that I have to pay for oil.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh ... ever get the sense we'll be in here 71 days from now still assessing all these ways to get a winter outside the windows while we're rolling up seasonally blunted heat wave after heat wave... 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, it'd be nothing shy of marvelous if in the face of all ... nothing exceptional worth turd of mention actually happened through April.  

that would be sooo awesome