2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its ridiculous. Its also ridiculous that every single post that so much as mentions seasonal variability, weather patterns, it will snow etc, needs to be prefaced with the repetitious "we know it will be a mild winter overall" or the the favorite "an unfavorable pattern most of the time". That shouldn't be necessary to repeat every single time.

Ive said it before and ill say it again. It isnt snow weenies- who long ago set their expectations for a subpar winter '26-27- that will be disappointed come spring. Its the trolls, few but very vocal, who actually believe in the snowless warm winter that would defy all logic which they are touting. They go far too warm/snowless every winter regardless of the signs, so a super nino is all that was needed to release the insanity.

Once upon a time, this place used to have moderators....that crap detracts from the quality of threads and suspensions should be dished out...everyone knows to whom I'm referring...not someone like Chris or Adam, who do nothing but add value, even though they love them some warm.

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Once upon a time, this place used to have moderators....that crap detracts from the quality of threads and suspensions should be dished out...everyone knows to whom I'm referring...not someone like Chris or Adam, who do nothing but add value, even though they love them some warm.

I look at it with expectations. I love cold and snow. And im fortunate to live where even in the warmest winters, there is cold and snow. So having a grasp and good bit of knowledge about what to expect for the coming winter before it even begins is a huge help because it helps set expectations. When the pattern looks good, i set expectations high. I thought last year was a great winter because it was cold and white. Nearly nonstop cold and snowcover so outdoor winter activities could be done whenever I wanted. Want to wait til next week to take the nephews sledding? No worry, snow isnt going anywhere.

This winter is a strong Nino. I know that means when the final numbers are tallied, its going to be a subpar winter. Expectations set. Will have to savor the snow/cold more than normal when its here. But I certainly dont know the details. So daily discussion/updates in this thread, as we head through benign weather amid gorgeous Fall colors, is nice to read as we get closer and closer to winter. When these unrealistic troll comments appear, its not that they worry me (or any other snowlover) like "oooh what if theyre right?", because we know theyre not. Its more of an annoyance, kind of like, we are all adults with a hobby in common, why the hell cant we just have adult conversation!?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[EasternLI]

11 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Euro op verbatim actually had a SSW wind reversal at 12z. That's an outlier, obviously needs to be tossed. There's been no support for that. Weird set of runs at 12z though. It's strange to me seeing the EPS more bullish than the GEFS in the strat... Usually it's the opposite. Euro AI is more like American guidance, but I don't know how well the Euro AI handles the strat either. Will be interesting to see which idea is more correct. It's crazy early to be just considering any of that too but here we are.

 

 

Euro op verbatim did that again at 00z FWIW. Interesting. On the very off chance, should one occur. Would be the earliest on record if I'm not mistaken.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Models are starting to show a N pacific low. The low being displaced far eastward into the EPO domain makes sense to me. 

 

The models have been forecasting that low become more consolidated this month beyond 240 hrs. But once we get to under 240 hrs, the low is showing up more split. With one piece back toward the Bering Sea and another into the SW CONUS.

My guess is that the splitting is a function of the stronger mid-latitude ridges leading to the warm pool from Japan to east of Hawaii. The effect of this ridge is to keep the PDO negative instead of strongly positive.

The stronger eastward extension into the SW CONUS is probably a result of how east based the forcing is. So the significance of the warmth making it down to Atlanta is the ridge split leading to a stronger Southeast ridge than usual with the more -PDO pattern.

The combination so far has been to enhance the El Nino warming through a stronger ridge across the CONUS. This is why October and the pattern since May has been so much warmer than usual for a super El Nino. 

New run for November 1st

Old run

 

[GaWx]

On 10/21/2026 at 7:59 PM, GaWx said:

It appears per models that due to a combo of a large Tahiti SLP rise/smaller Darwin fall and despite it being way down at -43 today, it should break the very long current -SOI streak and go positive by ~Oct 25th. That means that the current -SOI streak would end near 74 days.

Indeed, the -SOI went + on Oct 24th (today) making it 72 days:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[GaWx]

 The CFS 10 day for Nov has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:

 

20 days ago:

[FPizz]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, the -SOI went + on Oct 24th (today) making it 72 days:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

6.77 i saw.  

[MJO812]

DT

[snowman19]

This extreme warmth is about to be realized at the surface come December. The +4C December peak being shown by the EURO is absolutely believable and very likely

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have been forecasting that low become more consolidated this month beyond 240 hrs. But once we get to under 240 hrs, the low is showing up more split. With one piece back toward the Bering Sea and another into the SW CONUS.

My guess is that the splitting is a function of the stronger mid-latitude ridges leading to the warm pool from Japan to east of Hawaii. The effect of this ridge is to keep the PDO negative instead of strongly positive.

The stronger eastward extension into the SW CONUS is probably a result of how east based the forcing is. So the significance of the warmth making it down to Atlanta is the ridge split leading to a stronger Southeast ridge than usual with the more -PDO pattern.

The combination so far has been to enhance the El Nino warming through a stronger ridge across the CONUS. This is why October and the pattern since May has been so much warmer than usual for a super El Nino. 

New run for November 1st

Old run

 

Record warmth possible to start November

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Record warmth possible to start November

You're actually right this time. Upper 70s in my forecast right now. Could be 80+ for 2-3 days. Crazy stuff

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have been forecasting that low become more consolidated this month beyond 240 hrs. But once we get to under 240 hrs, the low is showing up more split. With one piece back toward the Bering Sea and another into the SW CONUS.

My guess is that the splitting is a function of the stronger mid-latitude ridges leading to the warm pool from Japan to east of Hawaii. The effect of this ridge is to keep the PDO negative instead of strongly positive.

The stronger eastward extension into the SW CONUS is probably a result of how east based the forcing is. So the significance of the warmth making it down to Atlanta is the ridge split leading to a stronger Southeast ridge than usual with the more -PDO pattern.

The combination so far has been to enhance the El Nino warming through a stronger ridge across the CONUS. This is why October and the pattern since May has been so much warmer than usual for a super El Nino. 

New run for November 1st

Old run

 

New run looks like my Dec-Jan composite 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're actually right this time. Upper 70s in my forecast right now. Could be 80+ for 2-3 days. Crazy stuff

This was actually a very easy call. I could see it months ago that we were going to have a warm beginning of November, like 2020, 2022, and 2024.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Euro op verbatim did that again at 00z FWIW. Interesting. On the very off chance, should one occur. Would be the earliest on record if I'm not mistaken.

I high doubt we see the full reversal, but would be interesting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The CFS 10 day for Nov has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:

 

20 days ago:

That should lock in through December and much of January. 

[snowman19]

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That should lock in through December and much of January. 

We're gonna have a non winter like the west experienced last year. Probably a real wake up call for many when we're seeing multiple days of 70s in Jan/Feb and zero snow.  

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna have a non winter like the west experienced last year. Probably a real wake up call for many when we're seeing multiple days of 70s in Jan/Feb and zero snow.  

Okay forky

 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Bold

Ill take the easy under on multiple days in the 70s in Jan/Feb and the easy over on zero snow.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The CFS 10 day for Nov has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:

 

20 days ago:

Ironically it continues to warm November and cool December. 

[mitchnick]

Gefs fwiw

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs fwiw

A little more optimistic we could see a December 1997 like outcome rather than a full blown torch, but still need to see where this goes 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

A little more optimistic we could see a December 1997 like outcome rather than a full blown torch, but still need to see where this goes 

November looks shot in the east....no surprise there. December might have a chance looking at the Cfs2 and Euro weeklies, but it's a ways off for the weeklies at this point to be nothing more than a general idea.

[Keith Central PA]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna have a non winter like the west experienced last year. Probably a real wake up call for many when we're seeing multiple days of 70s in Jan/Feb and zero snow.  

That's pretty bold. I can see days in the 50's like other Super Nino's, but multiple days in the 70's? and no snow at all?... That's really extreme!

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

November looks shot in the east....no surprise there. December might have a chance looking at the Cfs2 and Euro weeklies, but it's a ways off for the weeklies at this point to be nothing more than a general idea.

November in any winter is always a crapshoot regardless of enso. But its highly likely that at least one blast of winter weather will hit (at least the Great Lakes). So in this case, im fine with a mild start to November. No guarantees but it betters the odds of a cold shot around Thanksgiving. November is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st to last day of the month.

[MJO812]

Steve D

[snowman19]

A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one.  I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one.  I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means

Can't speak for him, but he may have been just using the phrase to describe the atmosphere from the input of the record Niño. 

[snowman19]

Can't speak for him, but he may have been just using the phrase to describe the atmosphere from the input of the record Niño. 

An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption